The second game of Friday’s AFL Round 9 double-header sees the Fremantle Dockers hosting the ladder leading Sydney Swans out West. It’s a battle of first versus sixth, so there’s plenty on the line in this clash! Jack Tobin provides a full betting preview below.
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Fremantle vs Sydney
Friday 8:30pm AEST, Friday 10th May, Optus Stadium
Sydney moved to the top of the AFL ladder with a commanding performance in a 29 point win over arch rivals GWS. After trailing by 15 points at quarter time, the Swans kicked 12 goals to 5 after quarter time, sending a massive statement to the rest of the competition.
Fremantle took care of business at the MCG, with a 54 point victory over Richmond to pick up their second straight victory. Caleb Serong once again led the way out of the middle for the Dockers with 38 disposals, while Luke Ryan recorded a career high 39 disposals.
Clearances had been an area of weakness for the Swans this season, however they came to the SCG with a purpose. The Swans won the clearance count by 12, and the contested possession count by 16 as Sydney comfortably won the midfield battle against one of the best midfields in the league.
The Swans major advantage in this matchup is their offensive capability in comparison to Fremantle’s. Sydney are the highest scoring team in the AFL averaging 103 points per game in 2024. The Dockers are averaging 82 points per game this season, however that is padded by scoring 103 points against seventeenth placed Richmond and 102 against eighteenth placed North Melbourne.
Fremantle have only played two sides that are currently in the top eight, only managing to score 63 points in losses against Carlton and Port Adelaide. On the contrast Sydney are 3-0 against top eight sides, and have averaged 105 points per game across those three wins.
If Sydney gets out of the blocks early, it’s difficult to see Fremantle finding a way to go with them. Ironically playing at Optus Stadium will be advantageous for Sydney, giving them more space to get the ball to the outside and keep pace on the game.
Sydney have won their last two games against the Dockers at Optus Stadium by margins of 29 and 17 points, kicking an average score of 93 points across those two games.
Match Prediction: Although Fremantle have steadied over the last fortnight, it’s important to look at the sides they’ve beaten this year. Zero wins against top eight teams, with their Round 7 win over the eleventh placed Bulldogs their most notable win of the year when it comes to ladder position.
Sydney on the other hand have answered every challenge they’ve been presented with this year, and their brand of football stands up in all three facets of the game. The Swans have won four in a row and have produced scores of 104, 110, 118 and 98 points across the last month, which is simply too much for Fremantle to compete with.
Sydney -6.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Isaac Heeney 25+ Disposals: After dropping a season low 21 disposals in Round 7, Isaac Heeney was back last week with 26 disposals and a goal against the Giants. Heeney has reached 25 disposals in seven of his eight games this season.
Errol Gulden 25+ Disposals: Errol Gulden is another Swan who is hitting the 25 disposal mark for fun this season, with the young star recording at least 25 disposals in six of his last seven games. Gulden averaged 30 disposals across his two matches against Fremantle last season.
Nick Blakey 20+ Disposals: The Lizard had a quiet outing with the ball living in the Swans front half for large portions last week, and will be eager to bounce back on the wide expanses of Optus Stadium. Blakey had hit the 20+ disposal mark in four consecutive games leading into last week, and is averaging 21 disposals per game this year
SGM Odds: $3 at BoomBet
