Tennis heads to Hong Kong this week, with the likes of Andrey Rublev, Frances Tiafoe and Marin Cilic among those looking to kick off their season with a title and 250 ranking points.
Let’s take a look at the draw quarter by quarter, then come back to settle on some outright selections that represent value. It is worth noting that in this draw, it is only the top 4 players (one in each quarter) that receive a first round bye.
ATP Hong Kong Preview & Betting Tips
Quarter 1
Andrey Rublev is the top seed and is looking to take advantage of a relatively solid draw here. There is Rublev and six other players in this quarter, and three of them are qualifiers and the other three are Cachin, Gojo and number 8 seed Arthur Fils. Fils took his game to another level in 2023, however will need to be at his absolute best to challenge Rublev in this quarter.
Quarter 2
Frances Tiafoe has the first round bye in this quarter as the number 3 seed. There are a couple of interesting names in this section who could be capable of an upset win, but stringing together multiple wins at this level may be a bit of a stretch. Tiafoe should be able to make his way out of the quarter barring a peak performance from MiomirKecmanovic, and I will be keeping a close eye on Botic Van De Zandschulp and his level. He started 2023 slowly due to injury and struggled with form later in the year after some missed opportunities, so will be looking to right the wrongs of last year.
Quarter 3
If there was a quarter to attack, it is the one with Francisco Cerundolo receiving the first round bye, however it certainly isn’t the strongest quarter on paper. The other seed here is Jan Lennard Struff, who had a roller-coaster year where his best tennis matched it with most, but injury cruelled him at his best. He faces the returning Marin Cilicfirst up in what shapes as a fascinating contest, and one to not have any money on to be perfectly honest! Other names that catch my eye here are Mackenzie McDonald who can produce a solid level that can test all the players in this quarter, and it will be interesting to see what type of level that Roberto Bautista Agut can produce in the 2024 season.
Quarter 4
Another quirky section that is lead by Karen Khachanov and Lorenzo Musetti, but also features a player I am keeping an eye on in 2024 in Emil Ruusuvuori. He has all the talent in the world, yet hasn’t quite been able to find the consistency in his game more recently. Musetti snagged an upset win over Khachanov late in 2023, however it is worth noting that Khachanov came into that match significantly fatigued.
Overview
Backing Andrey Rublev in the outright market, and I will look to the bottom half to find a longer odds selection that appeals. In this instance, the player that stands out looks to be Mackenzie McDonald at the price, so just a small play there.
Also Backing:
Mackenzie McDonald to win quarter 3 at $6 at Bet365 (0.25 units)
Andrey Rublev to win tournament
$3.60 (0.5 Units)
