A Friday Night bludger of a game greets us in Round 7 of the NRL Premiership, where the 14th placed Brisbane Broncos (2-4) host the 16th placed Canterbury Bulldogs (1-5). Neither side has won a game in the month of April, with the Broncos on a 4-match losing streak, whilst the Bulldogs haven’t won a game since week 1 against the Cowboys.
Strap in folks, this could give the Titans v Tigers match a run for its money for worst game of the season. To make this game a bit more enjoyable, let us try and win some money on it, shall we?
As always, stay tuned throughout the 2022 NRL season to get the best betting value when taking on the bookies, with our NRL Tips page previewing all the NRL matches in 2022.
Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs Betting Tips
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 22nd April, 7:55pm (AEST)
Squads
Brisbane Broncos
1. Te Maire Martin 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington. INTERCHANGE: 14. Billy Walters 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. Thomas Flegler 17. Keenan Palasia. RESERVES: 18. Delouise Hoeter 19. Jordan Pereira 20. TC Robati 21. Brenko Lee 22. Ezra Mam 23. Ethan Quai-Ward 24. Logan Bayliss-Brow
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Matt Dufty 2. Brent Naden 3. Aaron Schoupp 4. Jake Averillo 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Luke Thompson 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Corey Waddell 12. Tevita Pangai Junior 13. Josh Jackson. INTERCHANGE: 14. Brandon Wakeham 15. Joe Stimson 16. Max King 17. Ava Seumanufagai. RESERVES: 19. Bailey Biondi-Odo 20. Jackson Topine 21. Reece Hoffman 22. Jayden Okunbor 23. Corey Allan 24. Josh Cook 25. Tui Katoa
Match Preview
Well, the Bulldogs got me again. The blind betting of Bulldogs’ unders and total unders in Bulldogs games looks like it could be dead. Since week 2, Bulldogs games have been consistently totalled below 40 points, and whilst it was a good betting strategy for the first 5 weeks, it may be time to adjust the strategy.
The substantial change occurred two weeks ago, when Peter V’Landys said the stars of the game were not getting the chance to perform because the ruck had slowed so dramatically. As a result, penalties, and specifically 6 agains, have seen a dramatic increase over the past two weeks. This has seen the average points per game go from 35.75 points per game over the first month of the competition, to 38 points per game over the first 6 weeks (42.5 points per game last 2 weeks).
Added to the change in officiating, the weather has been much improved over the past fortnight, lending to more attacking conditions. So does all this information lead us to start hitting overs? Has the market corrected quickly enough, or has it gone too far? Looking at the closing totals, the market has had plenty of reaction to the previous round action, and given last week was the 2nd highest points per game through 6 rounds, a slight bump would be expected. And that is exactly what has happened. The market is learning quickly, so soft totals markets may not be around to take advantage of.
Despite all this information, I am leaning unders…. These two teams played in round 2, and the Bulldogs dominated possession, field position and metres gained. Despite this, they could not get the job done, looking poor in attacking areas and unable to capitalise on their dominance. The Broncos seized their chances, and despite Kotoni Staggs bombing a certain try, managed to get out of Accor Stadium with the chocolates.
I expect the Broncos to have a better share of possession, however the Broncos do give up the most metres and post contact metres of any team in the league. Luckily for them, the Bulldogs average close to the bottom in both categories. The Broncos with the home ground advantage should be too strong, and in my opinion win by a converted try.
On Wednesday morning the news came from Gus Gould that the Bulldogs had several players providing positive Covid RATs and as a result the squad is expected to look a lot different to the side listed above. In news at hand at the time of writing, Brent Naden, Jake Averillo, Brandon Wakeham and Ava Seumanufgai have been removed from the team list. Jayden Okunbor will start on the wing, Jacob Kiraz will make his debut at centre, whilst Bailey Biondi-Odo and Billy Tskirikas will come onto the bench.
For the Broncos, the big news is Te Maire Martin has been named at fullback, after medically retiring 3 years ago after a brain bleed. He replaces Tesi Niu (hamstring). Other changes for the Broncos include Payne Haas and Tom Flegler both returning from suspension, whilst Corey Paix takes the hooking role from Jake Turpin, with Billy Walters benched and Tyson Gamble named in the 6 jersey.
With the mass outs at the Bulldogs, the market has moved a tremendous amount from open, with the Broncos opening 3.5-point favourites, to now sitting as 11.5-point favourites. Now, a decision needs to be made if the change is justified. Considering in round 2, after the Bulldogs beat the Cowboys in round 1, the Broncos still closed -3.5 in Sydney. Given this, you would have the Broncos at that time, as 5.5 to 6 points better on a neutral. The fact they opened -3.5 at home 5 weeks later, had me chomping at the bit and I hit the Broncos -3.5 early. But 8 points is too much in my opinion. Two backline players and two bench players does not equate to 8 points, certainly not for the Bulldogs. I think the market has gone too far, and If I see a Bulldogs +12 or +12.5, I will attack for a huge middle.
The Bulldogs have scored over 12 points at Suncorp once since 2016, so I’m going to have to go back to the well, despite what we said earlier. I believe the Broncos will probably win by 6-10 points; however, I believe it will be a tight first 40-60 minutes.
1st half total under 19.5 points ($1.88 at Ladbrokes)
Brisbane Broncos -5.5 - 2nd half handicap ($1.79 at Unibet)
Kotoni Staggs - Anytime try scorer ($2.50 at Ladbrokes)
Bulldogs Under 14.5 Total
$1.80 (2.5 Units)
