An 11-game slate for the third to last week of Monday morning football this NFL regular season. We kick things off with a huge 7 game early window, highlighted by Eagles and Commanders clash, and also a couple of games with 47+, so there should be plenty of action early, Then, in the 4-game late window, matchups between the Vikings and Seahawks, and 49ers vs Dolphins should satiate our appetite for big time football this NFL Sunday.
As always, Draftstars has a $20,000 contest, with a $2,000 first prize. There are plenty of other contests for everyone to get involved, no matter your budget.
NFL 2024-25 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 16
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts - $17,030
Hurts looked a lot better last week through the air, and that is why I am bullish on him this week, as the Eagles take on fellow NFC East challengers, the Washington Commanders. Hurts struggled to produce the big plays in the previous matchup between the teams, but with Barkley and Brown banged up, Hurts needs to step up in a big spot here for the Eagles. The Commanders rank bottom 10 in both pass defence, and rushing defence, so the Eagles should have their way on offense. With a low score of 14.9 and high of 35.1, he has a terrific floor and an elite ceiling. If you’re not willing to break the bank for Josh Allen, Hurts is your man.
Aaron Rodgers - $12,170
Don’t look now, but old man Rodgers is currently ranked 6th over the past two weeks in fantasy points per game for quarterbacks. In those two weeks, Rodgers has ranked fourth in passing yards per game, fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in fantasy points per drop back. The Jets have a tough matchup this week against the Rams, but it’s a high total (46.5), and I expect the Jets to be chasing hard against a solid Rams offense. Since week 10, the Rams pass defence has ranked bottom 10 in success rate per drop back, passing touchdowns conceded, and EPA per drop back. Rodgers, for the price, is a great pick up at QB if you want to spend up at the skill positions.
Running Backs
James Conner - $14,500
Every week we play the running back taking on the Carolina Panthers, and every week they smash for us. This week is no different, and Conner could go nuclear against this non-existent Panthers run defence. The Panthers have conceded the most rushing yards in total, the most rushing touchdowns in total, and the most fantasy points total to opponent running backs this season. With Conner coming off a huge game last week (138 all purpose yards, 2 touchdowns), expect him to back that up with another top 5 display this week.
James Cook - $13,210
Cook has a massive ceiling this week against a poor Patriots run defence, given the weather in Buffalo will lend itself to a heavy rushing day by both teams. Cook is very much a rocks or diamonds running back, and there are slight concerns that if the Bills get out to a lead, they will rely more heavily on rookie running back Ray Davis, in order to keep Cook fresh. However, if Cook gets enough chances, he should gash a Patriots defence that ranks 29th in DVOA against the run. After a massive game last week against the Lions, the Bills offensive line should bully this Patriots front 7 around and allow Cook the room to gash this defence all day long.
Tyjae Spears - $8,760
With Titans RB1 Tony Pollard banged up and missing practice throughout the week, there’s noise he may miss out in the Titans’ week 16 clash with the Jaguars. If that’s the case, load up on Tyjae Spears, who should get the vast majority of snaps at running back if Pollard is out. Whilst Spears has struggled with explosiveness this season, this week could be the week for him to breakout against an Indy rushing defence that has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the tenth-most rushing yards, and the tenth-highest missed tackle rate per game since week 10.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $12,620
The Seahawks take on a Vikings defence this week that is a little overrated in my opinion, and if Geno Smith is fully healthy I love the JSN play this week. The Vikings defend with two-high safeties at the highest rate in the league, and against this coverage JSN has great numbers, commanding a 19.1% target share, 24.5% first-read share, and 2.36 yards per route run. On top of that, the Vikings defence has been poor against slot receivers, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards, and eighth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
DJ Moore - $12,480
Moore destroyed the Lions in the previous meeting between these teams, and I expect him to have another big game this week. The Lions like to play with a single-high safety, and against this type of coverage, Moore excels, dominating with a 33.3% target share, a 37.9% first-read share, and 2.32 YPRR. The Lions defence has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points and yards to perimeter wide receivers, and with several key injuries on defence, the Bears offense should have a nice bounce back this week.
Jordan Addison - $11,670
Addison’s ceiling is hard to ignore at this price point, and after torching the Bears and Falcons over the past month, he could be on for another big game this week against an improved Seahawks defence. Seattle have defended with a two-high look at the fifth-highest rate over the past two months, and against that coverage Addison excels, commanding a 21.4% target share, a 24.5% first-read share, and 1.81 YPRR. With the Seahawks likely trying to shut down All-Pro Justin Jefferson, Addison should get plenty of looks to do his thing in a massive game for both teams.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride - $12,890
McBride is a similar write up to that of James Conner, but McBride is a far easier sell because of his pedigree. McBride leads the league in targets per game for tight ends, and over the past month has been targeted an insane 13.3 times per game. Against a Panthers defence that allows the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends, McBride is an auto-select if you want an elite TE this week.
Brenton Strange - $8,240
Strange is a little more expensive than I thought he would be, but after his performance last week it’s hard not to pick him again this week. Taking over as TE1 and having Mac Jones under center, last week Strange commanded 12 targets, catching 11 of them for 73 yards and a touchdown. This week. Strange gets a Raiders defence that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Will be a nice point of difference for many this week who haven’t heard of Strange.
D/ST
Cincinnati Bengals - $6,050
Whilst the Bengals defence has continued to struggle when looking at advanced metrics and even just the eye test, they continue to score points in fantasy. This week is another great chance for them to cause havoc, as they take on the Cleveland Browns who are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. The Browns have allowed the most sacks per game this season, and I expect the Bengals to rush the passer hard all game, especially considering the Browns are likely behind and chasing. This could lead to interceptions, and a massive score for the Bengals D/ST.
Arizona Cardinals - $4,970
This is purely a play against the Panthers, who I think may have hit the wall this season. They had three heart breaking losses in a row to playoff teams, and it appeared last week that it all caught up with them. Injuries continue to be a problem, and with them likely chasing the game, I expect another multiple-turnover game from Bryce Young. The Offensive line looks beat up, and the Cardinals should be able to get pressure on Young all game.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
