It’s rare you see a winning team making more changes than the losing team for the second Test of a series but they have been forced on the Wallabies.
Fit-again prop Taniela Tupou is a huge plus to come in to face England and lock Matt Philip starts for the suspended Darcy Swain. In the backs, outside centre Hunter Paisami, winger Tom Wright and fullback Jordan Petaia are fresh “ins” for injured trio Len Ikitau, Andrew Kellaway and Tom Banks.
It promises to be a fascinating Test after the up-and-down fortunes of last week when the Wallabies got home with 14 men by 30-28.
England’s late surge to come second was fine except for those who backed Australia to cover the line at 2.5 points. Like me.
Let’s take a closer look at what is in store this weekend.
Australia v England
Sat, July 9, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane 7.55pm (AEST)
The only relevant stat to many will be this...the Wallabies win at Suncorp Stadium. It’s 10 wins in a row in Brisbane and not over mugs.
The All Blacks (twice), France (twice), Ireland and South Africa (three times) are amongst those scalps so it’s a bona fide form line.
The Wallabies do love playing at Suncorp Stadium...they regard it as home with a fast field and an energising crowd.
The English thought they’d dominate the scrums and lineouts in the first Test. When they didn’t get the advantage they hoped for, their effectiveness fizzled somewhat.
That’s big credit to the Wallabies lifting their physicality in all parts of the game after half-time and finding an extra gear when 14-9 down with just 14 men at the 60-minute mark. Huge character was shown.
The spin-offs relevant to Suncorp Stadium are Tupou and Philip giving the pack extra physicality from the kick-off but the lineout perhaps losing a bit of its certainty. Philip is not quite the lineout target that Swain is.
Tupou ruptures opposition scrums so that’s a big asset. The new dad is bursting to impose himself on this Test after a lengthy freshen-up while out with injury. Another tick.
Giving Petaia a start at No.15 is a huge nod to him being a quality footballer rather than a quality fullback. He’s still got plenty to learn in that area, mostly in the mopping up of kicks and getting good, well-balanced clearing kicks away himself. His changes of pace, his ability to bust through defences, his soaring skills under the high ball...every other dimension he pretty much has covered in his favourite position.
The English will test him.
Ikitau and Kellaway showed lovely hands in the Petaia try in the first Test and don’t make many errors. That silky handling is gone. Paisami and Wright don’t quite provide those touches and are more prone to errors. At their best, they are excellent punch.
The English have gambled on 21-year-olds to start at halfback (Jack van Poortvliet) and wing (Tommy Freeman). It’s not a time to play safe, they say. Coach Eddie Jones is rolling the dice on youthful backs and finding more brutality from a big, experienced pack.
The Wallabies are good enough to take the series 2-0 with a win here but it will take Petaia and Wright to be rock solid under high kicks and with their exits from danger zones.
Ladbrokes have repeated the line they set for the first Test at 2.5 points, with Australia favourites. TAB.com.au have the Wallabies as slightly firmer favourites at –3.5 points.
“Over 50.5 Points Scored” at $1.90 with TAB.com.au is a juicy bet on a good-scoring ground. Aussie hooker Dave Porecki to score an “Anytime Try” at $2.80 is sound with mauls off lineouts such a standard play these days.
Over 50.5 Points
$1.90 (3 Units)
New Zealand v Ireland
Sat, July 9, Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin 5.05pm (AEST)
NZ 1-12
$2.63 (1.5 Units)
