Formula 1 returns for the first race in 4 weeks, as the circus heads to Baku for the 6th instalment of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. After a month off, which teams will show signs of improvement? And can anyone catch the rampaging Red Bull’s? We will discuss below, as we preview each and every Grand Prix during the 2023 Formula 1 season here at Before You Bet.
The tough sledding continued at the Australian Grand Prix, as we went 1-4 on our bets. That takes us to 4-8 (-5.065u) on the season.
Formula 1 Betting Tips
Australia Grand Prix Review
Verstappen looked like he was going to romp to another easy win after 1st practice in Australia, however by the time the flag fell on qualifying, the gap seemed to be closing. Yes, Verstappen took Pole, but the Mercedes pair of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton were right behind.
As the lights we out, Verstappen was swarmed, dropping to 3rd by turn 3, as the Mercedes pair led an unlikely 1-2. Our man Charles Leclerc went spearing off at turn 3, with his race, and our bet, ruined. Russell pitted on lap 8, as a huge Alex Albon crash brought about a safety car. It turned out to be extremely unlucky, as the race was red flagged, ruining Russell’s race.
4 short laps after the re-start, and Verstappen blew by Hamilton to take the lead. From there, Verstappen was never challenged, as he cruised to his 2nd win of the season.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix Preview
The top 4 teams have certainly distanced themselves from the rest of the pack, however the chasing 3 still have some work to do before they can get in the same stratosphere as the Red Bull. All 3 races to start the season have been won by Red Bull, and without seeing if any teams are bringing any big updates from the 4-week break, it’s hard to predict anything other than another Red Bull procession this weekend.
So once again, we’re looking for value outside Red Bull, and ultimately, the race winner. Unless there is reason to believe otherwise, or a team all of a sudden shows it can match Red Bull at certain circuits, unfortunately betting on race winner is a negative EV proposition.
So, let’s have a look at the podium places. After the Red Bull’s, the names with the best chances in the market are Alonso, Hamilton, Leclerc, Russell, and Sainz. For value, I like Leclerc, who has always been quick around this circuit, however Ferrari have looked horrible to start the season. Alonso has been quick everywhere, and it’s a good chance he will again be quick here. Aston Martin have a decent history at this venue too, however I’m looking more at Mercedes in this one, and despite Hamilton being the betting favourite, I like George Russell at a better price.
Russell has outqualified his teammate in all 3 races to start the season, and looked tremendous in Australia, leading the race early before an Ill-timed pitstop ruined his race. Looking back 12 months, and Russell also dominated Hamilton at this very venue, finishing over 25 seconds ahead of his illustrious teammate. So, Russell it is for the podium, and I’ll also dabble a little elsewhere on Russell.
Another look I like is Haas driver Nico Hulkenberg to progress to Q3, something he has done on 2 occasions already this season. In fact, the only time Hulk didn’t get through to Q3, he finished 11th, just 0.040s behind 10th. Good odds, for a small dabble on Saturday.
Not too much more to offer here. I’m bullish on Russell and hoping he can get us a nice return to get close to even for the season, and I’ll splash a unit on the Red Bull’s being dominant once again.
Other Bets
George Russell > Lewis Hamilton (Qualifying Match Bets) - $1.66 @ Bet365 (1u)
Red Bull (Double Podium Finish) - $1.75 @ NEDS (1u)
Nico Hulkenberg (Driver to reach Q3) - $3.00 @ Bet365 (1u)
George Russell (Podium Finish)
$3.75 (2 Units)
