2020 Winx Stakes: Assessing each runner's performance

Royal Randwick played host to the 2020 Winx Stakes last Saturday (August 22), a race on paper that looked one of the strongest Group 1s we were likely to see all year, and it didn't disappoint! Nine Group 1 winners lined up in the event, along with a further five that had placed at the top level.

The race contained a number of horses with high expectations for the Spring ahead - some delivered in spades, some were bitterly disappointing, others inconclusive. Our horse racing experts Tim Geers and Trent Crebbin have teamed up to give their thoughts on every runner's performance and what to do with them going forward.

Check out their review below!

2020 Winx Stakes: Assessing each runner's performance

DREAMFORCE (15^th, 16.8L)

Tim: He was caught three and four-wide on speed working the whole race, which isn’t easy to do at the best of times let alone when you’re first up. The race was run at a very strong tempo and unsurprisingly he was a spent force at the 400m mark. The three leaders dropped out to be the last three to cross the line which tells you exactly how the race was run. I’d be prepared to completely forgive his run. If he can find a race where he can find the rail and dictate in front, I’m sure we will see him bounce back, but the query is just whether that gut-buster will leave him flat for the rest of the prep.

Verdict: Forgive

THE BOSTONIAN (7^th, 3.8L)

Trent: The Bostonian ran well. He was well backed due to his excellent first up record, starting 2^nd pick at $6.50. From barrier 1 he was away well and lobbed just behind the leaders. Being so close to that brutal tempo chasing the pace was a tough ask fresh at 1400m, and perhaps being on the rail wasn’t ideal either. He stuck on okay whereas the three leaders completely dropped out. He’s not as effective 2^nd up but certainly isn’t hopeless as evidence by his 2^nd to Dreamforce (Te Akau Shark 3^rd) in the George Ryder last prep. With a few of these he may take a few weeks to get over the big exertion first up, so perhaps he has 4 weeks off into a George Ryder. Otherwise the Tramway or Chelmsford in 2 weeks’ time are logical options at 1400m and 1600m respectively.

Verdict: Pass mark

FIERCE IMPACT (3^rd, 0.4L)

Tim: This was my top selection in the race, I thought he was a terrific each way bet at the price and he proved me right, running admirably for 3^rd beaten less than half-a-length. He settled further back on the rail than I anticipated but he managed to get the gaps at the right stages and the tempo suited. He had his chance. He’s a genuine Group 1 horse and he’s going to be thereabouts in anything he contests, he just seems to find one or two better. He should improve up to the mile second up and will be very competitive in whatever he contests. Hopefully he continues to be each way odds.

Verdict: Follow

KOLDING (13^th, 6.9L)

Trent: Chris Waller gave a decent push for Kolding throughout the weak, suggesting that if you ignore his Melbourne form and his 7^th in the Doncaster carrying 57kg he was a huge price. I’m of the opinion that the horse is gone. His form last year winning the Epsom and Golden Eagle was outstanding, but whatever it is he’s nowhere near that form. Yes, he was wide on Saturday and no cover for a fair part of the race, but he was beaten nearly 7L and only the three on speed horses capitulated to finish behind him. There were excuses for Kolding, but you can only make so many excuses for a horse. Has to finish close up and put in a good performance or lob in a listed/group 3 race before you could think of backing him again.

Verdict: Sack

IMAGING (4^th, 0.5L)

Tim: There’s a fair argument to be made that he should have won. He was luckless first up in the Missile Stakes, which he also arguably should have won, and that carried on in the Winx Stakes on Saturday. He drew wide so was forced back and had to be ridden for luck, but the tempo of the race brought him right into it. He was badly held up in the straight and flashed home when he got clear running, beaten half-a-length on the line. The race was run to suit but he’s showed us in two runs this time in that he’s capable of winning at the highest level. Can follow with confidence, but the biggest concern is whether he bumps into one or two of his stablemates along the way.

Verdict: Follow

MASTER OF WINE (12^th, 6.7L)

Trent: The really interesting runner and run from the Winx Stakes. There are a couple of ways to look at Master Of Wine’s run. The glass half empty approach is that he started favourite, had a huge hype on him and was expected to be a freak that was versatile enough to win first up at 1400m on his way to a Caulfield Cup. On face value then, his run was very disappointing finishing 12^th. Nothing sectionally suggested he ran well either with the 5^th last fastest 600m. If you ignore the hype however and look at it from a future point of view, his grand final is 4 or 5 runs away in Melbourne. First up at 1400m in a brutally run race, which is something he hasn’t really seen before was always going to be tough. He’s too good a horse to sack off that run. He could just be having a real ‘building’ preparation, getting fitter every start, really looking to peak for one run. I have to see him again before jumping off from a future’s view. Not sure where he goes next whether he stays in Sydney for another run or travels to Melbourne. I’d expect to see him have one or two runs in Melbourne before the Caulfield Cup, perhaps an Underwood over 1800m at some point.

Verdict: See again

NICCANOVA (6^th, 3.7L)

Tim: It was a big run from the Brisbane visitor, who looked outclassed on paper but finished strongly to run 6^th. The tempo of the race really helped his cause, as did the fact he was race-fit and loves the wet. Most of the horses out of this race will improve with the run so he’s going to find it difficult at this level but if he can find a race down in grade, he can be very competitive. He might end up in a race like the Epsom down in the weights, where he could be competitive, but I doubt he can win something like that.

Verdict: Not at this level

STAR OF THE SEAS (2^nd, 0.1L)

Trent: Huge run from Star Of The Seas. Had the race shot to bits at the 200m when clearly heading Verry Elleegant. It was a great ride by Clipperton who drifted back from a wide barrier, realised Jmac was going wide and early on the winner, got on her back round the turn and came widest. At WFA he was treated awfully carrying 2kg more than her with a much lower handicap rating. He ran a huge race 3^rd up in the Doncaster in the Autumn running 2^nd to Nettoyer and is definitely on track for the Epsom which I assume would be his goal. The Bill Ritchie Handicap in three weeks at 1400m looks a suitable next race, giving him 2 weeks into an Epsom 3^rd up. He’ll be hoping that the good weather stays away because he’s much better on wet ground, so if we do continue to see the Sydney tracks drying out he won’t be as effective.

Verdict: Excellent, follow on wet ground

QUACKERJACK (14^th, 15L)

Tim: I thought he might come across to lead but once Wolfe kicked up he was always going to be in trouble. He found himself wedged and working between Wolfe and Dreamforce, and although he eventually slotted in one off the rail at the 600m, it was time to go again as soon as he did. He was gone at the 300m and understandably so. He’s definitely capable at G2 level but I think he’s going to struggle at G1 level unless he finds a very weak one. He can be forgiven for working the whole race, but he’s going to struggle against the big boys.

Verdict: Not at this level

BRANDENBURG (10^th, 5.3L)

Trent: Tim and I spoke about the map for Brandenburg in our video preview, speculating that he was the one who could be cast three wide on speed, however that wasn’t really the case. Wolfe with the blinkers on shot out of the gates with Quackerjack unable to cross. Dreamforce was cast and Brandenburg actually ended up 4^th one off the fence early. He eased back a bit as some of the early runs started to come but did ease off heels and had the back of Verry Elleegant for a bit in the straight but couldn’t sprint. Like The Bostonian I think he was just too close to the hot speed first up as a 4yo. He ran very well as a 3yo in the WFA George Ryder last Autumn, but no longer has that weight advantage and he faded quite significantly in the straight to finish 10^th. He probably needs something a touch easier at WFA level, otherwise is another that could drop to the Bill Ritchie and head towards an Epsom. He’s probably on the cusp of a WFA group 2 horse, so anything under that at 1400-1600m he can be considered in, however this run may have taken a fair bit out of him so just watching next start.

Verdict: Needs easier

VERRY ELLEEGANT (1^st, 0.1L)

Tim: Well, what can you say about the performance of this mare? She is an absolute superstar. I flat out said I didn’t think she could win and I thought she was under the odds, and she made me eat my words big time. Yes, the tempo of the race played into her hands, but she was wide and working throughout, first up off one soft trial over a distance well short of her best. That was her first win when first up from a spell in her career, so she is only going to improve with that run under the belt and as she continues to step up in distance. She looks set for the best preparation of her career, which is a scary thought given she won one Group 1 and ran 2^nd in three others last prep. With a lack of international competition this time around, she is undoubtedly the horse to beat in whatever she lines up in going forward. She’s on a path towards the Cups and/or Cox Plate, with the G1 George Main Stakes (1600m) on September 19 her logical next start. She will start favourite there and will win.

Verdict: Follow in anything

MELODY BELLE (11^th, 5.7L)

Trent: Another inconclusive run from star NZ mare Melody Belle. She settled in a nice spot midfield and tried to hook out but was tight for room at three stages in the last 500m or so. Even despite that I don’t think she was going well enough to finish in the top 5. Her first up run whilst forgivable did have a certain ‘is she gone’ feel to it, and this has a similar one. I thought if she was the mare she used to be she would’ve finished off a lot better, but Niccanova, who is a handy horse but no star, was comfortably holding his margin through the line. Perhaps at this stage of her career she’s looking for 2000m, but we won’t get to see that any time soon in Australia as she’s headed back to New Zealand. To me that says she’ll be ending her career over there either this Spring or next Autumn. I hope I’m wrong because she’s been a very good horse both in NZ and here, but that’s my gut feeling. From a future point of view look for her in a few Summer races over there and hope she can recapture that form and win a few more.

Verdict: Sack (in Australia)

CON TE PARTIRO (5^th, 1.2L)

Tim: I thought her run was terrific – it was her first go at WFA G1 level and she ran home very well into 5^th, beaten just over a length. Gai Waterhouse said pre-race that she would improve with that run under her belt, which is a good sign heading towards the George Main Stakes next start. She was a Group 1 winner second up last preparation and when she lines up in three weeks’ time, she will be very competitive. The problem for her is she will probably bump into Verry Elleegant again. Following the George Main, she will go to the Epsom – however her third up record isn’t terrific – and following that the plan is to head back to the US. If she comes up each way odds in the George Main next start, she could be a good place bet.

Verdict: Follow

FLIT (9^th, 5.2L)

Trent: Disappointing run for Flit in my opinion. She settled midfield on the rail and tried to ease off to make her run coming into the straight but was held up. Glyn went back to the inside and tried to follow The Bostonian, with Fierce Impact up along the rails. Despite having her momentum halted, Imaging went straight past her and Fierce Impact had shot away too. There were horses out wide going straight past her and she couldn’t even reel in The Bostonian late. I’m just not sure where Flit’s at in her career. I’ve never been a huge fan of her regardless- she fell in a Thousand Guineas in a three way go and has had one good win in the Light Fingers first up last prep, where she had every favour and only beat Lyre and Libertini. 1600m is probably her limit with 1400m her optimum distance. I doubt they continue the group 1 WFA route, and I doubt an Epsom is her race so she’s at a bit of a crossroads. Perhaps a race like the Golden Pendant for fillies and mares at group 2 level is her go in life. Not saying she’s done as a horse, but I don’t think she’s up to WFA level.

Verdict: Back to mares grade

WOLFE (16^th, 17.5L)

Tim: It’s no real surprise that he finished last, beaten 17.5L. He isn’t a Group 1 horse, the distance was well short of his best, he hates wet ground, and the tempo was suicidal. He needs to get up to 2000m in Group 3 company and back on firmer ground – then he might be competitive. But at this level, he is hopeless.

Verdict: Sack

ZEBROWSKI (8^th, 4.7L)

Trent: I was very happy to see Zebrowski get a run with Avilius coming out and spoke about him in the preview video. He took massive strides in just his 2^nd prep in the Autumn, going from a Newcastle maiden to running a 0.2L 2^nd in the Derby to Quick Thinker just 3 starts later, beating home the likes of Warning, Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio. I loved his run on Saturday when finishing 8^th, beaten 4.7L. He was a touch slow away and settled 4^th last, one off the fence. Coming around the turn he was last and whilst he took a while to pick up, he went straight past horses like Master Of Wine, Brandenburg and Flit. He seems to thrive off a hot tempo and to do that first up at 1400m in WFA group 1 company signalled to me that he has come back exceptionally well. The two likely targets for Zebrowski are The Metropolitan in Sydney, where he’s an $11 chance, and the Caulfield Cup, with as much as $34 available as I write this. I’d love to see him target a Caulfield Cup and think he’d be an excellent lightweight chance. His run was far better than current Caulfield Cup favourite’s Master Of Wine, so hopefully that is the path they go because I’ve had a nibble at the $34 all in. For mine, he and the winner are the two horses to follow from the race on a Cups path.

Verdict: Follow!