The Caulfield Cup was run and won on Saturday, and the Cox Plate is fast approaching. Chuck in the Geelong Cup and Moonee Valley Gold Cup, and with those races, the Melbourne Cup picture is becoming somewhat clearer.
We've narrowed it down to 'Contenders vs Pretenders', highlighting five horses on each side of the fence and the reasons why they should be followed/avoided after the Caulfield Cup and heading into this week, odds courtesy of Ladbrokes.
Melbourne Cup Contenders
1: Francesco Guardi: He was going to start favourite in the 2022 Melbourne Cup but injury put pay to that. Since then, he hadn't exactly set the world on fire, but his recent efforts have been sneaky good, the latest being the Turnbull at Flemington. Outclassed on paper but he kept finding the line and stuck on really well. He has accepted to run in the Geelong Cup on Wednesday but is also nominated for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, a race he won in 2022 which made him Cup favourite. $41 available.
2: Kovalica: Chris Waller has tried for over 12 months to make him a 1600m/2000m horse but he is giving every indication of appreciating a rise in trip for the Melbourne Cup. His run in the Hill Stakes at Rosehill was very good, closing off with purpose to just miss out on the win. He either runs in the Cox Plate or the Moonee Valley Cup with potentially an eye towards the Melbourne Cup. $51 available.
3: Okita Soushi: He was crying out for a firm deck, he got it in the Herbert Power and was ridden with intent. Add that up and he almost caused the ultimate boilover but found one better in stablemate Herman Hesse. Borderline already secured a start for the first Tuesday in November but a good showing in the Moonee Valley Cup on Friday night will all but assure that confirmed start and on dry ground, he'll run well. $81 available.
4: Sharp N Smart: NZ Derby winner from a couple of years ago who is heading towards the first Tuesday in November and his best is good enough to be dangerous. Forget he went around in the Turnbull when wide, doing work and wasn't 100% happy on the shifty track. Another that is down to run in the Moonee Valley Cup and can run an improved race. $81 for the first Tuesday in November.
5: Unusual Legacy: He does seem a very one paced type that will just keep finding the line, which was seen in The Metropolitan when third. He needs to win the Geelong Cup on Wednesday to be any real chance of getting into the final 24 and does get Joao Moreira to ride, which does signal clear intent from the Waller that he is their #1 seed for the Geelong Cup. $101 available for the Melbourne Cup.
Melbourne Cup Pretenders
1: Birdman: Looked a very progressive up and comer in the UK but Ozzie Kheir and his crew forked out coin to buy him and he'll join Chris Waller, with eyes potentially towards a Cups campaign. He did run third to Illinois in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, which IMO does look strong form and with the Waller polish, I anticipate the speed will be trained into his legs and connections will be desperate for a big win after falling short in the Melbourne Cup last year, starting in the Geelong Cup on Wednesday. But, from what I can see, he is a horse that will be much better in 12 months time. $26 for the Melbourne Cup.
2: The Map: She is the fairytale story and is already assured a run after the Andrew Ramsden win earlier this year. But, I am just not sure how well she is going. She was okay in the Herbert Power but was comfortably held and the jury looks out on her and how well she is going vs previous preps. Runs in the Geelong Cup on Wednesday. $26 available for the first Tuesday in November.
3: Onesmoothoperator: UK stayer trained by Brian Ellison who will arrive down under in winning form, with two on the bounce at Newcastle (UK) on the Synthetic, the latest being the Northumberland Plate, which is the UK's Synthetic version of the Melbourne Cup. Not a deep race but he was impressive and he will stay all day. Also keep in mind that in 2022 in the UK he was beaten four lengths by Without A Fight, the 2023 Cup winner. He runs in the Geelong Cup but I say he's got little hope. $51 available.
4: Sayedary Sadaty: Thought he was given a 12/10 steer by Ben Thompson in the Caulfield Cup but when asked for the effort, he went backwards and was very plain late in the piece. Off that run, if they press onto the Melbourne Cup, he's just making up the numbers. $51 is his current price.
5: Circle Of Fire: He was wide no cover throughout in the Caulfield Cup but even allowing for that, I was wanting him to finish his race off much better and he just whacked to the line. He is not the horse he was when winning the Sydney Cup and yes, he has the C Maher polish, but he looks rock bottom odds for the Melbourne Cup. $23 available
