Last week was another marginally successful AFL punting week, but we will really be looking to have a much bigger weekend this time around as we give you more of our best AFL betting tips. It’s that time of the year when players start getting injured, clubs start making changes and the real things start separating themselves from the pretenders. Be sure to read on and check out our 2014 AFL Round 17 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 17 Preview
Round 17 of the 2014 AFL season kicks off with the Friday night blockbuster – Adelaide Crows Vs. Hawthorn Hawks. There is sure to be another massive crowd at Adelaide Oval as the Crows look to bag this ‘must win’ game and slip into the Top 8. It’s not going to be easy for the Crows though as the champion Hawks look to bounce back after a disappointing loss against the Roos last week. Sewell and Lake are out for the Hawks, with Lake being suspended in the well-documented choking incident last week. Hawks will be happy to have tall Ben McEvoy back, especially against Adelaide who have one of the best in-form rucks in the competition in Sauce Jacobs. The Crows will be happy to have their stars Patrick Dangerfield and Scott Thompson in after injury scares and will be firing on all cylinders trying to make it into the 8. Really tough game to bet. Hard to write off the Hawks in any game, but hard to know just how badly the Crows will want it in front of a home crowd. Will be a tight game.
The first game on Saturday during Round 17 is Melbourne Demons Vs. Geelong Cats. It’s at the MCG and a few showers are expected. The Demons were poor against the Dockers last weekend, while the Cats did what they had to do to get the points against the Bulldogs in a similar wet day to what we expect on Saturday. Geelong have won the last nine by an average of 71 points against the Demons and while the improved Melbourne team will be more competitive than that, expecting a solid Geelong win. If the weather definitively proves to be wet, load up on Geelong by 1-39 as it looks great value with the line being six goals.
Will Nth Melbourne Kangroos Vs. St Kilda Saints be as cut and dry as we think? Considering the Roos beat the Haws last week, you would think they will crush the bottom of the ladder Saints. But who knows which Roos team you are going to get. The Roos should win easily, but with a massive line and the inconsistency of the Roos, we will be staying away from this one.
Western Bulldogs Vs. Gold Coast Suns is one of the more interesting games of the round. Everyone is dying to see how the Suns go without Gary Ablett. Once he was off in the last quarter against the Pies last week, the Suns really stood up and showed what they can do. However, that was in the thick of the battle and preparing for a game without Gary and starting from scratch without him is a whole different story. This a Bulldogs home game despite being up in Queensland (Cazaly Stadium, Cairns), so we will give the advantage to the Suns there. The Bulldogs were solid against the Cats last week. Think most punters are giving the Suns the edge here, but we are in uncharted territory. If the Dogs can produce the football they played against the Cats, they will be competitive.
The Brisbane Lions Vs. West Coast Eagles game is a pretty boring Saturday night game. Fans of the Eagles would love to argue that their finals chances are alive, and while mathematically correct, realistically they are a very slim chance. Eagles fans can take solace in the fact they will smash the Lions here. The Lions being without Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden and Daniel Rich is like Collingwood being without Pendles, Swan and Beams. They simply will find it tough to win without these three key players. Brisbane are just lucky that the Eagles have Dean Cox, Josh Kennedy and Matt Rosa out, along with the fact the game is at the GABBA. The Eagles do get Nic Nat back though. Brisbane were inspiring in recent wins against the Bulldogs and the Roos, but both of those teams are inconsistent. Happy to get on West Coast here.
Saturday night’s other game is Sydney Swans Vs. Carlton Blues. It’s at the SCG and the Swans look to turn their 11-game winning streak into a record setting 12-game one. The Swans are on top of the ladder and won’t be going anywhere soon. The Blues have only one win in Sydney out of the last nine and won’t be making it a second win this weekend. The six goal line is just about right.
Sunday football begins at Etihad Stadium with Richmond Tigers Vs. Port Adelaide Power. The Power have uncharacteristically lost three of their last five, but should get another win here. The Tigers have proven on the field and in the media that they are desperate to regain some pride after a shocking start to the season, but pride can’t make them a better team than a Grand Final contender. The Power still have some troubles in the backline, but should be able to contain Richmond’s forwards. On the other side of the coin though, Richmond will struggle with the elite Port Adelaide goal kickers. Richmond will be competitive, but the Power should get a win and start regaining their confidence.
One of the bigger games of the weekend is Sunday’s Essendon Bombers Vs. Collingwood Magpies. The Bombers are coming off a big win against Port Adelaide and find themselves in finals contention, while Collingwood have been somewhat disappointing of late and need every win they can get to ensure they stay in the 8. Collingwood won by 23 points when these two met back in Round 6 of this year and have won nine of the last 10 total games against one of their (many) rival teams. Both teams are terrible in front of goal, ranked 17th (Dons) and 18th (Pies) in the league for goal kicking accuracy. Should be a good game, with a slight edge given to the Pies.
Round 17 concludes with the massive (sarcasm) Fremantle Dockers Vs. GWS Giants. All jokes aside, it will be good to see how the Giants go against the Dockers over at Patersons Stadium – my guess… Not well. GWS have scored just 44 points and 37 points in the last two meeting against the Dockers, both at Patersons. They will score more this time around, by can’t see them getting within 50 points.
Round 17 Best Betting Tips
Hawthorn Hawks Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.4 at Ladbrokes *
Geelong Cats Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.3 at Ladbrokes ***
Western Bulldogs at the line (+8.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes *
West Coast at the line (-14.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes ***
+ West Coast winner margin 25+ - $2.4 at Ladrbokes *
Port Adelaide Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.25 at Ladbrokes **
Before You Bet Multi of the Week
Cats Under 39.5 / Eagles -14.5 / Port Under 39.5 - $9.94 at Ladbrokes *
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 17 Tipping Advice
Surprise losses from the Hawks and the Power meant we got another seven right last week. Let’s see if we can finally bag nine this time around! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the workplace.
Hawks (Adelaide)
Geelong (Melbourne)
Nth Melbourne (Saints)
Western Bulldogs (Gold Coast)
West Coast (Brisbane)
Sydney (Carlton)
Port Adelaide (Richmond)
Collingwood (Essendon)
Fremantle (GWS)
Score last round: 7
Total score: 91
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
