Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the Moonee Valley night meeting on Friday, November 3rd.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 with the rail out 5m. Judging by last weekend, there will be no harm in settling up on speed and rails-in-run.
In Episode 7 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Flemington and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Friday and Saturday! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 Red Is The Rose
Best Value: Race 8 Sayasuri & Brugal Reward
Race 1
I had this between RAID THE CABINET and RIVER REWARD. Raid The Cabinet comes off two placings and gets the blinkers on first time here. He has the ability to settle up on speed which should be advantageous and this is by no means a strong maiden. River Reward was good when running 3rd on debut at Pakenham and he returned from a 206-day spell with a nice enough effort at Cranbourne. He was first up over 1400m on that occasion so he will have come on for the run, he draws well and if they are able to come home from off the pace, he will be a live chance.
TIP: River Reward
Race 2
RED IS THE ROSE should be able to cross from barrier 8 and if she’s able to do that without using too much petrol she’ll be awfully hard to run down. She’s raced in better races than this, and comes out of a strong form race last start behind Fox Hall and Another Coldie, who have both run well again since. She gets in very well with the claim for Stockdale and should take plenty of beating. NIMINYPIMINY is a non-winner but she maps to get a suck run just behind the leaders. She got a similar run last start and just had no luck going to the line, so if she gets clear running today this is as good a chance as any for her to win.
TIP: Red Is The Rose (Best Bet)
Race 3
Once again, if they’re able to make ground, EBEDIYIN looks very hard to beat here. He won two starts ago at this track over a similar distance, and backed it up with a solid run last start behind Sebring Dream and Violate, who has since come out and won. The 3kg claim for Ethan Brown is very handy, and with the small field he should be able to stay in touch. If the rail is hot, JOLIE’S CAFÉ will be the one to run down with just 52kg on his back after the claim. Should be able to jump straight to the lead from barrier 2 and the form out of his race two starts ago behind Rock Away has been franked. Looks for sharp improvement from FONTEIN LAD.
TIP: Ebediyin
Race 4
BEACH LIFE comes out of an OK form race and should roll forward from barrier 10 to either lead or sit outside the leader. He gets a big drop in weight with the rise in grade here but the step up in trip should suit him and he should go close. ELECTRIC FUSION comes out of much stronger races and draws beautifully in barrier 1, which should allow him to sit right up on the speed. It was only two starts ago that he finished 3rd behind Lord Fandango, who then ran a luckless 4th in the Caulfield Cup. He was fairly poor last start but can bounce back here on a track he’s had success at in the past. Expecting sharp improvement from GET THE PICTURE, while Weir’s horse CRAFTY DEVIL can’t be dismissed.
TIP: Beach Life / Electric Fusion EW
Race 5
These races are always difficult betting races but WAIT FOR NO ONE gets the blinkers applied for the first time here and if he were to produce anything close to his best form he’d surely win this. From barrier 4 he should bounce straight to the lead and if the blinkers improve him, they’ll have a hard time catching him. I thought the stablemate ROYALIC was probably the best chance of running him down after a string of consistent displays, while DEFINIA and PRAVRO both come into this first up, which looks a deliberate plan from Gwenda Johnstone. They’ll be suited by a hot pace. MISHANI MISCHIEF is another that’s first up here, which is when he races best, and Mick Cerchi wouldn’t send GROGAN’S ANVIL here if it wasn’t a chance.
TIP: Wait For No One
Race 6
This is one of the tougher races on the night but I’m going to have a wild throw at the stumps with SPARROWS at 25/1, purely because it seems very odd for Phillip Stokes to bring a horse to Melbourne on a Friday night with this kind of form. He won first up at Gawler before being comfortably beaten last start, but gets the blinkers back on third up here, and I just can’t see Phillip Stokes bringing a horse to Melbourne if it didn’t have some sort of chance of running well. Very much a speculative bet. RIVERINA ROMANCE is hardest to beat after breaking through for a nice maiden victory last start. Draws the inside pole. MY UNICORN won two starts back before running 2nd in Adelaide last start and can go close, while Robert Smerdon has TEZLAH engaged, who was impressive in breaking its maiden last start. Could also be worth something at $12.
TIP: Tezlah EW / Sparrows EW
Race 7
After the scratching of Ascot Red there’s really only three to talk about in this race I think. There’s absolutely no speed at all in the race other than the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott-trained ALMALITA. She looks to get a pretty soft lead and steps up to the 2500m after winning over 1900m last start. I’ll only have a saver bet on her, but she definitely needs to be included purely because of that pace factor, especially if they’re struggling to make ground up to this point. I’m prepared to give SHERLOCK HOLMES one more chance, in the hope he will settle a touch closer from barrier 6. He was given no hope with a poor ride two starts ago, before dropping back in distance last start and recording the fastest final 400m in the race. Back up to 2500m now, he really gets his chance to win here. ZILBIYIR might be a wet tracker, but he finds another winnable race here after saluting as our Best Value Bet last start at $26. He was aided by a really strong tempo on that occasion, which is the biggest concern for him here as he’ll get a long way back from barrier 12. The horse is flying this prep, though. I can’t let him go around without my money after what he did last start. Getting $9.50 for him tonight. Backing him and Sherlock Holmes with a saver on Almalita.
TIP: Sherlock Holmes / Zilbiyir EW
Race 8
Probably the most competitive race of the night and there’s three I’m interested in, all at terrific odds. The first is SAYASURI who comes into this third up from a spell. She’s undefeated third up from three starts, has three wins at the distance and has won at the track and distance. She draws sticky in the wide gate, but she gets a 2kg claim and looks set to peak tonight. Keen to have something on at $15. BRUGAL REWARD has been just a bit disappointing this preparation, but she generally takes a few runs to come good, and she’s been running on wet tracks. She was luckless on firm ground two starts ago, and now that she’s four runs into her prep, she is ready to do something. She’s won two from three at this track and is undefeated at the track and distance. Draws barrier 1 and can give this a shake at $11. Finally, HOLLYWOODGIRL was sound when winning last start, and the horse she beat has subsequently come out and won, so the form is reasonable. Worth including at $26.
TIP: Sayasuri EW / Brugal Reward EW (Best Value)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
