The second game on Sunday football sees Hawthorn hosting Brisbane in Launceston from 3:20pm. Brisbane will be looking to move to 9-1, while the Hawks will be looking to get back on the winners list.
Jack Tobin is on deck with his preview, and be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for coverage on every game of Round Ten.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Betting Tips
UTAS Stadium, Sunday 22nd May, 3:20pm AEST
Hawthorn
Injuries: Tyler Brockman, Jack Gunston, Emerson Jeka, Ben McEvoy, Tom Phillips, Ned Reeves, Josh Ward
Sam Mitchell has swung the axe, dropping Finn Maginness and James Worpel from the squad to head to Launceston. Tom Mitchell and Changkuoth Jiath headline the inclusions for the Hawks, while Jack Gunston is out with an ankle injury. Josh Ward suffered a concussion in the VFL last week, meaning the number seven pick will be out through concussion protocols.
After a promising start to the season, the Hawks have lost six out of their last seven games with second half fadeouts beginning to become a trend. The Hawks have given up leads of 25, 25, 15 and 32 points in their last four games as they’ve struggled to put together a four quarter effort for quite some time.
Hawthorn have lost the clearance count in six of their last seven games and are coming up against the number one clearance team in the competition this weekend. Max Lynch has struggled as the sole ruckman and is coming up an in-form Oscar McInerny, and it’s hard to see him winning the ruck battle. The Hawks midfield is badly out of form and they need to break even if they want to be competitive against the Lions.
Brisbane
Injuries: Joe Daniher, Dan McStay, Kai Lohmann
The Lions have the second smallest injury list in the AFL with Joe Daniher, Dan McStay and Kai Lohmann the only players on the sideline currently. Brisbane have brought Devon Robertson, Mitch Robinson and Tom Fullarton into their extended squad for Sunday’s game, with at least one change on the cards as Marcus Adams is out through health & safety protocols.
After a 36 point victory against Adelaide last week, Brisbane are on a five game winning streak sitting comfortably in second place on the ladder with an 8-1 record. The Lions statistical profile is seriously impressive, ranking 1st in the AFL for scoring (105 points per game), 1st for clearances, 2nd for inside 50’s and 3rd points against (69 points per game).
The Lions showed last week despite missing Joe Daniher and Dan McStay they can kick winning scores, having ten individual goal kickers enroute to kicking 16.6.106. The Hawks have conceded scores above 100 points in four of their last six games as they’ve struggled to find a back six combination. If the conditions are favourable in Launceston, Brisbane should kick a big score.
Match Prediction
This match features two teams in polar opposite patches of form, with the Lions winning six of their last seven, and the Hawks losing six of their last seven. Hawthorn has conceded an average of 107 points per game across their last six matches, while Brisbane has scored an average of 103 points in that time span - including four consecutive scores above 100 in their last four games.
The -19.5 line is one Brisbane are definitely capable of covering. The Lions have covered it in each of their past four games and have won by an average margin of 46 points. The discrepancy in the clearance ability of both sides, and the Lions ability to generate scores from multiple avenues will be far too much for Hawthorn to overcome.
Brisbane -19.5
$2.00 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Charlie Cameron has had an impressive start to 2022, kicking 23 goals to be sixth in the Coleman Medal race after nine rounds. Cameron has been in scintillating form across the last month with hauls of 4, 3, 4 and 4 goals in his last four games. With Daniher and McStay out, Cameron is seeing plenty of the ball go his way inside 50 and will enjoy taking on a struggling Hawthorn defence.
Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals, $1.60 with TAB
Jai Newcombe has averaged 25 disposals per game across his last five games and still presents as some nice value in the disposal markets. He has been the Hawks highest centre bounce attender since Round Four, and Sam Mitchell has given the young gun consistent opportunities in the midfield this season over some of his more experienced teammates.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals, $1.95 with TAB
We’re looking at a value selection to round out the prop bets, with James Sicily to pick up 25+ disposals. The defender has been in outstanding form this season returning from an ACL injury, averaging 23 disposals per game. Sicily has hit the 25 disposal mark three times this season and recorded 24 last weekend against Richmond. With the ball likely to be spending plenty of time inside the Lions forward 50, Sicily will have plenty of ball coming his way.
James Sicily 25+ Disposals, $2.20 with TAB
