Looks can be deceiving. Heading into last weekend we really thought it was one of the easier punting weeks and it looked like we were going to cash in on plenty of value. In the end it proved to be tougher than we thought as we only bagged a couple of winners. Hopefully we can get back to our big winning ways this weekend as it's a "showdown" round. Make sure to read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 15 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 15 Preview
Round 15 kicks off on Friday night with the cracking Geelong Cats Vs. Essendon Bombers. This is an interesting game in that the Cats will be keen to bounce back after their poor week against Gold Coast and need to if they want any chance at making the top four. Essendon, on the other hand, are one game out of the eight after their win against Adelaide last week. Geelong have a solid record against the Bombers, winning the last two at Etihad by 28 and 67 points. Overall the Cats have won eight of the last nine against the Bombers and by an average margin of 57 points. Expecting the Cats to come out and win another against the red and black, but not by nearly as much as that average and not confidently enough to cover a 20 point line. One to sit back and watch.
The first game on Saturday is Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Gold Coast Suns . It’s down at the Aurora Stadium, which will certainly suit the Hawks. The Suns confidence is at an all-time high after beating the Cats last week, so if ever there was a chance to knock off the Hawks, this is it. Don’t think that will happen though. The Hawks defeated the Suns by 99 points earlier this year which will be fresh enough on the memory so as to be in the back of the minds of some of the young suns. They will show enough to be more competitive than that, but ultimately won’t be able to tame the Hawks. The Suns’ Harley Bennell will be well tamed after being let off the leash by the Cats last week and the Suns will find it hard to contain the Hawks forwards. Five-goal plus betting line is well-deserved, but a tough one to bet on. Thinking the Suns can keep it close, but the Hawks will keep getting it done just enough to scoop the four points.
Could there be a less interesting game than St Kilda Saints Vs. Richmond Tigers on Saturday afternoon? The only thing that makes this a little exciting is that it is kind of the battle for the wooden spoon. Both teams have three wins for the year, but the general consensus is that the Tigers are in better form than the Saints, which is very clear by the 35 point line set by bookmakers. The Tigers were admirable against the Swans last week and that will be the basis for which punters get on them this week. Richmond defeated the Saints by 64 points last year and if the Tigers fire up, they could see a similar result here. The Saints have lost their last four game this year by an average of around 70 points and the horizon doesn’t look any brighter. This is the Tigers chance to show the world they aren’t complete spuds and if they have any shred of self-respect, they will take that chance.
Saturday afternoon’s Fremantle Dockers Vs. West Coast Eagles is the 40th “Western Derby” and so not surprisingly it’s shaping up to be a massive game. The Dockers are 4th on the ladder, while the Eagles are struggling at 10th. The Dockers have won the last four of these clashes by an average of 35 points and while the Dockers haven’t been as good as they were last year, the Eagles are arguably a little behind their pace of last year. The Eagles will need their forward line to fire up if they are any chance, but it’s likely that the Dockers won’t let that happen. Should be a good game in front of a big crowd, but can’t see the Dockers losing this one.
There is zero chance the Sydney Swans Vs. GWS Giants game on Saturday evening goes how the last time these two played. Remember back in round 1 when one of the shocks of AFL history happened – somehow the Giants beat the Swans by 29 points. It just won’t happen again. Sure, the Giants are in the best form of their short life in the AFL, winning the past two games (first time back-to-back wins in club history), but the Swans are on a nine-game winning streak and once again looking like the best team in the competition. The 50 point line seems just about right, but it’s a hard one to touch.
The big story leading into Sunday’s Brisbane Lions Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos clash is that Lions triple premiership legend Jonathan Brown retired during the week. He will be paid tribute with a pregame lap of honour, but then will have to sit in the stands and watch the Lions lose to a very competitive Kangaroos. It was just a few weeks ago that the Roos defeated the Lions by 87 points and while that was at the MCG and this is at the Gabba, we can’t see the Lions putting up much more of a fight. The Roos have been using the ball very well, ranked third in the league for disposal efficiency, while the Lions are ranked last in this stat. The Kangaroos should punish the young Lions and come away with an easy win.
Another one of the low-ranked team clashes of the week is Western Bulldogs Vs. Melburne Demons. Both teams have shown significant sparks of improvement over the last few weeks, but the Dogs were brought back to earth by Port last week and the Demons were disappointing against the Roos. These two teams met back in Round 8 and the Bulldogs came away with a 16 point win, though it was much closer than that margin. Historically the Bulldogs have had the wool over the Demons, but this is a new era and Paul Roos is a different beast all together. The Bulldogs handball more than any other team and the pressure-style that the Demons play could punish this. Bulldogs deserve to be favourite, but tough game to bet on, so going to stay away.
Continuing the theme of “showdown” games is Adelaide Crows Vs. Port Adelaide Power. Considering the crowds at Adelaide Oval of late, this is going to be an absolutely massive game. Both coaches always talk about how form doesn’t matter in these matches and over the last few years that has probably been true. But you can’t deny that the Power defeated the Crows by 54 points in this same game earlier in the year and you just can’t deny that the Power are a sickeningly tough team at the moment. Both teams know how to win centre clearances, but the Power are just silkier around the grounds. Adelaide fought hard against the Bombers last week after being disappointing for most of the game and will need to show way more here. Think the Crows will stand up and be more competitive than the last showdown, but Power should win.
The final game of the round is a fan-favourite Collingwood Magpies Vs. Carlton Blues. It’s a Sunday night game at the MCG and should draw a massive crowd. The Blues confidence is at an all-time low after losing to GWS last week, which made it four losses in a row. The Pies, on the other hand, might have lost the last two, but were better against the Hawks last week and will take some confidence from that game. The Pies will have Steele Sidebottom back here and Dayne Beams should fire up after a slow first-game back last week. It was Beams who helped the Pies win by 34 points back in Round 7, kicking four goals. You just can’t see the Blues stopping the Pies midfield and so if Pendles, Swan, Beams et al are firing, the Blues will find it hard.
Round 15 Best Betting Tips
Hawthorn Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.35 at Ladbrokes **
Richmond at the line (-34.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Fremantle Dockers Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.10 at Ladbrokes **
Nth Melbourne at the line (-36.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Port Adelaide Power Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes **
Collingwood Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.15 at Ladbrokes *
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round Round 15 Tipping Advice
There were a few upsets last week (Gold Coast / GWS anyone?), but we still managed a solid six tips. Still waiting for that elusive nine correct picks and hopefully they come this week! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace.
Geelong (Essendon)
Hawks (Gold Coast)
Richmond (Saints)
Fremantle (West Coast)
Sydney (GWS)
Nth Melbourne (Brisbane)
Bulldogs (Melbourne)
Port Adelaide (Adelaide)
Collingwood (Carlton)
Score last round: 6
Total Score: 77
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
