A massive week of NFL action is capped off with a stinker of a Monday Night Football game, when the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts (4-6-1). Neither of these teams are playoff contenders, and I’m having a tough time figuring out what the NFL were thinking in this spot. Anyhow, the good thing about gambling is it can make any game interesting, so why not try and find some value, right?
A terrible Thanksgiving Day saw us give back over half our profit for the season, with a couple of unlucky losses. We now move to 19-17-1 (+3.92u) for primetime games on the season. Let’s get back some of that profit.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts Preview & Betting Tips
Lucas Oil Stadium, Tuesday 12:15pm AEDT
Last Week
The Steelers looked good offensively last week, putting up 30 points against a very good team in the Bengals. They managed to shut down the run, which bodes well for their matchup this week with the Colts, however given they won the turnover battle 2-0 at home, they must be a little disappointed in not coming home with victory. Pittsburgh will be happy that they finally seem to be getting some production out of second year running back Najee Harris, with the Alabama product rushing for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past two weeks. They’ll need more this week, with the Colts rushing defence among the best in the league.
The Colts didn’t manage to get their second straight win last week, however played the Eagles tough in a 17-16 loss at home, which they led 13-3 heading into the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan has been solid since returning, however much like the Steelers, it has been the increased production from their bell cow Jonathan Taylor that has really pushed the Colts along offensively. Taylor has rushed for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns in the past two weeks. Jeff Saturday appears to have this team up for the fight.
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Steelers
Williams Jackson III / Akhello Witherspoon (CB) – OUT
Jaylen Warren / Jeremy McNichols (RB) – OUT
DeMarvin Leal (DE) – OUT
Chris Boswell (K) – OUT
Karl Joseph (FS) – OUT
Calvin Austin III / Anthony Miller (WR) – OUT
Miles Boykin (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Indianapolis Colts
Armani Watts (DB) – OUT
Shaq Leonard (OLB) – OUT
Tyquan Lewis (DE) – OUT
Andrew Ogletree (TE) – OUT
Carter O’Donnell (OG) – OUT
Kwity Paye / Yannick Ngakoue (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
This number was Steelers +3 on the lookahead, but after the Steelers impressive display against the Bengals last week, the number re-opened at Steelers +2.5, where it has sat basically all week. Whilst I got on the Steelers at +3, I’m leaning towards the Colts now to cover the spread here. I have the Colts as 1.3 points better on a neutral and given that the Colts have one of the better home field advantages in the league, I make this right around Colts -3.
As mentioned above, both teams will be heavily reliant on their rushing game on the offensive side of the ball, and whilst the Steelers have traditionally been one of the better rushing teams in the league, I trust the Colts to have the better off things in this regard. I rate Jonathan Taylor higher than Najee Harris, and the Colts offensive line is also better than the Steelers’ line in my opinion.
I hate betting on Jeff Saturday, given the enormous mismatch in coaching, however if it’s under 3 I must bet the Colts. At Betfair you can currently buy a half point to move the line to 2 for what is still a fair price, and I’ll take that with the likelihood of a low scoring game.
Indianapolis Colts (-2)
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
