One of UFC’s most hyped prospects in its history Khamzat Chimaev meets one of its biggest fan favourites Nate Diaz in this weekend’s main event out of the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the co-main Tony Ferguson faces the dangerous Li Jingliang in a bout he almost needs to win to keep his UFC career alive. While the ever-entertaining Kevin Holland meets one of who I see as the biggest dark horses on the entire UFC roster, Daniel Rodriguez. Let’s get into my best bets on this weekend’s UFC279 card below.
UFC 279 Preview & Betting Tips
Update
In a sensational twist in a 24 hours no one saw coming, yesterday’s backstage brawl saw the press conference scrapped and this morning, main event star Khamzat Chimaev missed weight by 7.5 pounds. So now the main card has been reshuffled with Nate Diaz to fight Tony Ferguson in a five-round bout. While Chimaev now faces Kevin Holland in another five round fight and Li Jinjliang meets Daniel Rodriguez, MMA truly is a sport like no other. Here are my thoughts on the two new five round fights. If you want to read our original preview it can be found at the bottom of this page.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kevin Holland
Odds are about right here. Chimaev should win but this is a harder fight for the unbeaten star as Holland can go all day and antagonise anyone with his in-cage trash talk. However, not a fight I like from a betting standpoint whatsoever. Holland needs it on the feet and Chimaev on the ground. Holland has struggled against wrestlers before and Chimaev’s strength should allow him to muscle him down and control him. My only concern for the Swede is the five rounds is still unknown but if he can go a hard five which I believe he can, he should win.
Staying away.
Tony Ferguson vs. Nate Diaz
If Tony Ferguson can’t win this fight, he never is winning one. Diaz is slower and an easy target to hit. His entire forte at this stage in his career is surviving the early onslaught and hoping his opponent fatigues from punching him in the face. Ferguson has always been a cardio king and he should absolutely dominate this fight from start to finish.
Tony Ferguson to win
$1.72 (4 units)
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Original match previews for UFC279:
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz
This has a casual fans dream written all over it and any die-hard fan will watch it regardless, so the reality is it is likely to be the biggest non-title bout of the year. Khamzat Chimaev is a hungry contender who has run through everyone that wasn’t Gilbert Burns and even then, he showed his durability and willingness to entertain. The fact of this fight is the only way Diaz wins this is if Chimaev gasses like McGregor did against him. He is a much stronger wrestler and as long as he doesn’t get caught in a triangle choke showboating, he just wins however he wants. If Chimaev wants to he can end this early, however, I believe Diaz is still durable enough to hang in there and the likelihood is the Swede wants to show off a bit and play with his food. Therefore, my bet is this fight goes over 2.5 rounds and I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see it go all five, if the fight isn’t stopped for Nate Diaz looking like razor blades have been dragged over his face due to the amount of scar tissue that man carries.
Over 2.5 rounds
$2.60 (3 Units)
Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson
Tony Ferguson is now seemingly way past his prime and moves up to 170 pounds for the first time in more than a decade to face Li Jingliang. He looked good in round 1 against Chandler before becoming a highlight finish, while ‘The Leech’ has shown he can throw down with anyone in beating Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov by knockout in his last two.
I have always been a Tony fan; he is so fun to watch and just always shows up to give it his all but there are just so many questions to be answered. However, in saying that the odds are just silly. Jingliang is good but far from elite and Ferguson has always shown he is durable. I won’t be recommending much of a stake but with $3.75 on offer you would be silly not to take it in my opinion, so take it I will.
Tony Ferguson to win
$3.75 (1.5 Units)
Chad Anheliger vs. Heili Alatengheili
This is my banker of the card and the odds-on offer are not bad at all. Chad Anheliger burst onto the scene with an upset split decision win over Muin Gafarov on the Contender Series before going on to viciously knock out Jesse Strader in his UFC debut.
Alatengheili though is a different beast to what he has faced before. He absolutely starched Kevin Croom last time out in 47 seconds and has UFC wins over Daana Batgerel and Ryan Benoit. He has the power to consistently hurt Angeliger on the feet and Anheliger has fairly average output on the feet making minute winning unlikely. Add to the mix Alatengheili has the wrestling to dominate and I mean dominate this fight. Anheliger’s wrestling is a gaping hole in his game and in a fight where he is at a disadvantage on the feet this should simply be a one-sided beat down, 5 stake play.
Heili Alatengheili to win
$1.72 (5 Units)
