After a big day of racing on Saturday, @Tim_Tips is back to offer more racing tips with his look at the Canberra Cup which will take place this Sunday, March 6.
Tab.com.au Canberra Cup 2000m - Listed
Sunday sees the running of the Listed Canberra Cup over 2000m, where Godolphin import Arab Dawn will start favourite following his impressive win in the Paramatta Cup in Sydney two weeks ago.
The race looks set to be led by the Gai Waterhouse trained Hippopus, with Faust sure to use barrier 3 to secure a position up on the speed. There's the possibility of both Brockman and Off The Rails coming over from wide barriers to inject some speed, so the race should be run at a genuine tempo.
The track rating will prove pivotal - currently it is rated a Soft 5 but it's due to be 34 degrees on Sunday so there's every chance we could start on a Good track.
Let's go through the field:
CENTRE PIVOT: Been racing in significantly harder races than what he faces here so it will be a welcome step back in grade. After some good performances in Queensland he was well beaten in both the Apollo and the Chipping Norton Stakes, both won by Winx. Likely to go back from the wide barrier but he rates strongly.
ARAB DAWN: If the track is a Good 3, I think he just wins. His win in the Paramatta Cup was superb when he got back on to a dry track, and the form out of that race has stacked up. Gets a great run from barrier 2 and the speed should suit him. McDonald comes down to ride him - big chance, but needs a firm track.
LOOPHOLE: Won consecutive races in Sydney before finishing midfield in his two races since. Never discount a Chris Waller in a race like this, but he will also need a good ride from barrier 1.
FAUST: Set to settle in the first couple from barrier 3. Disappointing last start but his run two starts back at Flemington was very good. He's undefeated over this track and distance and could be an each way chance.
HIPPOPUS: Should lead from barrier 6 but he's been slightly disappointing in his two runs back from a spell. Hard to see him turning the tables on Arab Dawn.
LANDLOCKED: Well beaten in his last couple and it's hard to see him figuring here despite the booking of Tommy Berry.
AWARD SEASON: Ran a good race two starts back in the Gosford Cup and should get a lovely run from barrier 7 here with an in form jockey on board. He would need to reproduce that effort if he was to be a chance here but it's not out of the question.
OFF THE RAILS: Strong win last start in the Cup Prelude carrying the big weight of 61kg. He's won his only race over 2000m and back down to the minimum weight of 54kg sees him shape as an each way chance.
HALFPENNY GATE: Racing in terrific form and put the writing on the wall once more last start in the Cup Prelude. He took a while to wind up but got going late to just miss, which suggests the step up to 2000m for the first time should be no issue.Gets a dream run from barrier 5 and he is certainly an each way hope at big odds.
SPINNING DAWN: Eye catching run in the Prelude last start where he didn't get a lot of luck. He will have to come from the back of the field but with 54kg and the step up to 2000m he should be competitive.
AMERICAN TIME: Has 5 wins from 16 starts but he's not going well enough at present to suggest he can feature in this.
BROCKMAN: Took up the lead mid-race in the Prelude last start and nearly held on to win but was nailed on the post. He faces a tricky task getting across from barrier 11 but if he reproduces his run from last start he could be an each way hope.
Summary
To me this looks a race for Arab Dawn and if the track is a Good 3 come race time then the $2.60 on offer is more than acceptable. His Sydney Saturday form has stacked up already and shapes as the strongest formline in the race. James McDonald comes down to take the ride and he looks very hard to beat.
Centre Pivot has been racing in much harder races than this and has taken on Winx at his last two starts. He will have to go back from the wide barrier but if he reproduces his form of late he will be very competitive.
Faust could give a good sight if he finds his form from two starts ago, while you can never discount a Chris Waller horse in these races so Loophole must be included.
Halfpenny Gate continues to run very well and appeals at big odds on an each way basis. Off The Rails and Award Season others to consider.
1st ARAB DAWN
2nd CENTRE PIVOT
3rd HALFPENNY GATE
4th LOOPHOLE
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
