Friday Night Football continues in Round 25 with two teams who are battling for positions they were not expecting to at the beginning of the season, as the Broncos push for an unlikely finals berth, against an Eels side desperate to avoid the wooden spoon. Plenty on the line here at Suncorp Stadium on Friday evening. We bring you our full betting preview below!
NRL Round 25 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 23rd August, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Broncos come off the bye in round 24, after showing signs of life the week before in a 42-18 mauling of the Cowboys in Townsville. It looked like an all too familiar tale for the Broncos, as they trailed 18-6 with just three minutes remaining in the first half, but five tries in 20 minutes in the second half was enough for the Broncos to keep their faint finals hopes alive. Forwards Pat Carrigan and Corey Jensen both ran for over 200 metres, whilst an injured Reece Walsh also ran for 200 metres, whilst creating three line-breaks and notching up two try assists. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Walsh is set to miss this weekend’s clash with the Eels with a broken hand.
Elsewhere last weekend, the Eels took on the Roosters at a swimming pool called Allianz Stadium, going down 38-14 in horrible conditions. It was fully expected that the Eels would have a down week, after their emotional loss the week prior to the Panthers. They went on to miss 57 tackles, conceded 8 penalties and lost two players to the sin bin, in a poor display that smacked of a side that has given up on the season. In the positives, Kelma Tuilagi proved a handful off the bench, running for 123 metres whilst scoring a try, popping four offloads and busting seven tackles. The Eels will be hoping the big man kicks on from here.
Match Preview
The Broncos and Eels met back in round 10 at CommBank Stadium, with the Broncos running out convincing 30-14 winners on the road. The Broncos closed 9.5-point favourites on the road, despite being without halfback Adam Reynolds, before winning and covering quite easily. The total closed 45.5, and despite 44 points being scored in the first 58 minutes, the over didn’t hit, with zero points scored in the final 22 minutes of action.
As for this clash, the Broncos opened 7.5-point home favourites, in a clear sign of the decline in the Broncos in the eyes of the market this season. The Broncos have taken on money, and now sit as 9.5-point home favourites against an Eels team that, despite not wanting the wooden spoon, have little to play for. I make the Broncos 10.5-point favourites, so was quick to jump on the 7.5 on offer earlier in the week, however there is still value here in the spread.
The total for this one opened 51.5 and has bounced up to 52.5. This is smack bang on my number of 52.5, so I don’t see a tonne of value here. I would lean towards the over, with the Eels playing the second highest percentage (60%) of overs in the NRL, however with no number value, I’ll steer clear.
I think the Broncos win here and win well. There is still a sniff of a finals spot up for grabs, and they showed two weeks ago they still have enough in the tank to turn it on against bad defences. Broncos to cover is the bet.
Broncos -9.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
M Sivo (1+ try) – The hulking left edge winger has 11 tries in 9 games this season, and this is a handy leg to add to your SGM at a decent price.
K Staggs (1+ try) – Staggs is finishing the season strongly, and with the Eels conceding 45% of their tries on the left edge, expect Staggs to bulldoze his way to another try this weekend.
Broncos ML – As above.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at Bet365
