The UFC returns to the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada this weekend for a Fight Night card headlined by Paul Craig and Brendan Allen. In the co-main Michael Morales puts his undefeated record on the line against the ever-tough Jake Matthews and Chase Hooper takes on Jordan Leavitt in a fight that is sure to entertain. We take a look at my best bets on this weekend’s card below where there is plenty of value to be had, with three big underdog selections.
UFC Fight Night Betting Tips
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
Paul Craig cashed big for me as an underdog in his Middleweight debut and my stance from that preview still stands, he is a real problem at Middleweight. While his opponent Brendan Allen is surging towards the title, the bookies have once again priced the Scotsman on his Light Heavyweight resume.
On the feet these two are evenly matched, however, Craig definitely holds a power and strength advantage. People seem to forget he knocked out former Light Heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill in 2021. I have this as a 50/50 as I believe it will be largely contested on the mat and will rely on positioning. Allen is a great grappler from top control whereas from the bottom he is one-dimensional. I don’t see him stopping Craig unless he gets a rear naked choke after riding his back. Craig has more routes to victory and personally I believe he is the stronger grappler making the odds on offer worth taking. Back the Scotsman to make it 2-0 as a Middleweight.
Paul Craig to win
$3.50 (2 Units)
Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews
Michael Morales is one of the Welterweight division’s hottest prospects who is an impressive 15-0. He faces veteran Aussie Jack Matthews this weekend who is notoriously tough and implores a pressure style of fighting.
Morales is a ridiculous athlete but he is still far from a complete fighter. He got pieced up early by Max Griffin last time out which is deeply concerning. Matthews on the other hand, while inconsistent, is solid in all facets of the fight game. If he can put Morales on the back foot and use his wrestling to wear on him, it is his fight to win. He fought a very similar opponent full of hype in Andre Fialho last year and Matthews dismantled him. At the odds I believe it would be silly not to sprinkle a bit on the Aussie.
Jake Matthews to win
$3.20 (2 Units)
Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Ribas
At one point in time many touted Amanda Ribas to be the next Strawweight champion but she has since gone 3-3 in her last six, most recently being stopped by Maycee Barber. Her opponent Luana Pinheiro has flown under the radar but is now 3-0 in the UFC and comes into this fight off a win over Michelle Waterson.
This is a big test for Pinheiro but I liked what I saw of her in her win over Sam Hughes two fights back. Ribas has the grappling advantage but time and time again has showed she struggles to get the fight to the mat and is incredibly hittable, as well as a bit chinny for a Women’s Strawweight. As more and more is made on scoring fights based on damage rather than control, I am going to side with Pinheiro to register the biggest win of her career.
Luana Pinheiro to win
$3 (2 Units)
