The 2016 NRL season continues this weekend with a lot of players backing up from Origin duty on Wednesday night. We will take that into account as we offer our NRL Round 16 Preview and Betting Tips.
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Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
The Rabbitohs are coming off another loss as they were very poor against the Eels last week. The side has continued to stick with what has made them so successful in the past few years and that is bashing the ball up the middle and sticking to a structured platform. However, their forwards aren’t as dominant as in the past and they are making far too many handling errors considering the basic game plan they bring to each match. Luke Keary signed with the Roosters on a three-year deal mid week, which leaves me to believe he will be left on the bench and Greg Inglis will back up from Origin at five-eighth. Adam Reynolds will also be called upon to back up as the Rabbitohs are in a horrible position on the ladder and every match is becoming a must win for them.
Meanwhile the Panthers have benefited from a week off and it came after they earned a massive victory against the Sea Eagles. They were trailing 24-4 early in the second half and pulled off one of the best comebacks of all time and it was on the back of Nathan Cleary who was in just his second NRL game. The youngster showed poise way beyond his years and he will no doubt be named again this weekend. However, it remains to be seen if Jamie Soward or James Segyaro will be brought back into first grade after being dropped to reserve grade. Even if they are absent, the Panthers will be too strong on the back of a superior forward pack and their creative backline.
UPDATE: Segyaro and Soward have not been named and will stay in NSW cup this weekend. Meanwhile there has been a lot of changes to the Rabbitohs expected line up with Keary staying in the halves despite signing with the Roosters as Greg Inglis has been shifted to the centres. It will be interesting to see if this can spark the Rabbitohs attack but we will be sticking with the Panthers by a narrow margin in this one.
TIP: Panthers 1-12 @ $3.10 with Sportsbet
Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons (Saturday 3pm AEST)
The Dragons earned another victory against a depleted top four side on the weekend as they were too strong for the Storm who were without their entire spine as Blake Green and Cameron Munster were ruled out prior to kick off whilst Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith were in Queensland camp for Origin. The Dragons have still been struggling to score but they have been finding ways to win and it is a good opportunity for them this weekend to find that attacking spark.
The Knights are stranded on the bottom of the table and despite their still being 11 rounds remaining they are short priced favourites to pick up the wooden spoon for a second straight year. They have averaged over 35 points scored against them a game which is incredibly high and whilst they have been more competitive on home soil, the Dragons have a great record against the knights winning 21 of the 31 meetings including 14 of the 17 at Hunter stadium.
UPDATE: Sims will not be eligible to take on his former team.
TIP: Dragons -6.5 @ $1.90 with CrownBet
Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors (Saturday 5.30pm AEST)
The Sharks are short priced favourites in this one and deservedly so having won 10 straight matches, however they will have four key players backing up from Origin just three days earlier. Paul Gallen and Andrew Fifita will be in the thick of things whilst James Maloney will play the full 80-minutes at five-eighth. Jack Bird should still be fresh as he will just be used as a utility off the bench but it still will impact the side as they will exert a lot of energy on the Wednesday night and then need to travel back to Sydney to join their team and play with a short preparation.
The Warriors have won three straight matches as they usually kick into another gear around Origin time. They are only affected with Jacob Lillyman joining the Queensland side to replace the injured Nate Myles. The New Zealand side was poor on the weekend against the Roosters and despite multiple opportunities to crack the oppositions line it took individual brilliance from Shaun Johnson to get them the victory. They will bounce back strongly this weekend as they always bring their best performances against the strongest sides and we are backing them to beat the line in this one.
TIP: Warriors +9.5 @ $1.90 with Ladbrokes
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos (Saturday 7.30pm AEST)
The Bulldogs and Broncos are both affected by Origin duty but the away side has possibly six players backing up whilst the Bulldogs will have Josh Jackson and David Klemmer. Broncos Coach Wayne Bennett prefers to rest his some of his stars after an Origin game and it was Corey Oates and Matt Gillett who missed their loss against the Warriors 3 weeks ago. He will no doubt elect to do the same this weekend but who he will choose to leave out remains to be seen.
The Bulldogs earned a big win in their last match against the Dragons and have begun to find some consistency in their performances. Their forward pack is working well together whilst Josh Reynolds and Moses Mbye are working off the back of this and are creating opportunities for their men out wide. However, an area they must improve in is their last tackle options. The Broncos defence is one of the best in the competition and the way to crack it is by repeated pressure and this has been an area where the Bulldogs have struggled as their kicking game is poor and they often chance their arm and run the ball on the last tackle. They will need to earn repeat sets if they are to stand a chance this weekend but I am backing the Broncos to have learned from their mistakes earlier when they lost after Origin and put on a solid performance for victory this weekend.
UPDATE: Josh Morriss has been named to return despite missing out on Origin Game 2 but brother Brett wasn't named despite the rumours circling.
TIP: Broncos -2.5 @ $1.90 with Ladbrokes
Gold Coast Titans vs Canberra Raiders (Sunday 2pm AEST)
This is a hard match to pick and an important one for both teams as the Titans are sitting in 8th spot on the ladder equal with three other sides who are below them due to a worse points differential. Meanwhile the Raiders are sitting one competition point above them in seventh spot and can’t afford a loss either. The Green Machine had an opportunity to send a statement to the rest of the competition when they took on the Broncos two weeks ago but they failed to live up to the hype of the match and the scoreboard favoured them after they managed a late fight back when the match was basically already over. They need more out of their halves pairing Aiden Seizer and Blake Austin as a lot of their backs are creating opportunities out of their own individual brilliance.
The Titans continue to surprise everyone as they earned a convincing win against the Sea Eagles on Monday night. Ashley Taylor continues to star in his first season in the top grade whilst Ryan James has taken it upon himself to be the leader of the forward pack and has been dominant all season. He is playing 80-minutes as a front row forward and has crossed the line on six occasions as he is continuing to be hard to bring down for any defence. It will be a massive challenge for him to continue this input against a big Raiders pack and it will be vital he is able to do that for his side to stand a chance. The Raiders have such a great attack when they are switched on and if their forward pack can continue to be dominant, I am backing them to come out on top.
TIP: Raiders to win @ $1.96 with William Hill
Melbourne Storm vs Wests Tigers (Sunday 4pm AEST)
Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith will be backing up from Origin duty and after Game 1 Craig Bellamy didn’t name his two stars but prior to kick off they were included in the line up. I am expecting the same thing to happen this time around with Cameron Munster and Blake Green also returning to the line up after being late withdrawals in the loss against the Dragons. The Storm have stuck to their game plan this year and it has been incredibly successful that saw them climb to the top of the ladder before their recent loss.
The Tigers have shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season whilst they have also been incredibly poor at times. Their inconsistencies make them hard to predict but with the side on the road against the Storm it is hard to see them pulling off an upset. The Tigers forced the Storm into extra time when they met earlier this year but Cooper Cronk was able to seal the victory for his side iwht a field goal. The weather on Sunday in Melbourne is expected to be cold and a high chance of rain, which could turn this side into a closer contest then expected and because of that we will be backing the Tigers with the line.
UPDATE: The spine of Smith, Cronk, Green and Munster have all been named to return to the line up this weekend, however we are still predicting a close contest with the Tigers style of footy being an issue for the Storm.
TIP: Tigers +12.5 @ $1.90 with CrownBet
North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles (Monday 7pm AEST)
The Sea Eagles season is continuing to get worse and worse and their latest 20-point loss was an embarrassing one despite the injuries to the side. They were never in the contest and their attack was almost as bad as their defence. Their one shining light continues to be Tom and Jake Trbojovec as the brothers put their all into the contest. Jamie Lyon should return this weekend in a boost for the side but Daly Cherry-Evans is still a couple of weeks away from returning, which will leave Apisai Koroisau and Dylan Walker in the halves. However, the biggest disappointment this season for the Sea Eagles has been Brett Stewart. The fullback has been incredibly poor averaging just four runs per match and a little over 30m per game. This is no where near the standard that Stewart has set for himself over the past decade and he will need to improve or he could be finding himself shipped off at the end of the season.
The Cowboys will have five players backing up from Origin duty with all of them likely to play after coach Paul Green elected to have all of his stars back up after Game 1 except for Michael Morgan who suffered a concussion. They will have the extended period to rest up and with their stars on the field they will earn a big victory as they are averaging over 30-points on their home soil this year whilst the Sea Eagles won’t be able to score enough to keep up with the defending premiers.
TIP: Cowboys -15.5 @ $1.90 with Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
