Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, May 29th.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 5m.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 29th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (3) Front Sight
Best Value Bet: Race 6 - (6) Miss Liffey
Race 1 - 3YO Maiden Hcp 1400m
Small field of six to go around here and I'll be backing the favourite in the Godolphin colours at the top of the weights, (1) Sedgemoor. James McDonald takes over the reigns today, which is a good sign with two Waller runners in the race, and the gelding appears hard to beat on what we've seen from two career starts. He debuted back in July last year, when beaten a nose at Kembla Grange. He then resumed from 41 weeks off with another nose defeat at Canterbury, after being caught three-wide on the speed throughout the race. He's sure to have come on from that and with JMac taking over today, looks hard to beat. He could even slide across to lead from the wide barrier.
Race 2 - 2YO Maiden Hcp 1200m
Bit of a nightmare race to bet in here with a field of 14 two-year-olds going around, nine of which are on debut. Not nvesting heavily here but (6) Mercury goes on top. This colt started $7.00 on debut in a Listed race at Flemington back in October. He was well-beaten a pulled up lame after the race so was spelled immediately. He's returned with two trials and the most recent of those was particularly eye-catching. He jumped out first but was snagged back to second last before slicing his way through the field and running all up their backsides in the straight. He had plenty to offer and Godolphin have dominated the two-year-old ranks all season. Drawn well, JMac on, hard to beat. The winner of that trial was (4) Hellbenders and that was his second trial win since returning to work this time in. He's yet to debut but he'd had two trials back in December/January before they put him out for a spell. He's won both trials since returning and both have been here at Warwick Farm, which is his home track. He'll go forward and could give a sight at $17.
Value: (4) Hellbenders $17
Race 3 - 3YO Maiden Plate 1200m
I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the price about (2) Embracer. $1.65??? Sure, he's a chance but $1.65? He was a beaten favourite on debut at Canterbury and then went down as the $1.09 favourite at Wyong last start. He was beaten 4.5L, pulled up 2/5 lame and was slow to recover. You'd have to be brave taking $1.65 about him again today. (3) Front Sight isn't much longer in the market at $2.20 but he goes on top for me. I'd rather take that price about him than $1.65 for Embracer. Front Sight returns from a 15-week spell, having been placed in his first two career starts at Canterbury, beaten 0.2L and 0.5L. He won his latest trial and JMac takes the ride first up today. (10) Set Goals ran 3rd on debut here at the Farm in a decent form race. He then resumed and started a $3.10 chance at Wyong, but finished last and pulled up with a slow recovery. He could be thrown into exotics at $41.
Race 4 - BM74 Hcp 1600m
Nice, competitive race. Once again the favourite appears hard to beat and that's (6) High Shine, who is aiming to make it four straight wins and three from three in Australia. She won her Australian debut over 1300m here at the Farm and followed it with another nice win at Scone last time out. Straight up to the mile here, and her only previous start at the distance was a 7.75L romp in New Zealand to break her maiden. She has 59.5kg to carry today and does draw a touch awkwardly in barrier 10, but JMac is on board and she clearly looks the one to beat again. With that said, I'm keen to take the each way odds about (1) Destiny's Own. He stepped up to 1400m at this track last start and sat wide without cover but was still too good. Gets another useful claim today and a good draw, so up to the mile third up from a spell should see him competitive again. (2) Kurnel Jaxon is a blowout chance at $26. He didn't get any luck first up at Rosehill when he was held up the last 150m. He's won previously when second up and he holds a good record at this track and distance. Would have preferred him to have been third up here but he might still run a cheeky race. (7) Primitivo finally won another race last start but it took all of JMac's power to get his head in front. He's replaced by Sam Clipperton today so I'll let him go around again. (13) Yulong Emperor is an interesting runner and I'd be watching the market. He failed badly at his only Australian start, but has since been gelded and gets the blinkers on for the first time today.
Value: (2) Kurnel Jaxon $26
Race 5 - 3YO BM68 Hcp 1600m
Another capacity field of 14 going around. Finally there is a favourite I'm willing to take on. (14) Statuesquely comes up $3.50 after a 3L maiden win at Kembla Grange. On debut, he was beaten 3L at Newcastle. I think he's well and truly short enough here given he only won a Kembla Grange maiden against five other horses last start. He comes into a pretty decent midweek metropolitan race here. Sure, he's still got plenty of improvement left in him and is still very unexposed with just two starts under his belt, but he's under the odds for mine. (1) Bergen is undefeated from three starts and broke through at midweek metro last start. He rises 3kg in the weights today and lumps 60kg on his back so I'll be taking him on too. (2) Charretera was beaten a length last start over 1400m here and prior to that won over 1200m at Randwick. He's drawn well again and finds another race he can be very competitive in. (3) Total Power was backed off the map two starts ago at Newcastle but could only manage 4th. He then came out and ran 3rd, beaten 1.5L in the 3YO Guineas at Scone, behind the likes of Wild Planet and Military Zone. We saw Military Zone win a Group 3 in Brisbane on the weekend, so that appears pretty strong form for another midweek race. (7) Plenty has run 2nd in both starts back from a spell. He was caught racing keenly wide without cover last start. If this is run a bit truer, it will probably help him settle. I think he's a legitimate winning chance again today, although notably James McDonald jumps off in order to ride (4) Come Along. Charretera, Total Power and Plenty the three I'm most interested in backing.
Race 6 - BM70 Hcp 1100m
I think there is one horse way, way, way over the odds here and that's (6) Miss Liffey at $81. This mare finished last first up at Wagga and was beaten 14.5L but don't take any notice of that. She was trapped three-wide without cover on speed and dropped out after a tough run. Her second up record is lethal - she's had four wins and a 2nd from five starts. If you look at last preparation, she was also caught wide first up and dropped out to finish last, beaten close enough to 11L. She then came out second up and won with 62kg, with a similar break between her first and second run to what she comes into today's race with. She's drawn awkwardly in barrier 11 but I think $81 is a crazy price for a horse that has a second up record like hers, especially given the similarities between this prep and last prep. The other at good odds is (13) Bright Idea at $23. She ran 2nd at Queanbeyan first up, but she's undefeated second up and gets blinkers applied for the first time today. It's an open race but I'll have something small on both of those.
Also backing: (13) Bright Idea $23
Race 7 - BM70 Hcp 1300m
(11) Love My Cashews can continue its winning run here on the back of a 4L demolition job at Kembla last start. This is a different kettle of fish compared to the two races she's won to date, but she couldn't have been more impressive last start and she's drawn to get her chance again today. (15) The Party Girl has trialled relatively well leading into her debut for the new stable today. Typically she needs her first up run but she gets blinkers applied for the first time and might just show up fresh here. (5) El Mo is another that gets the blinkers on for the first time today, while (1) Groundbreak is more than capable of being competitive in a race of this nature. (10) England next best.
(11) Love My Cashews
$4.80
