Belgian Grand Prix Tips 2023: Formula 1 Predictions & Betting Preview

The final race before the mid-season break will see the drivers head to Belgium, to the infamous Spa-Francorchamps circuit, for the 13^th round of the 2023 Formula 1 season. With just 11 races left in the calendar, we have passed half distance, and with another dominant display from Max Verstappen and Red Bull last week at the Hungaroring, the fight for the minor placings continues.

A slight loss for our bets at the Hungary Grand Prix, as we went 2-2 (-0.1u). We will look to get back on track this week, with our preview and best bets outlined below.

2023 Formula 1 Betting Tips

Hungarian Grand Prix Review

Friday practice was interrupted by rain, meaning the teams and drivers didn’t really get through the programs they would have wanted for their race pace. FP3 saw Lewis Hamilton fastest by 0.250s over Verstappen and Perez, in what proved a good reference point for one-lap speed. 

Qualifying saw Lewis Hamilton take his 104^th career Pole Position, in a time just 0.003s faster than Max Verstappen. The McLaren pair of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri showed the McLaren is a fast car on all types of tracks, qualifying 3^rd and 4^th, whilst Alfa Romeo’s Zhou Guanyu qualified 5^th, his best ever qualifying.

Verstappen got away well, and led into turn 1, whilst Piastri jumped from 4^th to 2^nd. Both Alpine’s were punted off the road and out of the race on lap 1, killing any chance of our Alpine double points finish bet at the first corner.

Verstappen was never challenged at the front, winning by over 33 seconds, whilst a hard charging Perez finished 3^rd. Norris took his second straight 2^nd place finish, whilst Hamilton and Piastri rounded out the top 5. Special mention to Daniel Ricciardo, who finished 13^th, ahead of his teammate, despite being taken off the track on lap 1. A solid return for the Honey Badger.

Belgian Grand Prix Preview

Once again, it’s very difficult to see anyone but Max Verstappen winning this race. Last year, Verstappen took Pole Position by a whopping 0.632s from Carlos Saniz, with Perez a full 0.8s slower than his teammate. With the long straights and fast, sweeping turns at Spa, expect another Verstappen procession, with the only thing capable of stopping him a car failure. Now onto the challengers.

I’ll start with Mercedes. Last season, they struggled in qualifying here, but Russell managed his tyres well in the race, finishing 4^th. I don’t believe they will have the same issues in qualifying this season, as they appear capable of keeping their tyres throughout one lap. Both drivers will be at the sharp end, however I don’t see any value right now. If they qualify poorly and their prices for a podium rise steeply, I’ll consider a play later in the weekend.

Next up is McLaren, who appear to have the 2^nd or 3^rd best car right now, with their pace over one lap and on certain tyres certainly matching that of Mercedes. Once again, I expect both to be on the front 3 rows of the grid, and Lando pushing for a third straight podium. The prices have well and truly caught up to McLaren though, and the value appears to be gone.

Ferrari are next, and the Italian team have a tremendous record at this venue, winning on 18 previous occasions, the most of any team. They always appear to be quick here, however they just don’t seem to have the pace right now, and I can’t see them competing for the podium. I’d put Aston Martin in the same group as Ferrari, with Alonso no doubt hovering around that 6-9^th place by race end.

Of the other teams, I like Alex Albon at this venue to have a good weekend. The Williams has proved quick at most venues lately, and a power-hungry track like Spa should see the Williams in the hands of Albon threatening Q3 and have him in a position to score points. Albon has shown he can make his tyres last, and if it’s a dry race I can see him pushing for a top 8 finish.

So, I’ll have a play on Red Bull being dominant, Williams punching above their weight, and Norris to keep up his streak this weekend. 

Last thing to mention is that the 2023 Belgian Grand Prix will be another Sprint Race weekend, however I won’t be getting involved in my bets here, so these bets are purely for Qualifying for the race, and the actual Grand Prix.

Other Bets

Alexander Albon (Top 10 finish) – $2.30 @ TAB (1u)

Alexander Albon (To make Q3 in Qualifying) – $2.25 @ NEDS (1u)

1st Place Qualifying Margin (Over 0.25s) - $2.25 @ Bet365 (1u)

Lando Norris (Top 3 finish) - $1.83 @ NEDS (1u)

Red Bull (Both cars on Podium)

$1.91 (2 Units)

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