Hitting the sweet spot with line betting
Line betting is one of the most common forms of sports betting. It’s also one of the fairest with the vig (house edge) usually the smallest of any sports betting types available online. Sometimes sports books will even run promotions offering $2 lines which means there is no edge for the bookies at all.
One of the great things about line betting is that the line itself acts like a living, breathing object. It’s always moving depending on what the betting dictates. It can trend up and it can trend down, and if you’ve been following any of our previous sports trading articles you’ll know that when the market is moving, there are opportunities to make money.
Let’s look at a couple of recent examples involving betting on the AFL.
Some online sports books will release lines for the Total Points Over/Under market early in the week, however these lines can move drastically if bad weather arises later in the week – generally speaking, bad weather means muddy ground and wet football, making it harder to score goals.
Just last week in Round 14, the Fremantle versus Brisbane game was originally posted up with a Total Points line of 162.5, but when bad weather arrived, the line was brought in significantly to 144.5 by the time the ball bounced.
More recently in Round 15, the Collingwood versus Carlton match was posted with a line of 177.5, but that was snapped up with bad weather predicted in Melbourne. The line came into 166.5 at some sports betting agencies by the time the ball was bounced, even though the rain held off for most of the game.
So how can we take advantage of this movement?
If you have a keen eye for meteorology then you can predict where bad weather might strike and cause a shift in of the Total Points line. Getting on the unders early in the week with the Fremantle versus Brisbane game would’ve placed you in a very strong position with the original line never under threat during the match as the total points scored was only 127.
However the Collingwood versus Carlton game was a little closer. In the end, the total match score was 167. So it was under the original line but just over the adjusted line. This is a good example for a play that you can potentially make.
If you placed $100 on the under 177.5 at $1.90 early in the week, then before the bounce you made a play of $100 on the over 166.5. Now you’re in an interesting position:
< 166.5 = you win $90 on the first bet, but lose $100 on the second bet. Result -$10
> 177.5 = you win $90 on the second bet, but lose $100 on the first bet. Result -$10
167-177 = you win $90 on the first bet AND win $90 on the second bet. Result +$180
What you’ve done is create a sweet spot of a juicy ten points where you can win on both bets. You’re not quite freerolling because of the vig, but you have effectively placed a $10 bet at enhanced odds of 18-1 for the match score to fall within a range which is the most likely result of any for this match. A range like 160-170 total game points is often offered at Australian sports books at around $6-1, so you can just how good value finding that $18-1 sweet spot is.
The bigger the shift in the line, the larger your sweet spot to land a big double score at minimal risk.
Now if you apply this scenario to bookmakers who are offering $2 lines, then you have the opportunity for a complete freeroll.
You’ll find the $2 match result lines to be a lot tighter than something like the Total Points bets. There may be trends, but they are harder to predict and will only move by small margins most often based on public betting as opposed to something like weather. But let’s take a look at an example.
Say that Essendon are +15.5 versus North Melbourne and you back the Bombers for $100 at $2 lines. Now Brent Harvey is a late withdrawal for the Kangaroos, so the line shifts in support of the Bombers and comes into +12.5. You can now back the Kangaroos at -12.5 for $100 for a complete freeroll:
NM win > 15 pts = you lose $100 on the 1st bet, but win $100 on the 2nd bet = Result $0
NM win < 13 pts or Ess win = you lose $100 on the 2nd bet, but win $100 on the 1st bet = Result $0
NM win by 13-15 pts = you win $100 on the 1st bet AND win $100 on the 2nd bet = Result +$200
So even though your sweet spot is quite small, just a three-point window in this example, your risk is absolutely non-existent to win a potential $200 for free! What a fantastic position to be in!
Knowing how the markets will trend is a skill in itself, but it’s one of the main reasons why we recommend having accounts open and funded with multiple Australian online sports betting sites. They don’t always have the same lines, so there are often small windows of opportunity that you can take.
Alternatively, if you know a weatherman who likes the footy, then there could be even greater opportunities for you! But generally speaking, you just have to take edges where you find them and use the best sports betting strategies possible.
