Week 5 on the NFL season saw our tips going 8-8, taking us to 44-36 on the season. We head into our first bye affected week, with 4 teams taking the week off, leaving us with 14 games. Check out our betting tips for every game in Week 6 here.
Lincoln Financial Field, Friday 11:20am AEST
Yet another primetime game featuring Tom Brady and his band of reigning champs, this time against the 2-3 Eagles. The 4-1 Buccs have had some minor injury problems to deal with so far, but for the most part it has been smooth sailing. Brady himself is playing at a ridiculous level, throwing the ball further downfield than we’ve seen for years, but with the same kind of efficiency we’re used to. That allows the team to score fast and often, and sets up a challenging task for the opposition to overcome a competent defensive unit.
The Eagles are a far less complete team, with Jalen Hurts continuing to largely impress, but showing plenty of signs that he’s still raw when it some to passing and decision making. It doesn’t help that most of the receiving group is also made up of raw talents like Devonta Smith and Jalen Reagor, or veterans like Zach Ertz. An inability to get the run game going at a high level through Miles Sanders is also problematic. While not among the leakiest defensive units in the league so far, they still struggle to slow down good offences as shown against the Cowboys and the Chiefs when conceding 40 points. With Hurts likely to come under substantial pressure from the Buccs pass rush, I can’t see the Eagles being able to keep this one close.
Heinz Field, Monday 11:20am AEST
Our Monday morning game lacks the excitement factor of recent weeks, thanks largely to a Geno Smith v Ben Roethlisberger matchup at quarterback. The gruesome Russel Wilson finger injury changes the context of the game entirely. Geno Smith actually showed he was able to move the ball last week, but he also showed he has more mistakes in him than Wilson. It’s a downgrade for the passing game overall, and with Chris Carson still battling a neck issue, the run game may be reliant on Alex Collins once again. With the defence failing to limit decent opposition to anything under 20 points so far, it will be a tough ask for the banged up offense to score enough points.
The Steelers are 2-3, having played possible their best game of the season so far to beat the Broncos last week. The defensive outfit is still very capable, although not terrifying by any means. Big Ben and his receiving group are far from electric, only exceeding 20 points in two games, with a best of 27. Still, with rookie Najee Harris proving effective both running and catching the ball, and a reasonably talented trio of wide receivers, 20+ points is fairly likely against the Seahawks. This could very well turn into an attritional game, but I like the Steelers to clinch it something like 24-17.
Nissan Stadium, Tuesday 11:15am AEST
The 4-1 Bills are the talk of the town this week after humbling Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs in Beek 5. After a shock week 1 loss to the Steelers, the team has recorded 4 massive victories by 18, 22, 35 & 40 points. That speaks volumes about the quality on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen can move the ball at will through the air, while he and his running backs can do enough to keep teams honest on the ground. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders to the receiving group has worked wonders so far, with a great connection already established. Dawson Knox is on fire, and whatever the defense is doing is proving impossible for oppositions to overcome.
Meanwhile the 3-2 Titans had their best win of the season over the winless Jaguars, but their season has been far from convincing so far. A large part of the problem is a breakdown in the teams passing game. Injuries to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones can go along way to explaining that, and both might be ready to play this week if Jones gets through practice. One thing that remains convincing is the form and class of human battering ram Derrick Henry, who has overcome a poor week 1 by stringing together 4 big games in a row with 100+ yards rushing, 7 touchdowns and some more receiving work than previous seasons. The biggest remaining question mark is the teams ability to limit good offences, with 30+ conceded to the Seahawks and Cardinals by what is considered a fairly talent poor defensive unit. Given all this, I struggle to see the Bills being kept under 30 points yet again, and expect it will be a bit too much to ask for the Titans to keep up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles - See Above
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars +3 ($2.00 at Sportsbet)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts - Texans +10 ($1.91 at Sportsbet)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Packers -4.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team - Chiefs -6.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers - Panthers +1 ($1.94 at Sportsbet)
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens - Chargers +3 ($1.84 at Sportsbet)
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions - Bengals -3.5 ($1.86 at Sportsbet)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants - Rams -9.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns - Cardinals +3 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos - Raiders +3.5 ($1.86 at Sportsbet)
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots - Cowboys -3.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers - See Above
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans - See Above
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