Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, July 17th.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Soft 6 and the rail in the 5m position.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 17th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (1) Front Sight
Best Value Bet: Race 3 - (1) Clevanicc
(1) Splendid Surprise was only narrowly defeated on debut on the Kensington track, which followed up two good trials. That effort should see her very competitive in today's small field. The query is she has to lump top weight of 59kg and with the way the rest of the field is weighted, she's got a fair task ahead of her. (3) Rotator has been very costly all preparation and if she wins this, she'll be doing so without my money. She certainly gets her chance again today but she's been disappointing recently and at $2.10 you can leave me out.
(1) Splendid Surprise
$2.80
This is one of the harder races of the day. I think $7.00 is a decent each way price about (4) Academy, which is on debut for Mark Newnham. He produced two nice trials back in March but wasn't seen again since trialling again here at Warwick Farm on June 21st, so he may have had an issue. He gets blinkers on for race day and I'd expect a strong performance here. (8) Royal Marine was only fair on debut but might improve with the firmer track today. He looked to struggle to get going on the Heavy 10 but he hit the line nicely late. He'd trialled well leading into his debut and with Blake Shinn on from the good draw, he can go close.
(7) Weekend Affair is a bit of a non-winner with just three victories from 31 starts, but I think he's come back in good order this prep, he's just had no luck at all. I think he's much better drawn in barrier 8 today as opposed to barrier 1 which he's started from in his past two starts. He tends to get back in his races so drawing inside barriers isn't ideal. From 8, he should be able to get going early and have a trouble-free run in the straight, without getting cluttered up. (1) Clevanicc might be able to run a good race at each way odds. He resumed in a BM78 at Rosehill on Heavy ground but drops back to a BM70 in midweek grade today. He has five top-two finishes from six starts on soft ground, so conditions will suit him, and his record at the distance is good. The claim for Sam Clenton is very useful and he should be an improver.
Value: (1) Clevanicc $8.50
(1) Front Sight should be too good here. He had no luck at all first up when finishing 2nd to Embracer, despite being caught four-wide without cover throughout the race. He then went to Wyong last start and won easily as the $1.14 favourite. Drawn the inside here, I'd expect him to kick up and lead and he should take plenty of beating. (6) Wimlah looks the value at $8.50. She ran 2nd to Haut Brion Her first up at Canterbury and that's not bad form at all. She was well supported on that day and Blake Shinn takes the ride from a good draw today, so she can't be discounted.
Tricky race for the stayers over 2200m. (5) Terwilliker drops heavily in grade today after being beaten 3.8L in the Stayer's Cup at Rosehill last start. Back to a midweek BM70 so he will find this significantly easier. Two starts ago he ran 2nd over 2400m at Randwick in a BM78, and before that he bolted in by 6L at Gosford. The only query I have today is dropping back from 3200m to 2200m. (13) Bedivere is the biggest danger. He won first up at Taree and then had no luck second up at Canterbury, where he was only clear very late in the race and only beaten 2.1L. Last start he was caught three-wide without cover all race at Gosford and still managed to finish 2nd. I think the horse is going well so with a big jockey change today, he looms as a winning chance. Happy to back both.
Also backing: (13) Bedivere $4.80
Should be a good contest between (5) Think Free and (7) Handspun. Both come out of a race at Rosehill behind Call Me Royal, where Think Free was beaten 1L and Handspun was beaten 2.8L (however Handspun did run the best last 800m of the race). I'll stick with Think Free here based on the fact he is undefeated from three starts on soft ground, whereas Handspun is yet to place from three starts on rain-affected tracks. The latter does get a big jockey change today with Bowman going on, but he'll need some luck and a good ride from barrier 2 given he'll be settling near the back of the field.
(8) Lifetime Quest looks one of the better bets on the card at $3.20 here. He'll have to overcome a wide gate but if Blake Shinn can slot him in somewhere in the running line, he'll be hard to hold out late. He's never finished out of the top two in his five career starts but four of those have been runner-up finishes. One of those was first up at Newcastle when he was caught four-wide without cover all race as the well-backed favourite, and still only went down by a nose. Big jockey change today and I'm expecting he'll be very tough to beat. I'll be saving on (4) I Am Capitan who was only narrowly beaten first up in a Highway Handicap. That form should be good enough to see him be competitive in midweek grade.
