2024 AFL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Richmond vs St Kilda
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, April 7th, Norwood Oval
After a statement win over Collingwood in Round 2, St Kilda followed up with a frustrating performance in a four point loss to Essendon. The Saints led from the opening bounce right up until the final six minutes of the game, when Jake Stringer put the Bombers ahead. St Kilda kicked 9.13 and failed to put the Bombers away in the second quarter when they had Essendon on the ropes when they led by 22 points. The Saints kicked 9.13, but were overrun by the Bombers in the fourth quarter.
The alarming stats for the Saints was their work at stoppages in the second half, losing the clearance count 23-10, with a 9-1 difference in centre bounces. Over the four quarters St Kilda lost the contested possessions -13, clearances -5, tackles -5 and inside 50’s -2. Ross Lyon will need a lift from his midfield if the Saints are to play finals footy in 2024.
Marcus Windhager is out this week through suspension, while Max King returns after missing Round 3 through suspension. Lance Collard, Hugo Garcia and Tom Campbell are also amongst the inclusions in the extended squad for St Kilda.
Richmond caused the biggest upset of the season, knocking off the previously unbeaten Swans to record their first win of the Adam Yze era. It was a gritty win by the Tigers who hung on desperately against one of the best sides in the competition.
The positivity hasn’t carried into this week however, with chaos for the Tigers at the selection table. Tom Lynch (hamstring), Liam Baker (suspension) and Noah Balta (knee) out for the clash against St Kilda. In positive news Dustin Martin and Jack Graham return, while Jacob Koschitzke, Sam Naismith, Hugo Ralphsmith and Kane McAuliffe selected in the extended squad.
The losses of Lynch (10-12 weeks) and Balta (4-6 weeks), are extremely painful losing their best two forwards for an already undermanned Tigers side. Richmond are already without Dylan Grimes, Dion Prestia, Jacob Hopper and Josh Gibcus from their best 22 in a side that was expected to feature towards the bottom 4 even at full strength.
With the absences of Lynch and Balta, it’s difficult to see Richmond kicking a winning score against a St Kilda outfit that has been one of the best defensive sides since Ross Lyon took over. St Kilda were the number one ranked defence in the competition last season conceding only 71 points per game, this season the Saints have conceded only 226 points, the fourth fewest in the league.
Match Prediction: The Saints would have come into this match as favourites if the Tigers were at full strength, but given their depleted side it swings things substantially in favour of St Kilda. Even with Richmond’s key absences up forward and down back, their struggling midfield is arguably the area where St Kilda can gain the biggest advantage in this clash. Richmond ranks 18th for clearances, 17th for disposals, 14th for contested possessions, and 13th for inside 50’s.
If the Saints dominate the midfield battle, it’s going to be a long afternoon for an undermanned Richmond defence, with Nathan Broad and Tom Brown matching up against Max King and Tim Membrey. If St Kilda can get consistent supply inside 50 and win the territory battle, Richmond won’t have a defence capable of holding up defensively or generating scores from the back half. St Kilda have won two of their last three games against St Kilda by margins of 26 and 33 points, and the Saints will pick up another comfortable victory against the Tigers.
St Kilda -21.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Tim Tarranto 25+ Disposals: After a quiet opening fortnight, Tim Tarranto has rediscovered his 2023 form, producing 26 and 35 disposal performances from his last two games. His 35 disposals was the most of any player on the ground last week, and he averaged 31 disposals across his two games against the Saints last year.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 25+ Disposals: Wanganeen-Milera had a quiet game by his standards last week, picking up 20 disposals against Essendon. Wanganeen-Milera recorded 25 and 32 disposals from his first two games of this season, and recorded 27 disposals when he last faced off against the Tigers. Expect a bounce back from the young star.
Riley Bonner 20+ Disposals: Much has been made of his efficiency but one thing is undeniable, Riley Bonner knows how to find the footy. Bonner is averaging 25 disposals per game in his first year at St Kilda, including a 32 disposal performance against Essendon last week.
Jack Higgins Anytime Goalscorer: Higgins has been red hot across the last fortnight, with 3 and 4 goal performances across his last two games. Higgins has an excellent track record against Richmond, having kicked a goal in all five games against his former side since moving to St Kilda.
SGM Odds: $3.10 at BoomBet
