Another great week of NFL action coming up! The action gets underway on Friday morning Australian time with the New York Jets hosting the Denver Broncos from 10.20am! The Action continues on Monday and Tuesday morning and as usual, we have you covered with a full preview for the key matchups and betting tips for every game below.
This NFL season, Before You Bet has a special partnership with 'The Punt Return' podcast! Catch Josh Wye & Nick Splitter weekly in the lead up to action in the NFL, breaking down some of the key games and storylines.
NFL Week 4 Betting Tips
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, Friday 10.20am (AEST)
The Jets have had a horror start to the season, losing all three of their games by an average margin of 19 points. They have allowed the sixth most points per game in the NFL at 31.3 and have a tough test against a pretty feisty Broncos team at home on Friday morning.
The Broncos are also 0-3 but haven’t looked nearly as deplorable as the Jets have to start the season. They were unlucky not to record a win in Week 1, when the Titans beat them by just two points, then they went down by just five points to the Steelers in Week 2.
After being 11 point underdogs against the Colts and still failing to cover in Week 3, it’s a little bit surprising to me that the Jets start as just three point underdogs here, regardless of the fact that they’ll be at home. There’s absolutely nothing positive to take from the Jets season so far and until they prove us otherwise, we’ll continue to bet against them
Since writing, the Jets have actually moved into favourtism for the Friday morning clash. Love the value of the Broncos point or even money line here.
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Monday 4.00am (AEST)
Another matchup between two 0-3 teams is an interesting one to us this Monday morning as the Texans host the Vikings from 4am. The Texans have been a better team than their record suggests so far. They have had a horror schedule to start the season, playing three genuine AFC contenders in the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in the opening three weeks. DeShaun Watson has looked solid and with an easier run from here on out, we expect him to lead the Texans back to at least a .500 record.
The Vikings lost in Week 1 to a Green Bay team that looks like a real threat. Since then, however, they’ve been deplorable with back to back losses against the Colts on the road and the Titans at home. They’ve allowed the second most points per game of any team in the league at 34.0 and the third most total yards at 440 per game.
Love the Texans to bounce back here and record their first win of the season, especially with the home field advantage. They start as just 3.5 point favourites, a line which we are more than comfortable taking them at.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Tuesday 11.15am (AEST)
Are you a fan of defence? If so, stay far away from this one. The Falcons are 0-3 on the season and have allowed more point per game than any team in the league at 36. They have led all three of their games at half time but are yet to record a win, and have a really tough test against the 3-0 Packers on Tuesday morning.
The Packers might be undefeated but they have had their fair share of troubles on defence as well. They have allowed 28.3 points per game, which is the 12th most in the league and allowed 30 to a struggling Drew Brees on Monday morning.
Don’t read too much into this one. Two of the highest scoring offences and leakiest defences in the league going against each other should result in one thing, points. I’m comfortable backing the over here all the way up to 59.5.
Other Tips:
Friday October 2nd
10.20am (AEST)
Denver Broncos at New York Jets - See Above
Monday October 5th
4.00am (AEST)
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears - Bears +2.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Buccaneers -7.5 ($2.07 at Sportsbet)
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions - Saints -4 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals - Over 49.5 ($1.95 at Sportsbet)
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans - See above
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers - Cardinals -3.5 ($2.00 at Sportsbet)
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team - Over 45.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys - Cowboys -4.5 ($1.89 at Sportsbet)
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins - Seahawks -6.5 ($1.96 at Sportsbet)
7.05am (AEST)
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams - Over 48.5 ($1.95 at Sportsbet)
7.25am (AEST)
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs - Under 52.5 ($1.96 at Sportsbet)
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders - Raiders +3 ($1.95 at Sportsbet)
10.20am (AEST)
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers - Under 46.0 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Tuesday October 6th
11.15am (AEST)
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers - See Above
