Geelong and Brisbane will do battle on Friday night for a place in the 2022 AFL Grand Final. Find our preview, match prediction, and best player prop bets for this massive clash right here!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season including the finals, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Geelong vs Brisbane Betting Tips
MCG, Friday 16th September, 7:50pm (AEST)
Geelong
Injuries: Jake Kolodjashnij, Flynn Kroeger, Sam Simpson, Cooper Whyte, James Willis
Geelong have been afforded the luxury of resting their sore bodies over the last couple of weeks due to their success. They have just five players on their injury list heading into the prelims, and you could argue that only Jake Kolodjashnij (test) is the only one in their best 22.
The Cats finished on top of the ladder and won their way straight through to the final four after taking care of Collingwood (78-72) in the first week of finals. It was their first test against a genuine contender since they defeated the Demons back in Round 17. They were favourites to knock over the Magpies in that encounter, but favouritism hasn’t suited the Cats well at all in recent finals campaign, so getting the victory in that sort of fashion will do a world of good for their confidence.
Brisbane
Injuries: Marcus Adams, Tom Berry, Oscar McInerney, Carter Michael
Brisbane have had a lot more luck with injuries this season and only have four players forced to the sidelines at the moment. Marcus Adams is a key defender who would be in their best 22 if healthy, while Oscar McInerney should return from a concussion. Jarrod Berry is another key player who’s able to take part this weekend after getting off his suspension.
The Lions were slight underdogs in their home final against the Tigers in week one of the finals but managed to get the chocolates in one of the matches of the season (106-104). They were then given next to no chance to repeat the dose against the highly fancied and defending champion Demons last weekend, but again were able to rise to the challenge (92-79). The Lions will now feel as though they have nothing to do after already exceeding expectation, and it’ll be interesting to see just how much they have left in the tank for this weekend.
Match Prediction
The last time these sides met was at GMHBA Stadium way back in Round 4 when the then 2-1 Cats handed the 3-0 Lions their first loss of the season. The home side were wasteful that day kicking 11.14 to the Lions 11.4, so it’s fair to say they should’ve won by a quite a bit more. The Cats have now won four of the last five games in this matchup and have won a whopping 14 straight against the Lions when they’ve been the home side.
Just like last weekend, the Lions must defy history and snap a bunch of streaks/hoodoos if they’re to knock off the Cats and make it to their first Grand Final since 2004. They would’ve gained a lot of confidence from their unlikely win against the Demons at the MCG last weekend, but on current form the Cats are a completely different kettle of fish. The Cats are riding a huge 14-match win streak and will be extremely fresh after playing just once in the past three weeks.
Once again, I expect the Lions to be brave and put up a stern challenge for 2-3 quarters, but the Cats have the class edge and should be too strong when the game is up for grabs in the fourth quarter.
Geelong 1-39
$2.02 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Cam Rayner was important last week as he usually is, albeit without hitting the scoreboard. History tells us he should bounce back with a goal or two this weekend, as he’s managed to kick a goal in all but one match after failing to jag one the weekend prior. Love his value here.
Cam Rayner Anytime Goal Scorer ($2 at Ladbrokes)
Hugh McCluggage is another Lion who represents strong value in the goal scorer markets. He’s kicked at least one goal in seven of his last eight games, kicking a total of 11 goals during that span. He might find it tougher to sneak forward against a solid Cats defence, but there’s still value in his price.
Hugh McCluggage Anytime Goal Scorer ($2 at Ladbrokes)
Max Holmes has become an increasingly important cog in the Cats machine. He brings elite forward half pressure and is also starting to hit the scoreboard regularly. Holmes has kicked at least one goal in six of his last eight matches and is over the odds again.
Max Holmes Anytime Goal Scorer ($2.02 at Ladbrokes)
