2022 Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner Preview & Tips

It’s the race that stops the nation and the 2022 installment of the Melbourne Cup is set to be a great race. There are a number of international raiders with differing formlines to try line up while the top local hopes are all in very good form coming into the big race. The James Ferguson trained Deauville Legend is a clear cut favourite off the back of some impressive form in the UK. 

Many of the top local hopes will be contesting their first Melbourne Cup with the likes of Gold Trip, Monetefilia, Lunar Flare, Duais and Smokin Romans chasing the ultimate glory in their Cup debuts. 2019 winner Vow And Declare also lines up again as he aims to join elite company in winning multiple Melbourne Cups. 

There are four horses from the UK who make up the field with favourite Deauville Legend and second favourite Without A Fight making the trip over for Australia’s great race. Both Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal haven’t been seen in Australia yet either but have both joined Australian stables and we will see more of them from today onwards. 

As expected this race shapes up to be a huge spectacle and while the early market suggests Deauville Legend will be tough to beat, outside of him it is a wide open race and plenty of value to be found if you can jag the winner! Luckily for you Billy Bestford has stepped in to preview every runner in the big race including his suggested top four chances and other bets for the race at the bottom of the page. Check out his Melbourne Cup preview and racing tips below!

 

2022 Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner Preview

1. GOLD TRIP (14)

T: CIARON MAHER & DAVE EUSTACE | J: MARK ZAHRA

Gold Trip has been ticking along nicely this prep and has shown he is far superior with a bit of give in the track so he should get his wish on race day this year. He has only won one race in his career but his form leading into this is strong. He’s run numerous placings in strong Group 1's in France and more recently he was narrowly beaten in the Caulfield Cup having to concede plenty of weight to the eventual winner. For mine he is one of the top local chances and he only needs to handle the 3200m trip to be a winning chance. 

 

2. DUAIS (10)

T: EDWARD CUMMINGS | J: HUGH BOWMAN

Before this prep many had been tipping this horse to be our next staying superstar and while this Spring has been a bit of a disappointment, I get the feeling she is ready to run a huge race. The Caulfield Cup run was an eye catcher for mine and that was enough to convince me she is ready to go. Her chances will come down to how wet the track is, and if we aren’t on a 9 or a 10 then I think she’s a top 6 hope. Young trainer Ed Cummings will be looking to notch his first Cup win to go with his grandfather Bart’s 12. 

 

3. KNIGHTS ORDER (24)

T: GAI WATERHOUSE & ADRIAN BOTT | J: TIM CLARK

Here’s a horse who will be praying for as much rain as possible come Tuesday afternoon in Melbourne. You know what you are going to get with this Waterhouse-trained 8 year old. He is going to work early from the draw to lead them up and you can guarantee he will stay all day, having won twice from three attempts over this trip. He loves the slop and this being his second attempt at the race will mean he knows what it’s all about now. He’s going much better than this time last year and if the track is a bog then he will take some running down. 

 

4. MONTEFILIA (11)

T: DAVID PAYNE | J: JASON COLLETT

I think Montefilia is an extremely underrated horse, and it is easy to forget she has four Group 1 wins to her name. With that said, she can be costly to punters and she has her work cut out for her in the cup. With 55.5kg it’s not going to be easy for a horse who is a query at the trip but she comes off a good placing in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m and top 8 for her would be a good result. 

 

5. NUMERIAN (7)

T: ANNABEL NEASHAM | J: TOMMY BERRY

Numerian has proven he is a quality horse since arriving in Australia but I have serious doubts that he can run out a strong two miles in testing conditions. He looked to be peaking on his run towards the end of 2400m in the Caulfield Cup and best runs of his career have been over 1600-2200m. Happy to oppose him and think he finishes towards the back of the pack. 

 

6. WITHOUT A FIGHT (18)

T: SIMON & ED CRISFORD | J: WILLIAM BUICK

This 6-year old gelding arrives in Melbourne with this race a target for the stable since the start of the year. Has had perfect grounding for the race with two dominant wins over 2800m at York before a spell. He does have winning form on wet tracks but I think it safe to say he would prefer it dry. With that said he is yet to run a bad race in 17 career starts and will just need the gaps to appear at the right time. He’s going to run a strong two miles and is a massive chance to knock off the favourite with some luck. 

 

7. CAMORRA (17)

T: BEN & JD HAYES | J: BEN MELHAM

This horse comes into the race off the back of a 2800m win the Curragh Cup which has turned out to be a great form reference for the Melbourne Cup. Twilight Payment and Rekindling both won that race before coming to Australia and winning the big one. The knock on him is that his form outside of that has been pretty poor and he probably wants a dry track. Still think he is a top 10 chance. 

 

8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (9)

T: JAMES FERGUSON | J: KERRIN MCEVOY

It’s pretty rare to see such a lightly raced horse start a dominant favourite in a Melbourne Cup but that is what we have here. Deauville Legend has had only seven career starts and has got better with every race. He has the best form lines in the world around him, finishing two lengths off New London and then putting 3L on Secret State who are both top line Godolphin stayers and would be heavily favoured here. The knock on him is that as a European 3yo it is a big ask to carry 55kg and he has shown tendencies to race greenly at times. He’s also never seen a wet track and that has to be some concern if you want to dive in at the current quote. He’s clearly the one to beat on form, has the best turn of foot in the race and a jockey on board who has won this race three times. 

 

9. STOCKMAN (2)

T: JOSEPH PRIDE | J: SAM CLIPPERTON

Hard to think finishing 8th over 2000m a few days before your Melbourne Cup debut is an ideal lead in and I expect Stockman will find it extremely tough on Tuesday. However he did beat eventual Caulfield Cup winner Durston over 2600m two back. He’s going to enjoy the cut out of the ground but plain and simply he’s not good enough to measure up over 3200m against most of these in my opinion. 

 

10. VOW AND DECLARE (4)

T: DANNY O’BRIEN | J: BLAKE SHINN

It’s been three years since the popular win of Vow And Declare in this race and he will look to join elite company in becoming a multiple winner of Australia’s great race. He won this race in 2019 with just 52kg on his back and has been lumping big weights around ever since. He’s finally got some weight relief this year and has been racing the best we’ve seen since his cup triumph. He draws well to do no work in the run and I can see him finishing strongly to run in the top half of the field. 

 

11. YOUNG WERTHER (21)

T: DANNY O’BRIEN | J: DAMIAN LANE

While he’s placed three times at group one level he still does just have the one win to his name - a Geelong maiden over 1800m. With that alone it is hard to see how Young Werther can beat some of these top line stayers and I think he is going to making up the numbers at the back of the pack. 

 

12. HOO YA MAL (15)

T: GAI WATERHOUSE & ADRIAN BOTT | J: CRAIG WILLIAMS

Hoo Ya Mal was bought by the stable with this race in mind and he is a tough horse to assess. He has a 2nd in the Epsom Derby but then failed in the St Leger with every chance in the run. Has form around very good horses and crossed the line with Deauville Legend last time they met but I’m not sure he will run a strong 3200m. However class could take him a long way and he can finish top 10. 

 

13. SERPENTINE (23)

T: ROBERT HICKMOTT | J: JOHN ALLEN

Regained some of his best form on Saturday in the 2500m Archer Stakes when finishing 2nd. That was his best run for a long while and will be adopting similar front-running tactics again on Tuesday. He wore blinkers for the first time on Saturday and that looked to sharpen him right up. Won the Epsom Derby in 2020 and could run a cheeky race at a price. 

 

14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR

(13) T: PHILLIP STOKES | J: DANIEL MOOR

A first Melbourne Cup runner for Phillip Stokes and Daqiansweet Junior will be one of the more suited horses if we get onto a bog track. He ran extremely well over this trip in the Sydney Cup on a heavy 10 and the stable are always very good at having their horses prepared for their grand final. His other run over 3200m was a dominant win in the Adelaide Cup. Down on 53kg will see him every chance to run well. 

 

15. GRAND PROMENADE (1)

T: CIARON MAHER & DAVE EUSTACE | J: HARRY COFFEY

This horse was flying this time last year and ran a very respectable 6th in the 2021 edition of this race. His chances will solely come down to the conditions on the day because he has shown he doesn’t handle wet ground well at all. Loves Flemington and if the rain happens to miss then he could be a good roughie. 

 

16. ARAPAHO (19)

T: BJORN BAKER | J: RACHEL KING

Continues to improve with racing this prep and has been a revelation for the stable since stepping him up to staying trips. His efforts in the St Leger and the Metrop were good and he is one horse who will relish a wet track. If all things go well he could finish midfield but it might be a year too early for him to show his best in this race. 

 

17. EMISSARY (3)

T: MIKE MORONEY | J: PATRICK MOLONEY

Comes into this off an awesome win in the Geelong Cup when stepping up to 2400m and letting down strong off a hot speed. The key for him, like many in the race will come down to the track rating. He simply doesn’t get through wet ground and for that reason I can’t make a case for him. 

 

18. LUNAR FLARE (12) - Scratched

T: GRAHAME BEGG | J: MICHAEL DEE

I think Lunar Flare is one of the better local chances and has been ticking along nicely this prep in what looks an ideal preparation for a Melbourne Cup tilt. Ran on strongly at first two runs over shorter trips then was impressive when rising to 2500m in the Bart Cummings. Her dad Fiorente won this race in 2013 and I think she gets a great setup to follow in his footsteps. Down in the weights and drawn well can see her finish strongly at the end of two miles. 

Edit: Lunar Flare has been scratched on the morning of the Cup after a vet examination found her lame in her off fore leg.

 

19. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (16)

T: CIARON MAHER & DAVE EUSTACE | J: JAMIE KAH

Smokin Romans looks a decent value chance coming off his Caulfield Cup failure when started a well-supported favourite. Not much went right there and he was stuck in the worst part of the track when trying hard to finish 7th. Think you have to trust the stable to have him ready to run the trip and Jamie Kah will be keen to atone for the Caulfield Cup run. Live chance to run top 5. 

 

20. TRALEE ROSE (22)

T: SYMON WILDE | J: DEAN YENDALL

This time last year Tralee Rose was expected to shake up the Australian staying ranks and was progressing along nicely. Unfortunately things haven’t gone to plan for this prep and she hasn’t shown enough to think she can improve on her 9th from last year.

 

21. POINT NEPEAN (20) - Scratched

T: ROBERT HICKMOTT | J: WAYNE LORDAN

Another horse who had promised so much as an emerging stayer and hasn’t delivered completely on that potential. Imported from the UK he won three on the bounce including the Andrew Ramsden which booked his ticket into this race. Been very poor this prep and it is hard to see how he can turn it around. 

Edit: Point Nepean has now been scratched following an elevated temperature. 

 

22. HIGH EMOCEAN (8)

T: CIARON MAHER & DAVE EUSTACE | J: TEO NUGENT

On ratings alone, High Emocean looks to have a task set for herself but she is a horse who will try her heart out. The stable are masters at preparing their horses and she comes into this off a tough win in the Bendigo Cup. Wet track suits but this might be a bridge too far. 

 

23. INTERPRETATION (6)

T: CIARON MAHER & DAVE EUSTACE | J: CRAIG NEWITT

There always seems to be plenty of tips around for this horse when it runs and has had a bit of hype around him since arriving in Australia. Biggest positive for him is finally getting some weight relief dropping right down to 50kg. He’s won over 2800m back in Ireland and I honestly think he is a horse who can run a drum at a massive price. 

 

24. REALM OF FLOWERS (5) 

T: ANTHONY & SAM FREEDMAN | J: DAMIEN THORNTON

Sneaks into the field this year following her set back last year when missing this race through injury. I think she has had a great grounding this prep building towards this race and 4th up she will be hard fit and can run very well. She was enormous in the Metrop last start and that looks a perfect lead up run. From a good gate I think she sees every chance in the run and can finish top 6. 

 

Melbourne Cup Prediction

1st Deauville Legend

2nd Without A Fight

3rd Knights Order 

4th Smokin Romans

5th Realm Of Flowers

6th Lunar Flare - SCRATCHED

 

Melbourne Cup Betting Tips

 

Melbourne Cup Top 5 Bets

Lunar Flare - $3.00 at TAB - SCRATCHED

Knights Order - $4.20 at TAB

Without a Fight - $2.30 at TAB

 

Melbourne Cup Top 10 Bets

Daquainsweet Junior - $3.20 at TAB

Camorra - $3.00 at TAB