The UFC heads to Austin, Texas this weekend for a packed UFC Fight Night card. In the Main Event, Beneil Dariush looks to bounce back from his devastating loss to Charles Oliveira when he faces rampaging contender Arman Tsarukyan. In the co-main, Jalin Turner meets Bobby Green and Deiveson Figueiredo takes on Rob Font up a weight class. Sean Brady also returns from a year layoff to take on Kelvin Gastelum.
We take a look at my best UFC bets on one of the best UFC Fight Night cards of the year.
UFC Fight Night Preview & Betting Tips
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Throughout my time following and previewing the UFC, I have always had a knack for fights where Beneil Dariush will succeed and fail and as anticipated Charles Oliveira was a challenge too great. After being stopped once again people are saying he has no chin and the fact is he has never really been great at taking a shot and is ageing. This weekend he meets Arman Tsarukyan who has only been out-grappled by Islam Makhachev and even made that look competitive, however, I am not quite sold on him being the next Lightweight champ that many make him out to be.
Tsarukyan doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game other than the fact he often tries to beat his opponents at their own game. The truth is if he tries to grapple with Dariush he most likely loses and that is what I see happening here. Tsarukyan’s only two losses come to Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot in the UFC, and Gamrot was beaten just months ago by Dariush. I believe the Iranian-born American should be the favourite in this fight and recency bias has once again played a factor in the pricing here. Back Dariush to get his hand raised at very juicy odds.
Beneil Dariush to win
$3.40 (3 units)
Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum
I am still of the opinion Sean Brady can challenge the top of the division and his loss to Belal Muhammad was more of a learning experience than a fighter exposing him in my opinion. Brady is a strong grappler whose striking is far from bad but he does have trouble fighting while backing up, something that is not unusual for someone with his Octagon experience. He meets Kelvin Gastelum this weekend who I don’t see to be much of a test of if Brady can overcome the mental hurdle of keeping calm when being peppered by strikes.
From all reports, Brady took a year away from the cage to rectify the holes in his game, which I am all for instead of just wanting to get back into the Octagon and avenge a loss. I remain very bullish on Brady and will back him to bounce back to the winners list this weekend.
Sean Brady to win
$1.80 (3 units)
Punahele Soriana vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
On a stacked Fight Night main card this fight is just amusing. Combined Punahele Soriana and Dustin Stoltzfus have won just two of their last nine fights. However, unlike Stoltzfus who looks destined to be cut and spend his days fighting on a regional circuit, Soriana still has plenty to offer. The American boasts some serious punching power he just has a glaring weakness in his takedown defence. Stoltzfus won’t test that weakness and will give him the firefight he wants on the feet and will be knocked out pretty swiftly.
Soriana to win by KO/TKO
TBA (2.5 units)
