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UFC 304 Predictions & Tips

July 27th 2024, 12:08pm, By: Ben Talintyre

UFC Betting Tips

The premier mixed martial arts organisation heads back to London, England for UFC 304 with a card stacked with some of the best talent the UK has to offer. In the main event, English champion Leon Edwards puts his welterweight title on the line against Belal Muhammad, while in the co-main Tom Aspinall looks to defend the interim heavyweight crown against wrestler Curtis Blaydes. The likes of Paddy Pimblett, Arnold Allen, Muhammad Mokaev and Molly McCann also will make the Octagon walk this weekend as part of a card that is sure to have Manchester's new Co-op Live Arena rocking. We take a look at the main fights on the card below. 

Dabble

UFC 304 Preview & Betting Tips

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad

Both the main and co-main event are rematches where the first fight ended prematurely due to unfortunate circumstances. Leon Edwards heads home to Manchester to defend his welterweight belt against a man who has gone about his business in the welterweight division without getting much love or recognition. Belal Muhammad has won five straight to get his title shot and in that run he has comfortably beaten top contenders Gilbert Burns and Vicente Luque. 

The first time the pair fought, Edwards got the better of the early exchanges before an eye poke saw Muhammad’s eye swell shut, with the doctor intervening and waving it off. That was back in 2021 and some three years later we have the rematch. It would be remiss not to mention that Edwards was a huge favourite heading into the first fight and was picking Muhammad apart at will before the fight was stopped. 

While Edwards has a background in kickboxing, his clinch work is incredibly underrated and appreciated, making Muhammad’s task of grinding him out all the more difficult. In his second fight with Kamaru Usman, Edwards outgrappled the former champion and personally I believe Usman is a stronger wrestler than Muhammad. While I don’t expect Edwards to get him out of there early. I believe by the championship rounds it will be all Edwards and he will either finish him in the latter rounds or put a stamp on a dominant win. 

Leon Edwards to win in Round 4, 5 or decision

$2 (3 Units)

 

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes

The first fight between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes saw the Englishman blow his knee out in the opening exchanges, with Blaydes awarded a TKO win. Since then Aspinall has been dominant en route to claiming the interim heavyweight title against Sergei Pavlovich. That win should have seen him fight Jon Jones in a title unification bout but with the Jones and Stipe Miocic still yet to throw down, Aspinall has decided to defend his interim title in the meantime.

Blaydes is capable of winning this if he can grind Aspinall out as he has done to numerous strikers in his UFC career. However, Aspinall is part of a new breed of MMA fighters, who are well-rounded and have a solid wrestling base and stand-up skills. 

If Blaydes stands with the Englishman he will get knocked out and I also believe he will struggle to hold him down. And before too long Aspinall will land a big blow that slumps Blaydes and registers yet another impressive win. Give him that Jones fight as it is sure to be a cracker. 

Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO

$1.90 (3 Units)

 

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

Arnold Allen was not long ago seen as the man to dethrone Alexander Volkanovski but a couple of losses saw him drop out of contention. Since then, the Aussie lost his belt to Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway has cemented himself as a genuine belt threat once again. 

Allen went into his fight with the Hawaiian full of confidence and gave Holloway one of the toughest fights in his career but fell just short. Since then he lost to wrestling machine Movsar Evloev, hardly a knock on his ability. 

Now on a two-fight skid, he faces dangerous striker Giga Chikadze, who has been out of the cage for almost a year after losing to Alex Caceres. Before that, the Georgian was badly beaten up by Calvin Kattar and that is bad news against Allen, who is arguably a cleaner boxer than Kattar.

While Allen’s shine has worn off somewhat. he is a knockout threat with a well-developed all round MMA skillset. Allen should be able to control the exchanges and be able to dictate the pace and direction of the fight. While he may not stop Chikadze, he should dominate the fight and put his name back atop of the featherweight contenders. 

Arnold Allen

$1.45 (4 Units)

Ben is an avid sports reader, writer and viewer who immerses himself in the sporting world at any chance. He religiously follows world football (soccer) (up the mighty Reds (YNWA)), MMA and NRL, and tries to keep up to date on all sporting codes.

Ben is a western Sydney reporter for The Daily Telegraph and NewsLocal and has previously worked at Sky News and Fox Sports News. As a punter and sports betting analyst, Ben always looks for value. Before any tip or bet, Ben draws up his own market based off of his own knowledge before comparing to the sports betting markets. His best advice he has for punters is that a winning bet isn’t always a good bet!

Ben is always up to talk sport with anyone and everyone, and provide any further insight and thoughts into any sporting match or fight. So feel free to hit him up on Twitter! Ben's opinions are always his own and to the MMA fighters who he says are not good enough in his previews, he does do jiu jitsu but conceded you absolutely would still destroy him in a fight!

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