Super Saturday visits three vastly different venues this week. The first game heads to Coffs Harbour with the Sharks taking an annual game to the north coast, with the Knights also forced to travel north for this game. Battling for consistency, the Knights are a tricky team for the Sharks to be facing. The second game is at the traditional Tigers home ground at Leichhardt, with the Tigers hosting the Cowboys. Both sides are rejuvenated and will want to maintain their improved efforts. To conclude, it is a blockbuster contest at one of the best rugby league stadiums around, Suncorp. The Dolphins host the Storm in a key match for each team to continue to establish their worth in 2023. This promises to be another great afternoon/night of action.
NRL Round 12 Saturday Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights
C.ex Coffs International Stadium, Saturday 20th May, 3pm (AEST)
The Sharks took care of business in their 20-14 victory over the Sea Eagles. In what could’ve been a tricky contest, it appeared as though they were always in control, conceding only a late try to narrow their margin of victory. They established this win with positive ball control (82% completion rate), strong ball carrying (8.8m per carry) and improved defence (just 23 missed tackles). It was one of their better performances which was needed after a poor showing at Magic Round. The Knights were also victorious in their match, defeating the Titans 46-26. In a high scoring match were defence appeared optional, the Knights scored 8 tries but conceded 5, completing at 82% with 52% possession and carrying the ball strongly. They still missed 32 tackles, but the effort was evident, as too was the impact of Ponga when he is at his best. The Sharks have chosen to take this game away from Cronulla but have never lost when traveling to this venue (2/2). They have won their past 2 games against the Knights by an average margin of 20 points, but these are their only two victories in their past 6 meetings. The odds ($1.35 vs $3.25) support another Cronulla victory, but it will be closer than previous meetings. The Knights know how to find momentum in a match and with Ponga pushing for a spot in Origin, expect him to find his best in this contest. It also promises to be a high scoring contest, with each averaging over 20 points in attack and defence.
Same Game Multi - Katoa & Marzhew to score @ $3.20 – 0.5 units
Knight +9.5 points/Total Points Over 46.5
$3.80 (1.5 Units)
Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys
Leichhardt Oval, Saturday 20th May, 5:30pm (AEST)
A 20-nil loss to the Rabbitohs suggests that the Tigers were comprehensively defeated but they were competitive enough over 80 minutes. Despite the feeling that their opponents never really got out of second gear, the Tigers were improved compared to their efforts earlier in the season. They had a superior completion rate (86%) and aimed to play a patient game; unfortunately, they had little to trouble their opponent’s defensive line. Positively, they kept a strong attacking team to just 3 tries. The Cowboys captured their second consecutive victory and 5th for the season with a 42-22 win over the Dragons. Uneasy about allowing their opponents so many points, they cannot be upset with the strong attacking display. The 7-try performance was developed by carrying the ball strongly, creating opportunities (10 line breaks) and taking their chances. Such a performance cannot be overlooked, regardless of the opponent. It is an effort they must build upon if they wish to climb up the ladder (and the NRL Power Rankings). The Cowboys are listed as favourites ($2.30 vs $1.62) and recent his supports this; the Cowboys have won 3 of the past 4 games against the Tigers, at an average winning margin of 10 points. The venue poses a challenge though; the Cowboys have won just 2 games in 12 attempts (17%) compared with the Tigers overall record of 54%. This is another tricky fixture that appears best served investing on the total points.
Prop Bet
Cowboys 1-12 @ $3.10 – 0.5 units (TAB)
Total Points Under 42.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
The Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm
Suncorp Stadium, Saturday 20th May, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Dolphins enjoyed a week off with the Bye in Round 11, following their Round 10 upset victory over the Sharks. Heading into the game as outsiders, they caused the upset of the round in their 36-16 win; this result was established in the first half as they scored 5 of their 6 tries inside 31 minutes. Completing at 85% with 51% possession, they carried the ball strongly and strangled their opponents with resolute defence. They only missed 24 total tackles. The same defensive structure will be required here, as the Storm appeared to have bounced back to form with a 24-16 win over the Broncos at home. Benefitting from a few positive calls going their way, the Storm, gave themselves every opportunity to win; they completed at 86% with 54% possession, carried the ball for more metres, made more post-contact metres and made only 10 errors. Their defence was also strong, although you cannot help but wonder how the match would’ve turned out had Reynolds remained on the field. That victory for the Storm has dropped their odds for this contest; they are favourites ($2.85 vs $1.43) but that is disrespectful to the Dolphins. They are right where they want to be though; overlooked and underrated. They have no fears playing on the big stage (60% win record at Suncorp) but neither do the Storm (76% win record at Suncorp). This game could go either way and the odds should be far closer. Rather than take a well-set line on (7.5 points), either team to win by less than 2 converted tries, with a greater stake in the match.
Same Game Multi
Tabuai-Fidow & Olam to score @ $6 – 0.5 units
Either Team by 12 Points or less
$1.72 (3 Units)
