Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Cranbourne on Friday, October 11th.
The Pinker Pinker Plate is tonight's feature race, leading into Sunday's Cranbourne Cup meeting.
Tonight's track is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail in the True position.
Cranbourne Racing Tips: Friday, October 11th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (9) Quantuk Mechanic
Best Value: Race 2 - (11) Saint Eustace
Race 1
I suspect (5) Aleda will slide across from the wide barrier to sit outside the leader here and I think from there she will take some beating. She's just had the one start, where she ran 2nd to Free Thrills, who then came out and was unlucky not to win again at its next start. This doesn't look a very deep field so if she's improved with that race experience, she'll be hard to beat tonight. (8) Charvet ran well on debut in the Ballarat Magic Millions last year, but only beat three runners home in two starts last prep. Has had a lengthy spell so will be interesting to see how she returns tonight. The stable are flying so watch the market with her, it should give us a good guide on her chances.
Race 2
This is a very low staying race so I'll only be playing very small here and on two roughies. (2) Byalip looks set to peak third up from a spell rising to 2000m here. He ran fairly first up at Sandown in a race that produced the winner of the lead up race to the Derby at Flemington last weekend, and he followed that with a good effort when running 3rd at Geelong last start. He worked home in the second-fastest final 400m of the race. He gets winkers applied for the first time today but he'll need to come from a long way back in the run. That's the little query. (11) Saint Eustace looks a good chance at a bit of value. He's the least experienced horse in the field with just the one start under his belt. That was over the mile at Benalla and even though he was beaten 4L, he had some excuses. Straight up to 2000m now and if he gets a clear run from the 600m he could be competitive in this with Dwayne Dunn aboard. Another that's drawn wide and will need a good ride. (10) Navarre looks the likely leader in a race that is devoid of speed. That gives him claims.
Value: (11) Saint Eustace $12
Race 3
(5) Budget King ran fairly on debut for 3rd and then failed when firm in the market last start at Benalla. He gets the blinkers removed for tonight which could help him settle a touch better. He's still only lightly-raced so has improvement to come. Draws well, Mott goes on and Lloyd Kennewell runners have a good record at Cranbourne so far this season. (9) Au Pair ran well over the mile two starts back when very heavily backed to win, but just found one better. Then went to Flemington and was outclassed. Drops back to the mile tonight and gets both the blinkers and the tongue tie applied for the first time, so they've really thrown the kitchen sink at it. Should be going close. (6) Memorialise looks the value at double figure odds.
Race 4
I have no idea what type of race this even is but it's basically for picnic horses. (4) Merry Magic can find herself on top. She is a 10-year-old mare first up from a spell. She's drawn gate one and the big thing in her favour is her terrific record at the track and distance, with three wins and a 2nd from five starts. The concern is they were mostly from yesteryear so it's hardly recent form, but it's more than what most of these have. (6) Sheer Force could be a bit of value. She's at least got a reasonable first up record. (1) Howling Wolf ran 3rd in this race last year carrying 72kg. This year he carries 76kg and has a wide draw.
Value: (6) Sheer Force $15
Race 5
(9) Quantum Mechanic was beaten 0.75L first up over 1300m at Bendigo and the horse that beat her then started favourite at Bendigo on Wednesday in midweek metro class. Those two pulled away from the horse that ran 3rd which is generally a good sign. She was only run down late and she was first up so should have improvement to come for today. She settled on speed last start so if she positions there once again she will be tough to get past. The nose roll goes on for the first time tonight. (7) Magnaflight could be the value at $9.50. I already mentioned earlier that Lloyd Kennewell runners have gone well at Cranbourne so far this season and she looks ready for the step up to 1400m now third up from a spell. She ran the third-fastest final 200m in defeat last start and she wasn't beaten all that far by a horse that ran 2nd in town on Wednesday, so her form is reasonably good coming into this. Drawn well and winkers go on, she's a chance.
Value: (7) Magnaflight $9.50
(9) Quantum Mechanic
$2.30
Race 6
I think we'll see (7) Lesage be allowed to run tonight. She resumed in a much harder race at Caulfield, where she bounded at the start and overraced badly throughout the race. Her form as a two-year-old was solid and the only query is whether she can back it up as a three-year-old. If she runs to her best here, she's the most likely winner. But I do think she needs to be allowed to roll in front from the good draw if she jumps cleanly. I think the value is (5) Saorsa, who has had two career victories which have both been when she's first up. Her victory last prep was over this track and distance too, so $15 looks a good price. (2) Arrochar is another at a bit of value to include. He like soft ground and has a decent first up record.
Race 7
If (2) Oceanex runs up to her best, she'll be winning this. She was one of the best runs of the day in defeat first up at Bendigo, then had no luck at all second up when caught wide without cover throughout, and last start she was beaten less than a length in the G2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley. That race was won by Group 1 winner Princess Jenni. She now steps up to 2000m for the first time this prep. Her only previous run at this distance was a victory at Flemington. With even luck she wins. (4) Dunlani could be a bit of value at $10. She's won two from three when second up from a spell and she ran fairly first up in the same race Oceanex ran 2nd in. She put in a similar performance first up last prep and then won second up at the Valley. She's the big improver tonight. (3) Annarbor and (5) No Effort are both flying and went locked to the line together last start. No Effort got the win on that occasion and even though Annarbor gets a 2kg weight swing tonight, their price difference looks wrong.
Race 8
Open race. (7) Extending resumed from a spell with victory at Sale. He was very well backed to win that day and landed some good bets. It was trainer Bruce Purcell's first and only runner so far this season. He should land on speed and looks set to give us a good run for our money. (9) Montaser should have finished closer first up but was held up late. His form behind the likes of Zoutori and Begood Toya Mother from last preparation looks outstanding for a Friday night BM64 at Cranbourne. Thomas Stockdale has just returned to the saddle which is my little query but with formlines like that I have to have something on. (2) Boltoutoftheblue has claims, as does (13) Aree Al.
Value: (7) Extending $7.50
Race 9
(7) Splendid was very heavily backed on debut back in April but failed to deliver as the favourite, however she made amends when saluting at her second career start. That was over 1400m and there was a big gap back to the 3rd horse. Whether she is sharp enough first up at 1200m is the query but she might have a bit of talent so I'll take the punt. (4) Tsushima gets blinkers applied for the first time here. She didn't have any luck first up at Bendigo, which was her first run back from a long spell. I think she can improve tonight with race fitness on her side, the blinkers on and hopefully a better run in transit from the good draw.
