Australia vs India Boxing Day Test Preview
When: December 26th – 30th
Where: MCG, Melbourne
The Australians have taken a stranglehold on this series after Mitchell Johnson turned the game with both bat and ball to crush the Indians on the 4th day at the Gabba. For periods early in the match it looked like some solid Indian batting, along with a bit of bad weather, might enable them to survive for a draw, but in the end, they never got close.
While the match result was good for us, we were desperately unlucky with a couple of our other plays. David Warner was cruising before a false stroke saw the Aussie openers fall just nine runs short of India’s mark. Also the stupid run out of Steve Smith with just six runs left to win was enough to bring a tear to the eye. Finally we thought Mitchell Johnson was the match winner, despite the numbers pointing to Steve Smith. Johnson was the difference so I think we were unlucky again with the Man of the Match award.
As it was, we took a -3.05 unit loss on the match, when if those things went our way it would’ve been a massive 11.02 unit win.
Anyway it puts the Aussies 2-0 up with two to play, so we’re well on track for our 4-0 result, or you’d have to suggest 3-0 at worst if there’s some defiant batting or bad weather. It’s really hard to see the Indians taking 20 wickets to get a win, so we’re in really good shape with our futures bets.
We’re also in good shape with our leading run scorer bets with Steve Smith dominating with 375 runs from two Test. Next best is India’s Murali Vijay with 323 runs, while our other pick is Dave Warner with 282 runs. It looks like Warner will play in Melbourne but his thumb injury must be a concern. Virat Kohli is the only other player likely to be a chance with 276 runs.
Looking ahead to the 3rd Test and once again the Australians should be dominant. They will be strengthened in the bowling department with Ryan Harris coming in for an out-of-sorts Mitchell Starc while Josh Hazelwood will hold his place after an impressive debut. Mitchell Marsh is out with a hamstring injury with Joe Burns set to debut. He’s a talented batsmen but we’ll have to see if he’s up to this level and also where he might bat in the order. There are talks that he may come in at number three with Shane Watson to drop down to number six.
There were also a few other concerns with Shaun Marsh and Shane Watson both getting struck in the nets. Watson in particular was shaken up and will face a concussion test before getting the green light to play.
For India, they have struggled to get wickets so they will be hoping that Bhuvneshwar Kumar has recovered from an ankle injury in time to play. With limited chances to practice on the ankle, it will be a wait and see if he is picked, probably to replace Varun Aaron. Rohit Sharma’s spot at number six might also be under threat after some mediocre performances.
Weather: The weather looks fine for the five days. A small chance of light showers on Day 1 and Day 5 but they might not even affect play at all.
Verdict: Of the last ten matches at the MCG, there has been a result every time Australia winning eight and the visitors two, with no draws. There have also been quite a number of low scoring matches. That suggests a result is highly likely, as long as Australia’s young batting line up can stay tough. There’s no doubt the Aussies will get ten wickets, but can someone else rise to the challenge to support Warner and Smith with the bat?
Betting
Rolling Profit/Loss: +3.43 units
The Australians are a very warm $1.57 for this match with the best current price offered at Luxbet. That might be a fair price but it’s too short to get our money this time around, especially with the strong futures we have in play. If you want to back the Aussies, that's understandable. Or you could wait for an opportune moment mid-match where the odds are a bit juicier using the betting exchange at Betfair.
The price on some of our other preferred bets have also come in, so we’ll need to look elsewhere for value.
Looking at the leading run scorers market and the odds have swung dramatically towards Steve Smith and David Warner, and understandably so. They have been incredible. However Warner is under an injury cloud, and Smith, well, surely the bubble bursts at some point right?
With one debutant in the side, and the inconsistent Shaun Marsh in the line up, we think that taking on Smith in this market offers a little bit of value.
Shane Watson has been struggling and he did cop a blow to the head during the week, but he actually has the best average at the MCG of any batsman in the last five years at 89.6. If he does get pushed down to number six, that might in fact relax his mind set, and 2-0 up in the series, there shouldn't be a heap of pressure which is usually where Watto (unfortunately) does his best work. Perhaps this is his time to shine.
The other batsman we like the look of is Chris Rogers. He was probably one more poor performance away from the axe, but Rogers looked good in his two fifties at the Gabba, and he scored a strong hundred and a fifty in the Ashes MCG Test last year. His experience will count for a lot in this young batting line up.
We’re going to make a two-horse play in this market. You can either take the better price at Centrebet, or the reduced price with the safety net of the promos listed below at Sportsbet or Luxbet.
We're also usually pretty keen on the Aussies to make an early breakthrough but the Indian openers have proven their worth. The MCG shouldn't be as bouncy or green as the Gabba, which they handled fine, so we think the line for their opening partnership is a little low and worth a play.
Best Bets
Shane Watson most runs 1st Innings Australia @$6.50 at Centrebet (1 unit)
Chris Rogers most runs 1st Innings Australia @$6.50 at Centrebet (1 unit)
Other Bets
India Fall of 1st Wicket (1st Innings) Over 23.5 @$1.90 at Centrebet (1 unit)
