Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for night racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, March 2nd.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 2m position. Looking for on-pacers throughout the night but it hasn’t been impossible to make ground in the past two weeks.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 #4 Diamond Grace
Best Value: Race 1 #8 Daily At Dawn
RACE 1
Very competitive race to start off with. I could make a legitimate case for every runner. (3) Sundarbans goes on top after a promising debut over 1000m here, where he hit the line hard from back in the field. From the draw, he’ll once again get back in the field, which obviously is the concern, but if he is close enough on the turn he has the ability to reel them in. The step up to 1200m looks as if it will really suit. (8) Daily At Dawn looks the value in the race. I’m expecting this horse to hold out (5) Metronome in the lead, and that should give it a chance to rail strongly and be in front for a long way. It was a solid debut at Warrnambool and Damian Lane picks up the ride tonight which is a good lead. Taking $11 as it could start shorter due to the speed map. (2) Roobeena comes out of a strong race and can bounce back in this sort of race. (4) Gheedaa gets blinkers on first time and D Oliver takes the ride, while (7) All Too Handy looks over the odds at $21 after a fairly luckless run in the same race as Gheedaa last start.
TIP: (3) Sundarbans / (8) Daily At Dawn EW
RACE 2
Even sort of staying race with nothing really standing out. (6) Divine Command goes on top after a good run at the track and distance last week. Draws better tonight so should be able to sit a touch closer in the run and a repeat effort would see her hard to beat on the quick back-up. (5) Miss Danni could be worth giving another chance to after disappointing as favourite last start when well backed. She won nicely two starts ago over 2100m at Sandown and drops back from the 2400m back to 2040m tonight. Maps to find the lead and could give a good sight at $9. Keeping (8) Three Strykes safe with the step up to 2040m after two runs at the mile, and (7) Isle Of Capri is knocking on the door. (2) Ceylon has won two from its past three but they’ve been at Cranbourne and Pakenham and he’s drawn awkward here, so I’ll take him on.
TI: (6) Divine Command / (5) Miss Danni EW
RACE 3
Sticking with (10) Mawzoona here who is Mark Zahra’s only ride for the night. Zahra is probably the in-form jockey in Victoria at the minute, and he wouldn’t be heading to the Valley for one ride if it wasn’t a chance, especially for this stable. $5.50 and could start shorter. (1) Runaway returns from a spell and they’ll take him straight to the lead here. Waterhouse/Bott runners in Melbourne always deserve respect and it’s never a disadvantage to lead at the Valley. (13) Fern and (14) Tbilisi are worth throwing in numbers at huge odds. The former won her last start at the track and has trialled well leading into her first up run, and the latter comes off a decent win, with the form since stacking up out of the race. (4) Baduzzi comes out of a strong form race and maps beautifully, and (6) Branksome Chimes maps poorly from the wide barrier but will appreciate the step up to 1200m.
TIP: (10) Mawzoona / (14) Tbilisi EW
RACE 4
(10) Montaser looks hard to beat, mostly due to the good barrier draw, but he’s short enough in the market at near enough to even money. He comes off a sound win at Sandown and looks as if he will eat up the mile, but this is a decent little race. Following my money on (2) Greviste who went awfully close last start and would have won had he got a run earlier, but he was locked away on the rail while the winner got first run. The wide draw isn’t ideal but he won’t have the same problem as last start. This is one of only two rides on the night for Ben Melham and the horse showed last start that he’s ready to win. Needs a peach of a ride but $5 is appealing. (5) Peruggia was heavily backed last start over this track and distance and got the win. The horse he beat then came out and won its next start in Saturday grade, so if Rawiller can give him a good ride from barrier 9 he’ll go close. (6) Sensation Ally has a poor record at the track but she’ll go forward and likely lead – she comes off a sound win and the horse that ran 2nd has since won again.
TIP: (2) Greviste
RACE 5
Only three winning chances here. (6) Sprightly Lass returns from a spell here having won three of her first four starts. She’s a speed ball and won her only start at this track by 3L. Dunn will need to get over quickly from barrier 9 but if she gets across without too much trouble she should be very hard to beat. (5) Matty will get the drop on Sprightly Lass from barrier 4, and he is no hack himself. He won first up over 1000m at this track last preparation, so with Damian Lane booked from the good barrier he should go very close. (4) Pravro looks the only other chance with Oliver taking the ride.
TIP: (6) Sprightly Lass
RACE 6
Two I like here. Very keen on (4) Diamond Grace, who has run very well in two starts this preparation, both over this track and distance. She was a convincing winner last start and the 2kg rise in weight won’t worry her. She won dominantly third up last preparation and I love the fact she’s had two runs at this track and distance leading into tonight’s race, with many of the opposition stepping up from 2000m. She looks one of the best bets of the night. (11) Poppiholla is knocking on the door and has gone agonisingly close in recent starts. She’s ready for the 2500m with three 2400m runs under her belt. She draws well and Damian Lane takes over so the $7 appeals for her. (5) Midas Man is in form but needs to step up from 2000m to 2500m. (9) Raindrops On Roses and (10) Corrs others to include.
TIP: (4) Diamond Grace / (11) Poppiholla EW
RACE 7
Sticking with (8) Sabotage who is having his third run back from a year off the track and looks to really get his chance here. Drops from 60kg to 56kg, draws barrier 1 and gets Ben Melham on board. As I mentioned in an above race, Melham has only come for two rides tonight so that’s a positive lead. Taking $5.50. (10) Savaju has hit form and draws well once again in barrier 3 with Oliver again booked to ride. Should run well. (6) Septamore could be the value at double figure odds second up from a spell here but his record at 1200m is the concern. (5) Petite’s Reward won last start after leading but faces a tougher task from the wide barrier tonight, while (1) Hay Bale was another last start winner but might be a 1000m horse rather than a 1200m horse. Wary of (2) Tribal Wisdom first up from a spell.
TIP: (8) Sabotage EW
RACE 8
Very keen on the two Weir runners to finish off the card here. Putting (6) Reilmartini on top of (11) Scoliaro but backing both. Reilmartini comes off a very good debut win at Ballarat, where he won by 2.25L. Weir brings these horses to town often and they always measure up. From the good draw he looks to get every chance to make it two from two. Scoliaro gets the blinkers back on tonight after going close last start. He’s knocking on the door for a win and the blinkers back on could do the trick. (3) Tonteria the only other one I could include after finishing 3rd in the same race as Scoliaro last start, despite travelling wide throughout.
TIP: (6) Reilmartini
QUADDIE
5, 6
1, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11
2, 4, 6, 8, 10
3, 6, 11
$100 = 55.55%
