The AFL Finals continue this week with two massive Semi Finals on Friday and Saturday night. Melbourne and Carlton kick things off on Friday night at 7.50pm from the MCG in a blockbuster in front of what should be another full house. As always, we have you covered with a full preview and AFL betting tips for the clash below.
Remember to head to our AFL Tips page for continued coverage throughout the AFL Finals or check out our full Brownlow coverage in the lead up to the AFL’s night of nights.
AFL 1st Semi Final Preview and Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Carlton
MCG, Friday September 15th, 7.50pm (AEST)
How did Melbourne fail to win that game against the Magpies last week? In my opinion, that is arguably the most dominant a team has ever been in a loss. The Dees recorded 69-37 inside 50s and controlled possession for basically the entire fourth quarter but just couldn’t get over the line, going down by seven points. The early loss of Andrew Brayshaw certainly had an effect on the team, but you can’t help but feel the Dees still let one slip there.
The Dees backline and midfield were dominant but they just couldn’t turn that into scores, as the decision to bring Tom McDonald in for his first game since Round 11 proved to be the wrong one. Now the Demons face some big decisions at the selection table this week. Do they give McDonald another run? Or do they roll the dice with Brodie Grundy or Ben Brown for this must win clash.
The Blues were dominant for the majority of the game in their elimination final against the Swans, shooting out to a 30-point lead in the 2nd quarter and holding on to win by six points after a very shaky 3rd quarter saw them allow five goals to the Swans. The Blues midfield contingent was dominant, with Walsh, Acres, Hewett and Cerra all turning in strong performances.
The Blues will also have some big decisions to make at the selection table. Key forward Harry McKay was badly concussed in the win over the Swans, meaning he’ll miss at least this week, while mid-sized forward Jack Martin remains on the sidelines through suspension. Do the Blues embrace the smaller forward line as they did through their dominant period this season, or will they inject some height into the line-up and play Jack Silvagni for his first game since Round 19?
What a game this is shaping up to be. The Demons looked as good as you can in a loss on the weekend, so it’s not as if they are coming into this game in bad form, while the Blues have proven to be one of the better sides in the AFL over the back half of this season.
What I keep coming back to in this one though is the Demons' defence. They have been so rock solid there all season, allowing the 2nd fewest points in the AFL and kept the Pies to just 60 points at the MCG last week.
The Blues offensive woes have been prevalent at times this season. Outside of St Kilda, the Blues were the lowest scoring team in the top eight this season and have scored just 74.2 points per game across their last five. When they played the Dees at the MCG back in Round 22, they put up just 60 points despite winning that game.
I can’t see this Blues side scoring more than 75 on Friday night. I think the Dees address the issues they had in offence this week and win this one to book a Preliminary Final date with Brisbane at the Gabba next week.
Melbourne -6.5
$1.90 (2.5 units)
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Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals – Stood up and showed why he is arguably the best player in the league last week. With the Demons struggling in the 1st half, Petracca put the team on his back after the main break, finishing with 29 touches. If he brings that intensity from the opening bounce this week, he should have it on a string.
Alex Neal-Bullen 1+ Goal – The small forward has kicked nine goals in his last nine games and dobbed one in each of the Demons games against the Blues this season. Could be asked to do a little more if the Dees decide to go with a smaller forward line this week.
Under 156.5 total points - Given the lack of forward efficiency of Melbourne, and the rock solid defence they possess, this looks like being another low scoring battle. They could only manage a total of 116 points between them in Round 22, so a play on the unders helps to boost our multi nicely.
SGM Odds - $4.75 at BoomBet
