Round 11 of the NRL season begins on Thursday and we are back with a full betting preview of all the weekend's games below.
NRL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers (Thursday, May 17 7:50pm AEST)
Panthers Stadium plays host to the Panthers and the Tigers in NRL footy on Thursday night. Both sides are in the top eight so this should be a close matchup. The Panthers are coming off a close victory over the Knights by 11 points. In 2018, they're scoring 23.3 points per match, which ranks 4th in the NRL. Which will be helped by the return of Cleary. The Tigers held on last match against the Cowboys by 8 points, which snapped a 3 match losing streak. But in terms of head to head, the Panthers do hold a 3-0 record against them. They’re also undefeated at Panthers Stadium in 2018. That’s good enough for me to back Penrith again.
Penrith Panthers to win
$1.60
Parramatta Eels vs New Zealand Warriors (Friday, May 18 6:00pm AEST)
Round 11 continues with the Eels hosting the Warriors at ANZ Stadium on Friday. The Warriors were poor against the Roosters at Mt Smart Stadium as they were held scoreless. They still rank 7th in the NRL for points scored (22) and also rank highly (6th) for points against. But the injury to Shaun Johnson showed in attack. For the Eels, they have a 2-3 win-loss record in their last 5 matches. They’re coming off a close loss to the Bulldogs by 8 points. In 2018, they are a poor scoring team (14.6 points per match) and rank 16th in the NRL. So the unders should salute here. The Eels have a 20-9 record against the under since 2016 in home matches and 16-6 at ANZ in night matches. Also, the Warriors are 7-3 against the under this season and come off a scoreless outing.
Total points UNDER 39.5
$1.88
Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters (Friday, May 18 7:50pm AEST)
Suncorp Stadium plays host to the Broncos and the Roosters in NRL footy on Friday. This will be the first meeting since a 24-22 win for the Roosters in the finals last season. In fact, they won both matches against them by 2 points in 2017. In Round 10, they beat the Warriors by 32 points and notched up a second straight win. For the Broncos, they have a 3-2 win-loss record in their last 5 matches. However, they were comfortably beaten last week by the Sea Eagles 38-24. So it’s hard to see them stopping the Roosters around the try-line and I’ll back them to make it 3 straight wins.
Sydney Roosters to win
$1.63
Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights (Saturday, May 19 3:00pm AEST)
On Saturday afternoon, the Titans and Knights meet at CBus Super Stadium. The Knights are looking slightly the better side as they sit 10th on the ladder with a 5-5 record. Last week, the Knights playing in a defeat to the Panthers by a margin of 11 points. Meanwhile, the Titans are 3-7 on the season and will need to show something. They were in the match against the Storm last round, but ultimately played most of the second half with 0 players on the bench. So in this matchup, both sides are pretty similar and have injury concerns. Each team is averaging 17 points per match so you would figure the total should be around 34-40 points, which is well under the total of 45.5 points. In day matches at Robina, the Titans are 18-11-1 against the under and the Knights have scored under 20 points in 4 of their last 5.
Total points UNDER 45.5
$1.90
North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (Saturday, May 19 5:30pm AEST)
In this clash, the Cowboys and Rabbitohs face off at 1300Smiles Stadium on Saturday. The Rabbitohs should be confident of victory as they sit 5th on the ladder, compared to the 14th placed Cowboys. The Rabbitohs are 4-1 in their last 5 matches and they recorded a comfortably victory in Round 10 as they beat the Dragons by 14 points. They rank 3rd in the NRL for points scored (24.8) and also rank 7th for points against. For the Cowboys, they have a 2-3 win-loss record in their last 5 matches and were sloppy once again in a loss to the Tigers. They are a poor scoring team (16.2 points per match) and rank 14th in the NRL. While in defence, they are allowing teams to score 22.2 points on average. So in the end, they’re just lacking any sort of form to beat the Rabbitohs.
South Sydney to win
$1.75
Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles (Saturday, May 19 7:30pm AEST)
NRL football continues with the Storm playing the Sea Eagles at AAMI Park in this clash. The Storm sits 4th on the ladder with a 6-4 record and the Sea Eagles are placed 12th. The big storyline in this one is the suspension of Storm skipper Cameron Smith. However, the odds are still in the home side’s favour, mainly since they’re 4-1 in their last 5 matches. In terms of points scored, the Storm rank 2nd in the NRL. Cameron Munster will be looking to make a statement in the halves and they still have a strong forward pack along with Josh Addo-Carr in career best form. I thought they were sloppy against the Titans but they always seem to turn it on at AAMI Park. Looking at the Sea Eagles, they finally ended their losing streak with a huge win up in Brisbane. They’ll be looking to avenge a 40-6 loss last time at this venue. In the end, even though Smith is out, the Storm and Sea Eagles usually play in high scoring matches. As such, the over is 8-3 in this matchup and both sides are 6-4 against the over in 2018.
Total points OVER 40.5
$1.90
St George Dragons vs Canberra Raiders (Sunday, May 20 2:00pm AEST)
Round 11 continues with the Dragons hosting the Raiders at Glen Willow Stadium, Mudgee on Sunday. The Dragons are looking the better side as they sit 1st on the ladder, despite a loss to the Rabbitohs last week. They should return to form against the Raiders defence which allows 21 points per match. In terms of points scored, the Dragons rank 1st in the NRL. Looking at the Raiders, they have a 3-2 win-loss record in their last 5 matches. They are scoring 22.3 points per match, which ranks 5th in the NRL. So at CrownBet, the both teams to score 13 or more points looks to be the safe bet as the line could either way. In the last 10 meetings, this bet has only failed once. The Raiders haven’t been held under 13 points this season as well.
Both teams to score 13+
$1.70
Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury Bulldogs (Sunday, May 20 4:10pm AEST)
NRL football concludes with the Sharks playing the Bulldogs at Shark Park in this clash. The Sharks sits 7th on the ladder and the Bulldogs are sitting 13th. Cronulla is ridding a 4 match winning streak and they’re starting to play good footy. The Bulldogs have a 2-3 win-loss record in their last 5 matches and they recorded a solid win over the Eels last week. Looking at the head to head, this should be a tight, low scoring battle. The last meeting was a 9-8 result at this venue and the last 3 matchups have fallen under 40 total points.
Total points UNDER 39.5
$1.90
