The 2023-24 NFL season is underway and Monday boasts a massive 14 game slate for us Australian fans. Check out our preview for the key games of the day as well as betting picks for every matchup below.
NFL Week 1 Monday Betting Tips
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Monday 3am (AEST)
Bengals star quarterback Joe Burrows has made a habit of enduring an interrupted pre-season in his three years in the league so far. In 2020, his first pre-season was cut short due to COVID and the Bengals ended up losing their week one clash by three points to the Chargers.
In 2021, Burrow was rehabbing a torn ACL throughout pre-season and the Bengals went on to lose by three points to the Vikigns in Week 1. In 2022, Burrow missed the majority of the pre-season with a ruptured appendix and went on to lose to the Steelers in Week 1 by, you guessed it, three points.
Burrow has not been at 100% once again this pre-season as he recovers from a calf strain, but will be in the line-up in Week 1. Be on the watch for the Bengals to get off to a slow start once again in the 2023-24 season. On the other hand, the Browns made some strong moves in the off-season and many are predicting them as a smoky to win the AFC North division.
Betting Stats
- Over the past five years, divisional home underdogs have an impressive track record of going 7-0 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1. They've also posted a strong record of 4-1-2 straight up (SU) during this time, and their success extends further with a remarkable 15-2-1 ATS record since 2012 and an even more impressive 21-5-1 ATS record since 2009.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have excelled on the road in the last two seasons, boasting a 13-4 ATS record. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been a significant contributor to this success, with a career ATS record of 15-7 when playing away from home. In the last two seasons alone, he has an outstanding 12-4 ATS record on the road.
- In games where Deshaun Watson was the starting quarterback last season, unders were the prevailing trend, going 5-1.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Monday 6.25am (AEST)
The Eagles look the far better team on paper here but you can never count out the brilliance of Bill Belichick. The Patriots were just average last season but another pre-season with Belichick molding this roster and I think they will surprise some doubters this season.
They start as 4.5 point underdogs at home, which I think is a little high given they have barely lost a game at Gillette Stadium over Belichick’s two decades at the helm.
The Eagles are deserved Super Bowl favourites leading into 2023-24 after their stellar season last year, but I think a road trip to Foxboro in Week 1 is a tough task for any team, regardless of the talent on the roster. Back the Patriots here.
Betting Stats
- Going back to the year 2000, teams that found themselves on the losing side of the previous season's Super Bowl have struggled in Week 1 of the following season, managing just a 4-19 record against the spread. This trend has continued in recent times, with an 0-3 ATS record in the last three seasons.
- Bill Belichick, during his tenure as head coach of the New England Patriots, has been quite effective when playing as a home underdog, posting an impressive 15-8 ATS record. However, it's worth noting that in the previous season, the Patriots faced some challenges in this regard, going 0-3 ATS as home underdogs.
- Over the past five occasions when the New England Patriots have kicked off their season in Week 1, their games have consistently leaned towards the under, with five consecutive matchups resulting in the total points scored falling below the expected mark.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Monday 10.20am (AEST)
Sunday night football returns with a bang in Week 1 as a massive NFC East clash takes centre stage. The Cowboys are one of the favourites to win the NFC this season and they’ll be looking to kick off their season with a win on the road against their divisional rivals.
The Cowboys start as 2.5 point favourites on the road, which seems about right given the unknown that surrounded the NFC East last season and leading into the new year. The Giants should be frisky this season with a relatively healthy roster to start the year.
Tough to split these two teams so I’m opting for the unders here. I think both of these offences will take a few games to get into the swing of things and there should generally be a bit of extra spice in this game defensively given the divisional rivalry.
Betting Stats
- The New York Giants boasted the NFL's top ATS record last season, finishing at a remarkable 13-4 (including playoffs). In total, they held an impressive 14-5 ATS record when considering their postseason performance.
- Prime-time games over the past two seasons have seen a striking trend of unders prevailing, particularly when the road team is favored. In these situations, unders have dominated with a notable 30-10-1 record.
- Over the course of the last five years, divisional home underdogs have shown their strength in Week 1 matchups, maintaining a flawless 7-0 ATS record. Their success doesn't end there, as they've also managed a solid 4-1-2 SU record during this period.
NFL Monday Tips
49ers at Steelers - Under 41.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Panthers at Falcons - Falcons -3.5 ($1.95 at Ladbrokes)
Texans at Ravens - Ravens -9.5 ($1.85 at Ladbrokes)
Buccs at Vikings - Under 46.0 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Cardinals at Commanders - Cardinals +7 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Titans at Saints - Over 41.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Jaguars at Colts - Jaguars -4.5 ($1.91 at Ladbrokes)
Rams at Seahawks - Under 45.5 ($1.96 at Ladbrokes)
Packers at Bears - Over 41.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Dolphins at Chargers - Chargers -3 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
