One of, if not the biggest single day in the NFL every season is Thanksgiving Thursday, with 11 hours of football across the day. This Thanksgiving, we get two of the best teams in the NFL as heavy favourites in the two early games, before a prime-time matchup between the New England Patriots and the Minnesota Vikings. With favourites generally dominating these Thanksgiving matchups, are we going to see a day of chalk, or can the dogs have their day? Either way, give me all the excuses to sit and watch 11 hours straight of NFL on a Friday, and I’ll take it.
Monday Night Football in Week 11 saw us select another winner, with the 49ers destroying the Cardinals 38-10, in a no sweat winner. We now sit at 18-14-1 (+8.02u) for the season in primetime.
NFL 2022-23: Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Preview & Betting Tips
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Ford Field, Friday 4:30am AEDT
Are the Bills back? I’m not so sure. Despite looking rather comfortable in a 31-23 victory over the Browns last week, I’m still not ready to put the Bills back on top of my power rankings, and this number seems like the market has moved them back. Since their bye in week 7, Josh Allen has been horrible, throwing 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, whilst only averaging 237.5 yards per game.
The Lions, meanwhile, currently are on a 3-game winning streak, the best winning streak in the NFC. They are getting healthier on offense, scoring 31 points in each of their last two wins. I see the Lions scoring enough points in this one to keep this close, but I’ll split my bets on the Lions side, and the total going over.
Alternate Bet: Detroit Lions +10 - $1.90 at Betfair (1 Unit)
Over 53.5 Points
$1.92 (1.5 Units)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Friday 8:30am AEDT
Two teams heading in different directions as we move towards the playoffs, with the Cowboys looking as good as any team in the NFC right now. After destroying the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings in Minnesota last week, the Cowboys get the Giants at home on Thanksgiving, with the Giants being decimated by injuries over the past couple of weeks, the Cowboys should blow the doors of their NFC East rivals.
These two teams met on Monday Night Football in week 3, with the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys coming away 23-16 winners on the road. They now enter this game on Thanksgiving as 9.5/10-point favourites, with their offense humming along, averaging 35.25 since the return of Dak Prescott. The Cowboys won the first matchup between these teams with their defence, but I see them putting on a clinic on the offensive side of the ball this week, with the Giants season quickly going downhill. Cowboys to win and cover.
Dallas Cowboys -10
$2 (2 Units)
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Friday 12:30pm AEDT
The Vikings were exposed last week, after the term ‘fraudulent’ had been thrown around about the 8-1 Vikings prior to their humbling loss to the Cowboys at home. This week, they get a defensive unit that has been electric of late, and with the massive loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw effecting this Vikings offensive line, quarterback Kirk Cousins could be running for his life in this game.
The Patriots are currently the number 1 defence in the league per DVOA, and if Head Coach Bill Belichick is known for anything when scheming up his defence, it’s that he takes out the opponent’s number 1 player. In the Vikings’ case, this is Justin Jefferson. If Belichick can limit the effectiveness of Jefferson, I expect the Patriots to hold the Vikings to under 17 points, giving the Patriots a great chance at winning this game.
The added element of Kirk Cousins in prime time must factor into this handicap, with the Vikings quarterback’s record in prime time at 10-18. This game is as prime time as it gets, under the lights on Thanksgiving, and I give all the advantages to Bill Belichick and his men. Patriots for the win.
New England Patriots H2H
$2.24 (1.5 Units)
