Two weeks to go in the NFL regular season, and there is still plenty left to play for in almost every game this week. We kick things off in Nashville, as the Dallas Cowboys (11-4) travel to face the Tennessee Titans (7-8). The Cowboys need a win to keep the pressure on the Philadelphia Eagles in the race for the NFC East, however the Titans have little to play for. A win or loss here means nothing for the Titans, as their season hinges on a week 18 matchup with AFC South rivals the Jacksonville Jaguars. This must play into our handicapping of this one.
It was a rough weekend for our NFL best bets, going 1-3 on Boxing Day, before the Colts were hammered on Monday Night Football. Our record now sits at 29-28-1 (+0.82u) for the season, with these 3-game slates killing us.
Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans Preview & Betting Tips
Nissan Stadium, Friday 12:15pm AEDT
Last Week
The Cowboys took part in one of the games of the year, prevailing 40-34 in a back-and-forth battle with the Philadelphia Eagles. After a shaky start from Dak Prescott, he started to find his main man CeeDee Lamb over the middle with regularity. The 3rd year wideout had a monster day, catching 10 receptions for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. Prescott, meanwhile, finished with 347 yards and 3 touchdowns, as the Cowboys kept their slim NFC East hopes alive with victory over the Jalen Hurts-less Eagles.
The Titans also played a Divisional rival, as they took on the lowly Houston Texans at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was ruled out, leaving rookie QB Malik Willis to start. Willis struggled, throwing for 99 yards and 2 interceptions. Derrick Henry was solid, rushing for 126 yards and a touchdown, however it wasn’t enough, as the Titans handed the Texans only their 2nd win of the season.
Injury Report
Dallas Cowboys
Anthony Brown / Jourdan Lewis (CB) – OUT
Devante Bond / Devin Harper (LB) – OUT
Terence Steele / Matt Waletzko (OT) – OUT
Jonathan Hankins (DT) – OUT
Micah Parsons / Leighton Vander Esch (LB) – QUESTIONABLE
DeMarcus Lawrence / Samuel Williams (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Tony Pollard (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill (QB) – OUT
Caleb Farley / Chris Williamson / A.J. Moore / Elijah Molden / Terrance Mitchell (DB) – OUT
Nate Davis / Ben Jones / Dillon Radunz (OG)
Taylor Lewan / Nicholas Petit-Frere / Jamarco Jones (OT) – OUT
Da’Shawn Hand (DE) – OUT
Derrick Henry (RB) – DOUBTFUL
Jeffery Simmons (DE) – OUT
Match Preview
This number is moving, and moving fast. The lookahead last week was Cowboys -3, before the news of Ryan Tannehill being ruled out for the season. The number reopened at Cowboys -9.5 with Malik Willis expected to start at QB for the Titans, and that number has kept moving all the way through 10, up to Cowboys -12. I expect the number to close north of here, potentially at Cowboys -14, but who knows?
One of the main reasons for this massive move, was the early realisation the Titans have nothing to play for this week. Whether they win, lose or tie, the Titans will have a ‘win and in’ game next week against the Jags. Because of this, the Titans are expected to rest several stars. Stud DE Jeffery Simmons has already been ruled out, and there is the expectation that Derrick Henry won’t go. With several other starters expected to be ruled out, handicapping this game is near impossible.
I will look at the one constant, and that is the Cowboys offense, which has been flying of late. Since their bye in week 9, the Cowboys have averaged 35.9 points per game, whilst averaging 28.9 points per game across the whole season. The Cowboys team total is set at 25.5, and unless they no-show, I don’t see how they don’t get to this total.
Dallas Cowboys (team total) over 25.5
$1.85 (3 Units)
