Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill on Saturday, March 24th.
We have a nine-race card featuring FIVE Group 1 races. The track that’s currently rated a Heavy 8. I don’t expect the track to upgrade significantly, so wet track form should come to the fore. The rail is out 2m.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, make sure you listen to Episode 27 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim previews the action from Rosehill and Mornington. You can also view our Mornington Racing Tips here!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 #7 Nettoyer
Best Value: Race 8 #1 Le Romain
RACE 1
Nice little race to start off. (3) I Am Excited was a good winner last start, making it two wins from two starts this preparation, so with the good draw I’ll be backing her once again. She draws well in barrier 3 and although she’s got no wet track form to speak of, she has trialled very well on soft ground in the past. Also backing (4) Beau Geste who was terrific first up. Better drawn today in barrier 7 and won second up last preparation. His only start on soft ground was a 2L win so $7.50 appeals. (5) Brave Song is the interesting runner. He has been racing against some very good horses in much tougher races, so the drop back to this grade could see him improve sharply. (6) Isaurian and (11) Tarabai have claims – the latter’s form from his last start win has already stood up with Prince Mayted winning its next start. Risking (7) Acqume who had the run of the race last start and was still bettered by I Am Excited, so might struggle to turn the tables from barrier 10 here.
TIP: (3) I Am Excited / (4) Beau Geste EW
RACE 2
Three I’m interested in here. (7) Nettoyer finally gets a wet track. Her only start on a heavy track was a 10L win over 2000m last preparation, so after three solid runs this preparation she really strikes a race with conditions to suit. She also gets a huge jockey change today with Kerrin McEvoy taking over from Rachel King. $3 is acceptable. Another mare sure to appreciate the wet track is (2) Consammateur, who resumed with a good run over 1400m. She won this exact race last year and she’s undefeated on soft ground so I won’t be losing on her at $6.50. The value could be (6) Perfect Rhyme at $12. She’s third up here and has finished top two in both starts on heavy ground.
TIP: (7) Nettoyer / (6) Perfect Rhyme EW
RACE 3
Keen to take on the two favourites here – (1) Lord Fandango and (6) Alward. There was a stack of money for (5) Patrick Erin last start, which was his first start for Chris Waller and his first start in Australia. He was rarely clear in the straight and even though I don’t think he would have won, the weight of money that came for him suggested he is going well. He gets Kerrin McEvoy on today, draws well and has good wet track form so I’m taking another chance on him here at $7. Also backing (12) Peribsen at $8. All three of his career wins have been on wet ground and he was a winner over this distance last start. I’m not thrilled with Craig Williams’ record in Sydney but that’s about the only concern. (4) Master Of Arts must be included at $8.50 – he has terrific wet track form and will be spot on for this. (7) Admiral Jello not hopless.
TIP: (5) Patrick Erin EW / (12) Peribsen EW
RACE 4
The Group 1 Ranvet Stakes. Not overly confident here because I went looking for something to beat (1) Gailo Chop but nothing really stands out. Gailo is flying this preparation and will be suited by the track conditions here. He’s undefeated from three starts on heavy ground and has won three from five on soft ground, so he looks well placed. Weir’s record in Sydney is some cause for concern and at $1.90 I’m finding it hard to jump in but he looks the one to beat. (5) Ventura Storm could run a cheeky race. He ran 2nd to Winx third up last preparation and has decent soft track form. (6) Sarrasin is another that I’d be keeping safe. He has been transferred from Chris Waller to Richard Freedman. Freedman is a very astute trainer and is doing a super job with his small team, and he’s had success with horses like this before – just look at what he’s done with Auvray. This horse has only had eight starts so he’s still very lightly raced.
TIP: (1) Gailo Chop
RACE 5
The Group 1 George Ryder Stakes. Not much to say here. (4) Winx will beat these comfortably but it’s good to see Godolphin throw (6) Kementari in the deep end. He’s the new star but he won’t beat Winx. The only way we can bet here is to back a horse to run 2nd. Kementari is currently $1.77 to do that but I’ll be having something on both (1) Happy Clapper ($3) and (2) Clearly Innocent ($18) to place. Happy Clapper was super winning the Canterbury Stakes first up and Clearly Innocent is undefeated from four starts on wet ground so he’s not hopeless as a place chance.
TIP: (4) Winx / (1) Happy Clapper & (2) Clearly Innocent to place
RACE 6
The Group 1 Rosehill Guineas. Typically the Randwick Guineas and the New Zealand Derby are the formlines to look out for here. With that in mind, I’m with the New Zealand Derby winner (2) Vin De Dance for the lethal Baker/Forsman stable. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride on the Kiwi and draws well in barrier 3. Normally the drop back from 2400m to 2000m would concern me but it’s been proven a number of times that it works for this race, and with the wet track, the extra fitness of a 2400m horse could prove vital. Happy enough with $6.50. The obvious pick of the Randwick Guineas horses is (8) D’Argento, who was the victim of a wide barrier in that race. I think he’s a seriously good horse and Bowman goes back on board today after forfeiting the ride last start. Drawn well and has won on soft ground so looks a big chance. (11) The Lord Mayor looks over the odds at $26. He ran 4th in the New Zealand Derby and has his first run for Waller here. McEvoy on and drawn reasonably. Taking on (1) Ace High who has had four starts on wet ground for zero placings.
TIP: (2) Vin De Dance EW
RACE 7
The Group 1 Golden Slipper. This is an absolute headache to work out. We’ve got two favourites that are on the one-week back-up and come through non-traditional Slipper lead up races. We’ve got another horse that dumped its rider last start and on top of all that, there’s the wet track to contend with. In the end I’ve landed on three horses I’ll be backing. I’ll be taking on the fillies here and siding with the boys. I’ve been with (1) Written By all along and it would make me ill if he was to win today and I jumped off. While his win in the Pago Pago last weekend wasn’t visually dominant, it was impressive in that he ran very good time and spaced the 3rd horse. He’s drawn well here and will be up on speed (doesn’t have to lead) and he already has a heavy-track win to his name. $5 is short enough such is the nature of this race and the competitiveness of it this year. The quick back-up does concern me but he’s a good colt. (2) Santos could be the dark horse here. Again, his win in the Skyline Stakes wasn’t visually impressive but he got the job done. He will sit just off the speed from barrier 7 and I like the fact he’s had three weeks between runs compared to some of the others who have raced either last week or the week before. He certainly comes from a stable that knows how to win this race so $11 is an acceptable price. I also haven’t dropped off (5) Performer. In my opinion he would have run top three at least in the Todman Stakes when he threw Hugh Bowman, and Bowman himself actually said this week that he thinks he would have won. We’re getting a bigger price because of that last start, and the big concern on my mind is Hugh Bowman. How can he be 100% confident riding this horse when the last time he whipped it the horse went sideways and gave him one of the worst falls of his career? The good news is he will have already won on Winx, so he won’t be taking it easy and avoiding suspension. The wide barrier may be a blessing and at $10 he’s another I’ll be backing. (3) Aylmerton is the smokey for mine and isn’t without a chance here. With all of that said, I have to take on some horses and I’ll be taking on (10) Sunlight. That’s not to say she can’t win but Written By ran a quicker time than her last start and I can’t back them all. (11) Estijaab is another filly that I really like but I’ll probably have to take her on too. (15) Seabrook should arguably be undefeated this prep and was terrific when winning last start despite sitting wide the whole race. Not without a chance.
TIP: (1) Written By / (2) Santos / (5) Performer – backing all for the same return
RACE 8
The Group 1 The Galaxy. I’ve got the top two in the market on top here and I found it hard to split them, but in the end I’ve gone with the Godolphin colt (13) Viridine who carries just 50kg. His first up run over 1000m in the Challenge Stakes was outstanding and form for this doesn’t get much better than Redzel. With the light weight he will be very hard to hold out. (3) In Her Time really deserves a Group 1 and she gets her chance today but has to give Viridine 5kg. She should already be a multiple Group 1 winner but has been on the receiving end of some very ordinary rides in the big races. She gets Zac Purton on today which is a huge plus, and it’d be absolutely no surprise to see her win this. I’ll be backing her for a decent result but tipping Viridine on top. (2) Jungle Edge ran 2nd to Redzel first up and grows a leg on wet ground so the heavy track makes him a legitimate chance here. Just querying whether he is as classy as some of the others. The value could be (1) Le Romain who has to carry the top weight of 58kg but he’s got a very good fresh record and a very good record on wet tracks. $21 looks over the odds. There’s been a big move for (10) Snitty Kitty who went very close in the Oakleigh Plate and comes here third up from a spell. She’ll be up the front and will be hard to run down with 52kg.
TIP: (13) Viridine / (1) Le Romain EW
RACE 9
(3) Sugar Bella is absolutely flying and just continues to win so there’s no reason to jump off here. She had absolutely no right to win last start when she ended up back last in a very slowly run race. She stormed over the top of them and proved she might just be very good. She draws awkwardly in barrier 3 here given she might have some traffic to negotiate, and she also might be on the worst part of the track, but we can’t predict that so I’m just banking on the fact she’s better than these. (4) Tulip finds an easier race than the Canterbury Stakes she contested last start. She’s drawn way out in the car park but gets in well with just 53kg. If Sugar Bella is a leading chance then (10) Miss Que must be considered a chance, as well as (11) Slow Burn who was unlucky in the same race last start. (2) Faraway Town is another at double figure odds to include. Taking on the Weir runner (6) Quilista.
TIP: (3) Sugar Bella
QUADDIE
2, 4, 5, 8, 11
1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 11, 15
1, 2, 3, 10, 13
2, 3, 4, 10, 11
$100 = 11.42%
