Now that the Perth Racing Carnival is over we are back to Sydney and Warwick Farm is the metro meeting this weekend with a 9 race card!
The track is currently a Heavy 8 and with a bit of drizzle around I don't expect that to improve too significantly.
We have betting tips for all 9 races below.
Warwick Farm Racing Tips - January 7th
Race 1
SINGLE BULLET looks incredibly hard to beat here after flashing home to run 2nd to Madeenaty in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on debut. The only thing that will beat him here is the Heavy track. At $1.65 he isn't at a very backable price but I wouldn't be betting on anything else to beat him either.
Tip: Single Bullet
Race 2
Tricky little race that does look between the top 3 in the race. Redouble has wet track form on his side and resumed with a good run behind the progressive Raiment at Canterbury so if he's improved off that he should be hard to beat. France gets the blinkers on for the first time after running 2nd last start under 60kgs at Rosehill. No surprises to see him in the finish, but I'm with his stablemate FIRST APPROVAL HERE who ran 2nd in a field of 4 first up from a spell. He progressed nicely in his first preparation and scored a victory over a very talented horse by the name of Chaussure to win his maiden, so I think if he brings his best today he will be the one to beat in this. Has wet track form on the board, gets Kerrin McEvoy from barrier 1 and there's still $3.40 available at Bet365.
Tip: First Approval (Best Bet)
Race 3
I'm not a huge fan of the jockey on board but it's hard to go past HARLEM LADY here with just 58.5kg. She put in a good run last start to finish 2nd in tougher grade so the drop back to BM78 grade 3rd up from a spell should see her hard to beat. Her wet track form is good and from barrier 4 there really shouldn't be any excuses. Magicaz is the logical danger but definitely prefers a firmer surface than what he's bound to get. In saying that, he has won on a Soft 6 previously and is undefeated at this track and distance.
Tip: Harlem Lady
Race 4
I would have been keen on Pumpkin Pie here but her trainer has openly said she's not wound up for this and thinks there may be a few too sharp for her over 1100m. She could still win though as she is clearly the best horse in the race with form behind Eckstein who is bound for Magic Millions Day after three straight wins, including a Listed race last start. For that reason I'm pretty keen to play YASNAT here at good odds. She comes up around the $7 mark and the key here is she's won all three starts on Heavy ground. First up last prep she absolutely bolted in to win a Canberra maiden before going on to win two more, including a BM70 at Moonee Valley. With Deanne Panya's claim she gets in with 55kg so I'd expect her to lead and be tough to run down on the wet track.
Tip: Yasnat
Race 5
Just four runners left in a race where the top weight is 54.5kg and the lowest is 50.5kg. Happy to back IMPOSING LASS here 2nd up from a spell, up to 1400m and down to 50.5kg after the claim. She carried 60kg first up so the 9.5kg weight drop is significant, and while she was just plain on the Heavy track last start, she has won on Soft ground before. The big danger is obviously the odds on favourite Girl Sunday who is flying this prep.
Tip: Imposing Lass
Race 6
I've got this clearly between KINGSGUARD and ROCK MYLADY and I'm happy to go hard here. Kingsguard has cost punters plenty but he finally broke his maiden two starts ago and looks to have gone on with the job after another good win at this track last start. The blinkers have made a real difference and despite rising in grade, he drops significantly in weight. From the good draw he will get his chance and he has a great record on both this track and on soft ground. Rock Mylady has had absolutely no luck in either of his two starts so far this prep. He arguably should have won last start and he now gets up to an ideal distance at his third run back from a spell. He's won on both Soft and Heavy ground but hasn't on on Good ground so that suggests any rain will really enhance his chances. McEvoy takes over from the apprentice today and I really like his chances here. I'll be backing Rock Mylady at $6 but definitely having something on Kingsguard to cover any losses at the very least.
Tip: Rock Mylady
Race 7
Two that interest me here. MR MANHATTAN can bounce back to the winners circle after a fairly luckless run last start. Previous to that he put together two wins to start the campaign and he's undefeated at this track and distance. He's got a very solid record on wet ground and he should be fresh coming into this off a 35 day break with only a quiet trial in between. The danger I see is PLATEAU GOLD who resumed at Coffs Harbour over 800m and led all the way with 63.5kg on his back. Drops to 54.5kg here and won a trial by more than 7 lengths leading into this. Expect him to go well. Sundance will get his chance, while I'm happy to take on both Oxford Poet - who has never run over 1000m before - and Dal Cielo who has struggled on Soft ground previously.
Tip: Mr Manhattan
Race 8
Think this race represents terrific value and very keen to have a bet on a few. BUTTERBOOM looks a solid each way bet at $12 after two good runs leading into this. Two starts back he ran 2nd to Kinsachi which then went on to win a Listed race last start. Ran 3rd last start after settling last and while he will have to go back from the wide gate here, he does excel on wet ground and loves this track so if the track is still wet, he can run a big race. INVINZABEEL returns from a spell here and although 1200m is short of his best, I think he's really turning into a decent horse and if he's held some residual fitness he might just be too good. He's won on wet ground before and gets Bowman booked from barrier 5 so I think he's a realistic winning chance at the $6.50 mark. The other winning hope is Ziggy Willie who lumps 61kg but is in outstanding form and has no problem with the wet ground. I'll be backing Invinzabeel and Butterboom with a saver on Ziggy.
Tip: Invinzabeel / Butterboom EW (Best Value)
Race 9
Tricky race this one and not one I'm desperate to bet into but worth having something on both of Chris Waller's runners here, HOGMANAY and SONIC SWISH. Hogmanay has won two on the bounce at Rosehill and trialled well leading into this. Gets in well after the claim and if he handles the wet he should be in the finish again. Sonic Swish charged home two starts ago at Rosehill and then was only beaten a length last start. Has performed well on Soft ground before and Bowman jumps aboard today. Will have something on both to win at $5.50 and $6.50 but not entirely confident here.
Tip: Hogmanay / Sonic Swish
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
