The final UFC card of the year is here and it is one packed with high-level fights and plenty of drawcards. In the main event, Leon Edwards looks to defend his title against the brash Colby Covington, while in the co-main Alexandre Pantoja will attempt to defend his Flyweight crown for the first time against Brandon Royval. Also on the card Tony Ferguson looks to stop his dramatic skid against fan favourite Paddy Pimblett and Shavkat Rakhmonov will put his undefeated record on the line when he meets Stephen Thompson. We take a look at my best bets on the card below.
UFC 296 Preview & Betting Tips
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
Leon Edwards has asserted himself as one of the pound-for-pound best thanks to two back-to-back victories over Kamaru Usman. In the pair’s first encounter, Edwards was getting outworked before landing a highlight reel head kick but in the rematch, he was dominant and was better than the former champ everywhere. His opponent Colby Covington has been inactive in recent years but has dominated opponents put in front of him apart from Usman. I would have preferred to see Edwards face Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov but this is a more marketable fight.
Covington’s only win since 2020 was over Jorge Masvidal, far from a great feather in his cap. His fighting style weaponizes pace and endurance and while Covington has had great success pushing opponents up against the fence and then engaging his wrestling, I struggle to see him having that same success with ‘Rocky’. Edwards’ lateral movement is one of the best in the world and is one of his most underrated assets. Covington will be a good test for Edwards but the American’s defence has never been great and I see him being caught with something nasty from the Englishman. I believe Rocky will stop Covington in the latter rounds but the odds on offer are good enough that I am happy to play the money line to be a bit safer as the American has always been durable.
Leon Edwards to win
$1.72 (3 Units)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
Alexandre Pantoja took the belt from Brandon Moreno in his last fight and for his first defence meets a man he submitted just a couple of years ago in Brandon Royval. However, I do like the chances of Royval to turn the tables. In the pair’s first meeting, Pantoja was able to lock up a choke in the second round but he was looking like he was fading under Royval’s pressure before Royval got too overconfident and gave up his back.
Much like with Covington pace is a weapon when used effectively and Royval uses it well to make his opponents wilt under the forward pressure. Since his loss to Pantoja, he has reeled off three straight wins and has shown more poise and focus in those victories. I believe the loss to Pantoja is exactly what he needed. I expect Royval to force a high pace and find the finish.
Brandon Royval to win
$2.40 (3 Units)
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
I am backing Tony Ferguson to halt his dramatic fall here but admittedly with little confidence. This fight is a betting prospect for the sole reason that Paddy Pimblett is not that good. Ferguson in his prime would dismantle him and I am banking on purely a will-to-win standpoint, that he will have enough to grind out ‘Paddy the Baddy’.
Ferguson looked really improved before being stopped by a vicious head kick by Michael Chandler last year but since then he has been awful against Nate Diaz and Bobby Green. However, Pimblett isn’t going to out-strike him and will need to use his grappling game. Pimblett also has a horrible tendency to leave his chin up and open and it is not like all of Ferguson’s skills have gone out the window. While his wrestling isn’t great, it is still good enough in my opinion to be able to keep this fight standing. Pimblett will need to outwork Ferguson in front of a US crowd which also can sway close decisions. I am not putting too much money on Ferguson but at $3.50 the price is too juicy to not take a gamble.
Tony Ferguson to win
$3.50 (1 Unit)
