Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, October 19th.
The Group 1 Caulfield Cup headlines the 10-race card, but there's a stack of other quality races, with two Group 2s, three Group 3s and two Listed races also programmed.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and the rail is in the True position.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips for Satuday's card below and CLICK HERE to view our comprehensive runner-by-runner preview of the G1 Caulfield Cup! You can also check out our comprehensive preview of The Everest HERE!
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, October 19th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (3) Hilo
Best Value: Race 7 - (7) Manolo Blahniq
Wide open race to kick off the program, with a number of winning hopes. (8) So You Swing looks a good each way bet here. He's won two of his past three starts and the one he didn't win, he ran enormous in defeat. He's drawn to get a good run from barrier 3 here and he should be competitive with Damian Lane going back aboard. (7) Arctic Shock finished 1.25L behind So You Swing last start but gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour. I do think he's a touch short at $4.40 but he can be competitive from the inside draw. (11) Vigere looks the leader in the race and there doesn't look a great deal of tempo. The stable are flying. (3) Starcaster makes his Australian debut for the Freedman stable. He's likely looking for longer than this but he's obviously a classy stayer and he's been gelded since his last start. (4) Jenkins ran well first up at Mornington, coming from last to be beaten a nose. (1) Grinzinger Star appeared disappointing last start but he went into that without a trial so has the potential to improve significantly. (5) Black Toff Affair isn't hopeless at all, and (9) Extreme Pride has won three on the bounce. Plenty of chances as you can see! One bet for me and that's So You Swing each way.
(8) So You Swing E/W
$8.00
Another competitive race but not much stands out here. (10) Need New Friends is a filly I was keen on last start at Bendigo but she was caught three-wide without cover throughout the race and had no luck. Oliver goes on today to take over from Ben Allen and Danny O'Brien has his stable going very well. I think she can bounce back at double figure odds here. (3) Pretty Brazen appreciated a steep drop back in grade last start. She began the prep racing against the likes of Libertini, Flit and Funstar, where she was well beaten, but she proved way too strong back to Class 1 company last start. The map is tricky here from barrier 13 but we saw Anaheed frank that Sydney form in the Blue Sapphire Stakes on Wednesday and we might see Pretty Brazen do the same here. They're the two I'll be having something on. Also wary of (1) Ready Set Sail and (12) Night Express.
Value: (10) Need New Friends $12
Keen to be with the Godolphin colt (3) Hilo. His form just stacks up everywhere you look. On debut back in May he ran 4th behind Missile Mantra, who came out and ran 2nd in the Thousand Guineas last weekend. Hilo then went out for a spell and returned with consecutive wins to start this preparation. He beat Southbank at Geelong two starts ago, and after that race she came out and ran 2nd in the Thousand Guineas Prelude and then 3rd in the Thousand Guineas. Hilo then ran in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude last start, where he was well beaten by Alligator Blood, but it's worth noting it was hard to make ground that day and they didn't go quick at all up front. He finished alongside Super Seth in that race, who then came out and won the Caulfield Guineas last weekend. So the formlines are there to suggest Hilo will be very hard to beat back in grade today. From barrier 4 he looks to get a terrific run and can settle closer to the speed than what he did last start. (1) Heirborn is Anthony Freedman's runner in the race and his stable is flying at the minute. He's undefeated from two starts and resumes from a 10-week break today. Expect a bold showing from him. (7) Triton Rising didn't get a lot of luck last start after going back from the wide gate. He can measure up.
Going to stick with (3) Warning, who was a last-start winner of the Super Impose Stakes at Flemington. He got clear running at about the 200m mark and charged away to win by 2L, recording 11.83sec for his final 200m, making him the only horse in the race to break 12 seconds. The step up to 2000m is no issue, it probably helps him even more so as long as he can get a good run and isn't left with too much ground to make up in the straight, he should be hard to beat on his way to the Derby. (7) Thought Of That broke its maiden at Donald last start, winning by 8L over the mile. He looks the leader here without too much competition for the front, so if he gets the race run to suit himself he could prove tough to run down. (9) Miami Bound steps up to 2000m at her fifth career start. She went down as favourite over the mile at Flemington last start. She found the front at the 150m mark before being run down. The step up to 2000m must be some concern based on that. (8) Serengeti isn't hopeless.
I think this is a really competitive little race and I found it hard to separate them. I've landed with the favourite (3) Soothing on top. She was very poor here first up but she's since bounced back, with a good effort for 2nd behind Mizzy in Sydney two starts ago followed by a dominant win in Adelaide last start. She's yet to win here from three attempts which is the concern, but it's noteworthy that Damian Lane jumps off last-start winner (4) Prophet's Thumb to ride her. (1) Demerara her stablemate could be the danger. She was a touch disappointing first up when she started favourite at Flemington, however that has proved to be an exceptional form race with the likes of Zoutori and Parsifal franking the form. She's had five weeks off since that run and she's never finished out of the top two when second up from a spell so she could bounce back. (5) Vinicunca returns from a long layoff. She's got plenty of ability but has clearly had problems. Nevertheless, Gai will have her fit for her first run back and Ollie rides. If she's at her best she'll give this a shake.
Value: (1) Demerara $5.50
Another competitive little race. (2) Celestial Falls should find the front here, just as she did when leading all the way to win the Oaks Trial at Flemington last start. I thought that effort was very good considering she was 1300m straight up to 1800m off a three-week break. She'll be much better off with that run under the belt so if she can find the front and get a soft lead, she'll be hard to catch again. (8) Gamay and (14) Cape Leopard filled the placings behind Celestial Falls and both could turn the tables here. Gamay sat three-wide the trip and fought on bravely for 2nd, while Cape Leopard rattled off the fourth fastest final 200m and 400m of the day to get within 1.75L. The step up to 2000m should be ideal for her, as will the better barrier draw. (7) Vegas Jewel bolted in at Moonee Valley last start to make it two wins from two starts. She's done nothing to suggest she won't relish the extra ground and prove very competitive. (4) Snapdancer brings strong formlines through the Thousand Guineas prelude but steps up from 1400m to 2000m, which could test her.
Value: (14) Cape Leopard $13
(2) Celestial Falls
$3.70
Going to have a little throw at the stumps here with (10) Mclaren, who resumes from a spell for the Snowdens, with Craig Williams booked to ride. This three-year-old is a rig, meaning he's got a testicle hidden in his stomach! He won a Group 3 on debut in Sydney back in February following some good trials, but he failed to go on with it in two subsequent starts. He's since undergone tie-back surgery, meaning he had breathing problems but hopefully they've been taken care of now. He's trialled well up in Sydney and I find it interesting that he comes here at his first start back. Down in the weights under the conditions and draws well. With $8.00 on offer I'll have a little nibble. (4) Miss Leonidas is flying this prep. He's had two runs back and has had no luck in either of them, caught wide the trip when beaten 1.1L by Faatinah first up before being caught wide without cover when running 2nd to Nature Strip in the G1 Moir Stakes last start. Drawn softly today so he'll get plenty of cover if they want it and he should be going close based on his recent form. (1) Crystal Dreamer won first up over the 1100m here. He's got a good second up record with three wins from six starts. (2) Malibu Style is always around the mark in these sorts of races while (8) Not Enough Effort and (9) God Of Thunder come out of the same race at the Valley and can measure up. Competitive affair but I'll go with Mclaren each way.
Now this will be interesting! Probably the most fascinating runner of the day is (2) Royal Meeting, a Godolphin four-year-old who has had just two career starts for two wins, with one of them being a French Group 1. He tackles a Group 3 here and there's certainly no stars in this field. The query is he's had 50 weeks off the track since his last start and he carries 60kg first up, but on his European form he is clearly the one to beat here and if he can repeat that sort of form he'll be winning this. (7) Manolo Blahniq was our best value bet of the day last weekend and ran 2nd over this track and distance behind Rox The Castle. His overall record at this track and distance stands at five starts for a win and four seconds. He comes into this on the quick back-up, he's drawn soft in barrier 1 and there's no reason he can't be competitive again at each way odds. (9) Desert Lord has had three starts so far this campaign, all in Sydney. Two starts ago he finished 3rd behind Kolding and Fierce Impact and since then, both of those horses have come out and won Group 1s! He wasn't effective in the Epsom last start but he drops back to a Group 3 here and must be hard to beat. Those are the clear top three for mine, so I'd be backing Royal Meeting ($3.40) with something small on Manolo Blahniq ($12) and a saver on Desert Lord ($5.00). I suppose (8) Variation has to be respected given how strong the WA form has appeared in Melbourne the last few weeks, but I'd be surprised to see him win.
Value: (7) Manolo Blahniq $12
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A tough way to finish the day. Five chances here. (6) Savatiano was disappointing first up at Flemington when she settled outside the leader and faded to finish 4th on a day that favoured frontrunners. She might have needed the run though, and her second up record suggest she can bounce back. She's never finished out of the top two from five starts when second up. She's also placed in seven of her eight starts at the distance (her 4th last start was the one time she's missed a place over 1400m). Drawn awkwardly in barrier 15 though. Stablemate (7) Pohutakawa was my best value of the day in that same race and her run was terrific, coming from midfield to run 2nd on the leaders track. If she repeats that sort of effort she'll be right in the finish again. (8) Baccarat Baby won first up in a small field over 1200m in Queensland. She draws well and the step up to 1400m is sure to help her but she might not completely hit her straps until she's over the mile (at least in Melbourne). (9) Jamaican Rain is a runner I'll definitely be backing and I suggest if she's firm in the market late, get on. She was ordinary towards the back end of last prep but she's got four wins from six starts when first up from a spell and that includes a win in G3 grade over this track and distance first up last prep. She's drawn well enough and Melham takes the ride after piloting Savatiano last start. (10) Naantali was beaten just 2.6L by the likes of Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane first up over 1200m at Flemington. She's much better suited second up at 1400m; in fact, she's never finished out of the top two from four starts over the track and distance. Drawn perfectly and should go close. Happy to take on (11) Angelic Ruler, while (2) Aristia did run the equal-best final 200m of the day last start, but is surely looking for longer than 1400m. Taking $11 for Jamaican Rain and $10 for Naantali.
Also backing: (10) Naantali $10
