South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Thursday, 7.50pm (AEST)
The Rabbitohs appeared set for an easy victory after 26 minutes; they were up 20-nil and were gathering momentum and outclassing the Tigers at every turn. Two late tries to their opponents prior to HT narrowed the margin and the Tigers were given hope from that point onwards. In the end, the Rabbitohs did just enough to win 26-24. They probably didn’t do themselves any favours with a 75% completion rate and 10 errors. There were some positives though; they made 709pcm, 5 linebreaks and just 19 missed tackles. The flow that had previously been a strong feature of their play went missing in the second half.
Things were not much better for the Bulldogs, as they went down 32-22 to the Sea Eagles. An early try gave a sense of hope, as did a strong opening 30 minutes. Once their opponents gathered momentum however, the game was all but over. A late fightback only added some respectability to the final score. While they completed at 80% with 52% possession, the statistics accurately resembled the final score line. They had just 1 linebreak, 38 missed tackles and 11 total errors. As they sit at the bottom of the ladder, this squads resilience is going to be tested in the final two games of an already challenging season.
The Stats
The Rabbitohs will look to overpower the Bulldogs in the middle; they average 1,740.2m per game (6th), 599.2pcm (6th) and 29.6 tackles breaks (7th). Unfortunately, the Bulldogs are much worse in all areas; 1,579.5m (13th), 512.4pcm (14th) and 18.8 tackle breaks (16th). This may indicate why the Rabbitohs average 27.2 points (4th) compared with the Bulldogs 14.2 (15th). On the other side of the ball, the Rabbitohs are also superior. They average just 25 missed tackles per week (1st), with the Bulldogs missing 32.2 (14th) per game. When you combine the average amount of points scored and conceded, the Rabbitohs have a 17-point advantage. The Bulldogs have the overall edge over the Rabbitohs (22 wins in 39 meetings with 1 draw); yet, the Rabbitohs have won 6 out of the 8 most recent meetings between the two sides (dating back to Round 26, 2016). The average winning margin in those victories sits at 13 points, with the two wins by 16-points and one by 18-points.
Verdict
The Rabbitohs are strong favourites to win this game and it is no surprise to see that. The Bulldogs efforts so far this season have left a lot to be desired. Missing key players only increases the difficulty of the task for the visitors. The decision then shifts towards ‘how much’ the Rabbitohs can win by. The statistics mentioned above suggest a dominant victory to the Rabbitohs. The points difference between the two sides across the year brings the line into play; however, the Rabbitohs failed to cover the line last week and were guilty of switching off when further pressure should’ve been applied to completely shut out their opponents. Considering home ground advantage in Week 1 of the Finals or even a spot in the Top 4 could be decided by points difference, the Rabbitohs may want to take the opportunity to accumulate a large tally against the Bulldogs. Sure, the Bulldogs are a team that will be in the for the fight and have proven this at several stages in 2020, but the class of the Rabbitohs should eventually be too much.
