Two of the top sides in the AFL will square off on Saturday in Round 7 as the Cats take on the Blues at the MCG from 4.35pm. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the clash below.
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AFL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs Carlton
MCG, Saturday 27th April, 4.35pm (AEST)
The Cats have been the premier side in the competition through the opening six rounds of the season, starting 6-0 and remaining the only undefeated team in the competition after the Giants lost on the weekend.
They were impressive in tough conditions up in Brisbane on the weekend, claiming a 26-point win on the road on the back of a strong team performance. Despite the Lions having the top six disposal getters on the ground, it was the Cats who handled the wet weather better, kicking the final four goals of the game to break a deadlock that lasted nearly three quarters.
The Cats dominance to start the season is somewhat justified when you look at both their strength of schedule through the first six games as well as their injury list. Of their six opponents so far this season, only one sit inside the top eight (Western Bulldogs) and they have a combined record of 9-27. This week, they will be missing only Tom Stewart from their best 22, with the star defender suffering a concussion in the win over the Lions.
The Blues recorded a fantastic win over the Giants in a high scoring game at Marvel Stadium on the weekend. After training by as many as 20 points in the third quarter, the Blues piled on eight of the last 11 goals of the game to steamroll the Giants and win by 19 points.
Patrick Cripps and his midfield running partners Sam Walsh and George Hewett took it right up to the talented Giants midfield, racking up 105 disposals between them while the trio of tall forwards in Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow and Tom De Koning combined for nine goals.
The Blues have a few more problems at the selection table leading into this week as they sweat on the availability of defenders Jacob Weitering and Zac Williams. If either fail to prove fitness, they will join a lengthy injury list which includes Docherty, Silvagni, Saad, McGovern, Martin, Marchbank, Fogarty and Cerra.
Match Prediction
The two sides start pretty close in the betting odds with the Cats favoured by just 2.5 points. That line would have likely been a few more if the game was being played down in Geelong, but I think the MCG fixture and the potential for a raucous Blues crowd evens the gap a little here.
The Cats will also have a massive void to fill with Stewart being out. It’s the 2nd week in a row where the Blues have had the fortune of their opponents best defender being out and they capitalised on the absence of Sam Taylor last week as their tall forwards feasted.
The Blues have had a knack of winning these big games at the MCG in recent times and I think they can get the job done here on Saturday night. Their midfield is firing on all cylinders since the return of Sam Walsh and on paper, it is far stronger than the Geelong midfield that has been largely pieced together.
Carlton H2H
$2.15 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Over 164.5 Points – The Cats have had the best defence in the league this season but I think there will an adjustment period with the absence of Stewart. The Blues are one of the highest scoring teams in the league and have also allowed more points than any of the top six sides on the ladder.
Blake Acres 20+ Disposals – Some good odds still on the table for Blake Acres to rack up 20+ disposals in this game considering he’s passed that mark in 5/6 games this year and averages 21.3 touches per game.
Harry McKay 2+ Goals – I think McKay has been generally the deeper forward of the twin towers so far this year and has looked dangerous in basically every game. He has kicked at least two goals in 5/6 games this season, averaging 2.6 per game.
SGM Odds: $3.20 at BoomBet
