Action for Round 25 kicks off in Townsville this week, with the Cowboys hosting the Sharks. Both teams will be out to make a further case for featuring in the Finals and the expected intensity in this match should be high. The on-field action usually goes up a few notches as the business end of the season approaches and this game will be no different.
As always, BeforeYouBet is here to take a detailed look at this match. Stay tuned for previews of all sporting action from Australia and around the world this weekend.
NRL Round 25 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Thursday 17th August, 7:50pm (AEST)
Preview
The Cowboys had a week off in Round 24 to lament their 30-14 loss to the Broncos. Coming up against a team who was missing their star halfback, the Cowboys would’ve considered themselves a chance. That was not the case as they were outplayed for 80 minutes, with a late try only flattering them on the scoreboard. Even with more possession (53%) and a superior completion rate (78% vs 67%), the Cowboys conceded more metres and allowed 9 line breaks, while also missing 47 tackles. With their Finals hopes slowly slipping away, they will be desperate for a win.
The Sharks are carrying winning momentum into this game, turning their recent fortunes around with a 2-game winning streak and jumping back into 5th spot on the competition ladder. Their most recent performance against the Titans saw a commanding display as they dictated the terms of the match. It was a relentless scoring performance which saw them prevail 36-6. A 20-6 HT lead highlighted their dominance, and they didn’t drop their intensity in the second half. Averaging 9.6m per carry with an 83% completion rate, the Sharks defence was impressive; they allowed just 2 line breaks. This is enough difficult test for them, and their rediscovery of confidence should serve them well here.
Verdict
The odds for this game do not match the current form, history or expected outcome in this contest. The Cowboys are favourites ($1.58 vs $2.40) but it should be closer between these two sides. The Sharks have won 9 out of the past 10 games against the Cowboys, regardless of the venue. Despite an improving record at home (54%), the Sharks are yet to taste defeat at this ground in 3 matches. On top of that, they average more points in attack (26ppg vs 23ppg) and concede the same number of points in defence (21ppg) as the Cowboys. The loss of Kennedy at fullback wasn’t exposed last week but the Cowboys are also missing key players in Taumalolo (named in the reserves) and Holmes. This game should be far closer, and you must go beyond an underwhelming line (4.5 points) to find value.
Back in Round 9, the Sharks comfortably defeated the Cowboys but with both teams delivering uncertainty since then, it is preferred to invest around the outcome of the match rather than the outcome. It is no secret that both sides can score and concede plenty of points. The conditions in Townsville should facilitate a free-flowing match too. Take on the points spread for this reason. For the sake of picking a winner, the value on offer for the Sharks is too much to overlook but only if a H2H is desperately required.
Total Points Over 47.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
A Finals-intensity should ensure that the margin of victory remains within this range. Feldt has been dropped from the squad for the past few weeks and will be out to make amends. It is interesting to note that despite missing a few games, he is still the Cowboys leading try scorer, 3 clear of the next best. Mulitalo takes that title for the Sharks, leading the way with 18 tries and always a threat both on the ground and close to the line.
Leg 1: Either Team by 1-12
Leg 2: Feldt to Score
Leg 3: Mulitalo to Score
SGM Odds: $6.50 at TAB
