Week two of the AFL Finals series continues at the Adelaide Oval as Port Adelaide and GWS face off in a do or die clash. Can Port Adelaide bounce back? Or will the orange tsunami roll on into a prelim?
Remember to head to our AFL Tips page for continued coverage throughout the AFL Finals or check out our full Brownlow coverage in the lead up to the AFL’s night of nights.
AFL 2nd Semi Final Preview and Betting Tips
Port Adelaide vs GWS
Adelaide Oval, Saturday September 16th, 7.40pm (AEST)
Port Adelaide have made a huge call at the selection table in response to their 48 point loss to Brisbane, dropping Jeremy Finlayson who has been the Power’s leading goal kicker this season. Charlie Dixon returns for his first game since Round 20, while Dylan Williams is out after injuring his hamstring.
GWS stormed out of the blocks en route to a convincing win over St Kilda in the Elimination Final, the Giants ball movement was scintillating as they won their third straight game. The Giants will welcome back Stephen Coniglio who was a late out in the Elimination Final, with Xavier O’Halloran omitted making way for the former skipper.
The Giants lost the inside 50 and disposal count last week, however their transition from back 50 to forward 50 was outstanding as they cut through the Saints time and time again. Although it was entertaining to watch, it’s going to be tough for the Giants if they can’t win more of the ball at the source and play the game in their front half.
The blueprint for Port Adelaide can easily be found in their Round 22 win over GWS at the same venue they’ll meet at on Saturday night. The Power won the clearance count by seven, which led to a +14 differential in inside 50’s, and once they got the ball inside 50, the Giants couldn’t stop the Power. Port Adelaide scored from 46% of their inside 50’s in the 51 point victory, and they rank third in the AFL for scores per inside 50.
Port Adelaide are the third highest scoring team in the competition, averaging 93 points per game during the home and away season, however they were held to 75 points by Brisbane. Despite the Power winning contested possessions and clearances against the Lions, they lost the inside 50 count by 16 as the Lions restricted their ball movement out of the stoppages.
If the Power can get their forwards enough supply, they will kick a winning score, so the midfield battle looms large in this clash. Zak Butters (34 disposals), Ollie Wines (29), Connor Rozee (26) and Jason Horne-Francis (27) all had big outings against the Giants in Round 22, and if the midfield group fire on Saturday night, the Power will be hard to beat.
Although the GWS backline were immense against St Kilda, it’s a vastly different proposition against a far more dangerous Power forward line. The Power are 11-3 at the Adelaide Oval this season, and have beaten the Giants by margins of 51 and 55 points in their last two meetings at the Adelaide Oval.
Although the Giants are in form and margin won’t likely be to the extent of their last two games against the Power, Port simply have too much firepower inside 50 for the Giants to contain.
Port Adelaide -8.5
$1.92 (2 Units)
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Zak Butters 25+ Disposals: Zak Butters is on absolute fire, recording 31, 32, 30, 34, 31, 30 and 29 disposals from his last seven games. Butters has enjoyed playing against the Giants, averaging 27 disposals in his last three games against GWS.
Connor Rozee 25+ Disposals: Like his running partner Zak Butters, Connor Rozee has been a model of consistency this season. Rozee is averaging 26 disposals per game in 2023 and has hit the 25+ disposal mark in eight of his last nine games. Rozee had 29 disposals the last time he faced the Giants, and he is primed for a big performance in this win or go home fixture.
Stephen Coniglio 25+ Disposals: The former skipper has had an outstanding season in 2023, averaging 28 disposals per game and is a massive inclusion for Friday night’s clash. Coniglio will be looking to bounce back after a quiet outing against the Power in Round 22, and will be fresh after having the last two weeks off.
Ollie Lord Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Lord has been building well over the last month of the home and away season, and it culminated in a breakout performance in the Qualifying Final. Lord’s four goals against the Lions was a career high and the young forward has kicked a goal in five of his last six games.
SGM Odds - $3.50 at BoomBet
