The final State of Origin game may be a dead rubber but the two teams won’t be looking at it like that as they will go out all out to win the final game. Continue reading for our 2016 State of Origin Game 3 Preview and Betting Tips.
- - -
New South Wales vs Queensland (Wednesday 8pm AEST)
The Blues have made multiple changes to their line up but not as many as some experts wanted. A lot of people wanted them to look towards 2017 and blood a lot of young players but Laurie Daley has stuck with the majority of his side that has failed to win in the opening two games of this series. The big change came at the fullback position as James Tedesco was selected at fullback with Matt Moylan missing out on originally being in the team. Tedesco had to be picked at fullback as he is arguably the best at that position in the competition and he has the statistics to back it up. Despite playing on a team that has struggled throughout the last few years and is currently sitting in 12th position, Tedesco has registered 11 tries, 12 line breaks and 11 try assists in just 13 games this season. He is an incredibly dangerous player and he will put the Queensland defence in two minds whenever he has the ball in his hands because he is a speedster that is incredibly light on his feet with a lot of upper body strength to break tackles.
Another big change that has happened to the New South Wales squad has happened due to injury. Adam Reynolds was forced to pull out due to a shoulder injury that has hampered him since Game 2 and that brought Moylan back into the squad. Daley hasn’t stated whether he will slot into the halves but we believe it will be Jack Bird who will move into the starting line up to partner his Sharks teammate in the halves. Bird has played this season at the centre position but played all of last year at five-eighth and is a dangerous runner of the ball. However, Moylan would be a great fit in the position also as he is a terrific playmaker but the downside is he has never played a first grade game at five-eighth and it wouldn’t be the best idea to throw him into the deep end at Origin level.
The other changes include Josh Dugan returning to right centre after overcoming an arm injury that kept him out of the first two games and Wade Graham will get his chance to debut for the Blues after missing out on game two after being charged at the judiciary.
Meanwhile the Queensland side has stayed relatively the same with their only changes being forced due to injuries to Michael Morgan and Josh Papalii. Nate Myles slots back into the side to replace Papalii whilst Gavin Cooper will make his debut for Queensland as a 30-year-old. Cooper is a experienced player and has a great combination with Johnathan Thurston at club level for the Cowboys. Whilst the side will miss the impact Papalii and Morgan have off the bench, it won’t be a disaster for the side as nearly anyone who enters the Queensland system will play at a high level and they never seem to have injuries to their key personnel.
The matches played in Sydney generally have less points scored in Origin matches but with the series already over the teams won’t be as tense in this match and we believe it will be a high scoring contest. NSW have definitely picked a team that will be relying on its attack more than its defence. In the last game we backed the overs and it paid off and we will be doing the same in this one.
TIP: Over 36.5 points with CrownBet
Whilst the series may be over and the shield staying in Queensland for the 10th time in the last 11 years, there is still plenty on the line for the Blues as if they lose and get a white wash, with two of the three games being on home soil, it will be a complete embarrassment for the side. The new faces in the team bring a lot of youth into the squad and we are predicting Tyson Frizell to have a strong game at lock on the back of his great performance in Game 2 and Wade Graham offers another threat on the left edge. He could have a good combination with Tedesco as Graham is a strong ball player. We believe Tedesco is a made Origin player despite not playing at the level before and he will be getting his hands on everything in this contest and have a massive game. Whilst Queensland have a champion side, it is New South Wales that will come out on top in this one with a narrow victory.
Update: Matt Moylan has moved into the starting side which has pushed Jack Bird to the bench. This could be a sign of things to come in the future as Moylan is seen by many as a five-eighth and it will also allow for New South Wales to have a bigger impact off the bench with the x-fact Bird. We will be keeping our tip the same.
TIP: New South Wales 1-12 @ $2.85 with Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
