The team at Before You Bet have been keeping a close watch on 2014 Brownlow betting. It’s simply one of the most lucrative markets out there. Why is that? Because there is pretty much nothing else in the world you can bet where all the information is right there in front of you, prior to the event you are betting on occurs. Sure, there is a bit of guess work, but there are certainly trends and enough rock solid information out there to make betting on the Brownlow Medal profitable.
Throughout the year, we have been watching games, looking at stats and casting our own votes just like the umpires do. All the sports books do this as well when determining their odds (of course, public betting also affects the Brownlow odds of Australian sports betting websites).
We use a polling method that many sports books have openly suggested they also use – giving out half votes on games where it’s too hard to split individual players. The idea is that these half votes will average out over the year. For example: Steve Johnson and Joel Selwood were equally as impressive in Round 2 of this year so they get 2.5 votes each. They were then once again equally as eye-catching against GWS in Round 18 and so once again we give them 2.5 votes each. Generally, over a long period of time, both players will pick up the same amount of 3-vote games and 2-vote games in this situation. It’s not a perfect science, but it’s a solid enough way of splitting votes in those tough games where there is no single star in that is pretty much guaranteed to poll the 3 votes.
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So, basically, we have given votes in every single game of this year and using that data have started to find some value in betting on the 2014 Brownlow Medal. Below you will find the top ten as we have them standing following Round 18. The column marked “Total” are the votes we have the players on including the half votes. The next two columns represent the max and minimum the players are on. The max column is calculated by rounding up all the half-vote games (i.e 2.5 votes becomes 3) and the min column is calculated by rounding down those game s(i.e 2.5 votes becomes 2). It can then be deduced that we think the players will fall somewhere in this range. As you can see with Gary Ablett, all three columns are the same as we think his games were cut and dry as he didn’t split any of his 3-game votes with anyone else.
Before You Bet’s 2014 Brownlow Betting Top Ten (After Round 18)
We have Josh Kennedy equal with Gary Ablett on 22 votes and so with Ablett out for the rest of the year, it’s pretty safe to say that he won’t be winning the 2014 Brownlow. Kennedy is the favourite in Brownlow betting at every sports book and we tend to agree with that sentiment, though we do think he might be a little short-priced at around $3.50.
However, our data suggests that Scott Pendlebury’s odds are even worse. Pendlebury is second favourite at most books, with his price set somewhere around $4, while we have him sitting sixth and seven votes behind Ablett and Kennedy. With Collingwood not looking likely to make the finals and looking like they will lose a few more games this year, we aren’t keen at all on Pendlebury. In fact, we would be happy to lay Scott Pendlebury on Betfair Australia at ~$5 (if you don’t know what that means, check out ‘How to back and lay bets on Betfair’)
The player we like the most at this stage for 2014 Brownlow betting is Joel Selwood. We have the Geelong captain just a couple of votes behind the leaders. Selwood also seems to be fit again after a bit of a slow injury-induced patch in the middle of the season and has some likely wins against North Melbourne, Carlton and Brisbane to finish the season. If he can poll in these games, he will be hard to beat, so we are happy to bet on Joel Selwood at around $6.50.
The next two players we have on our list our both ineligible – Nat Fyfe and Steve Johnson. Some will say we have been tough on Nat Fyfe and that he should be on more, while Johnson has probably over-polled in our data. We do think both of these guys are the types of players who poll votes in games where they aren’t necessarily the best player. Regardless, these players can’t win the medal, so they aren’t a factor in the outright winner market.
2014 Brownlow Betting Tip (As after Round 18): Joel Selwood at $6.50
Other 2014 Brownlow Betting Tips
There is plenty of money to be made betting on the 2014 Brownlow Medal outside of the actual outright winner market. More specifically, we believe the total team votes and the head-to-head markets the books put up are highly exploitable. Most of these markets won’t be made available until closer to the Brownlow, but there are a few already out there that we find value in. We outline some of the 2014 Brownlow bets we suggest as having value below.
Leader After Round 5 (Sportingbet)
Gary Ablett is the firm favourite in this market at $2.05 followed by Steve Johnson at $3.30. Most people have both of these players on top, but we think there is value on Joel Selwood at $4.25 here. Ablett was clear best on ground in three Gold Coast wins, but won’t have polled in any other games. That leaves him on 9. Steve Johnson we have on either 8 or 9 votes, while Selwood we have on 11. He got all the media votes in a crushing performance in Round 1, picked up a likely 2 behind Johnson in game two, and then was considered best on ground in the next two games. Even if some team mates steal a vote or two, he’s still value paying twice as much as Ablett.
Bet On: Joel Selwood Leader After Round 5 ($4.25) at Sportingbet
Jobe Watson Vs. Dane Swan (Ladbrokes)
Both Jobe Watson and Dane Swan have likely already finished their Brownlow polling for 2014. Swan played a few more games than Watson, but we don’t have him polling in any games after Jobe was sidelined anyway. Also, there have been whispers Watson will be back for a couple of games at the end of the season, while it sounds like that might not be the case for Swan. Basically, Swan has had the worst year of his career and we have him polling as little as 7 votes and think the max is 9. Jobe, on the other hand, was quite solid when he was on the park. We have him on 10 votes and think that could even go up to 12. While both players traditionally poll well, we think Jobe also had less competition when he was polling, while when Swan did play good, he had quite a bit of competition from Beams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom and even a few others.
Bet On: Jobe Watson to win ($1.82) at Ladbrokes
Essendon Most Team Votes (Bet365)
The season isn’t over yet, but we still think there is some value in betting on the most team Brownlow votes at Essendon. We currently have Dyson Heppell leading the voting by one over Jobe Watson. Now, Watson is injured for most the season, and while he might be back for a couple of games, we can rule him out. Heppell is the favourite at $2.25, but we have him four votes ahead of second favourite Brendon Goddard and three votes ahead of third favourite David Zaharakis. Take into consideration that Heppell is firing up at the moment and the fact that he stands out far more than Goddard and it’s a solid bet to get on now. Zaharakis at his odds is also an option, though we think Heppell is more consistent, so is a safer bet.
Bet On: Dyson Heppell Most Votes ($2.25) at Bet365
Carlton Most Team Votes (Ladbrokes)
Like the Essendon Brownlow betting tip, the season isn’t over, but we think there is some value to be found in Carlton’s most team votes. Bryce Gibbs is equal favourite with Marc Murphy, but we have Gibbs as many as five votes ahead of Murhpy. Gibbs was just the clear standout in a couple of big wins for the Blues, while Murphy has been tagged out of many games this year. The Blues probably only win one or two games from here (if they are lucky), so we are happy to get on Gibbs at this price with that lead we think he has.
Bet On: Bryce Gibbs Most Votes at Carlton ($1.90) at Ladbrokes
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
