The English Premier League enters its busiest period of the season over the Christmas and New Year period, with 20 games taking place between December 26th and January 2nd. Liverpool still sit four points clear at the top of the table, can anyone catch them? We bring you our best bets for Matchday 18 below!
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
St James’ Park, Friday 27th December, 2:00am AEDT
Back-to-back wins have spirits high in Newcastle, with the magpies having a chance to put themselves in the top four race if they can knock off sixth placed Aston Villa. Villa bounced back from a heartbreaking loss on Matchday 16 with a brilliant 2-1 victory over Manchester City, which saw Unai Emery’s side leapfrog the defending champions on the table. Newcastle could be as high as fifth on the table by the end of the weekend if results go their way.
Both sides have turned around struggles during the earlier parts of the season, to keep themselves in the race for the top four. After starting the season 3-1-0, Newcastle went 2-4-5 across their next eleven games, but consecutive 4-0 wins over Leicester and Ipswich Town have breathed life back into their season. Villa started 4-0-1 before winning just one of their next eight games, but three wins in their last four games has steadied their season.
Aston Villa aren’t amongst the best teams in the league in either the front or back third, and although Newcastle haven’t been the most dangerous attacking team, however they are the fifth ranked defence having conceded only 21 goals. The Magpies have won four of the last five Premier League matchups between the two sides, which includes both games last season by score lines of 5-1 and 3-1. Aston Villa have struggled on the road this season, winning just three of their eight games away from home.
Newcastle to Win
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
City Ground, Friday 27th December, 2:00am AEDT
Nottingham Forest’s season continues to go from strength to strength, ending Brentford’s unbeaten streak at home to be three points clear inside the top four. Forest have won four of their last five games, which includes victories over Aston Villa and Manchester United. Once again Tottenham’s defence was all over the place in a nine-goal affair against Liverpool going down 6-3, Spurs have now lost three of their last four games. Tottenham are in eleventh place on the table with a 7-2-8 record, in what has been a horror second season for Ange Postecoglou.
Tottenham have gone from the third best defence to the tenth ranked defence, having conceded ten goals in their last three games. 4-3 defeat to Chelsea and 6-3 defeat to Liverpool illustrated that despite the flashes of brilliance they display, they are nowhere near capable of beating the better sides in the league. Tottenham are currently 0-3 against the current top four, and face an uphill challenge to turn that form around away from home.
Tottenham only have two wins from nine games against the current top in the Premier League, and have struggled on the road with a 3-1-4 record. Nottingham Forest have a 4-2-2 home record this season, and are the third ranked defensive side in the league. Unlike Spurs, Forest have a clear identity built off their defence, and they continue to find a way to churn out results. Nottingham Forest are outstanding value in this fixture, and will grind out another win to cement their place in the top four.
Nottingham Forest to Win
$2.30 (1.5 Units)
Chelsea vs Fulham
Stamford Bridge, Friday 27th December, 2:00am AEDT
An all London clash at Stamford Bridge sees second placed Chelsea hosting ninth placed Fulham. Fulham have drawn three straight games and four of their last five in what has been a missed opportunity to be pushing for a place in the top five. Fulham’s last outing was a 0-0 draw against bottom of the league Southampton, which was surprising given that Fulham had taken points off Liverpool and Arsenal in their prior two games.
Chelsea missed an opportunity to keep the pressure on league leaders Liverpool after being held to a goalless draw against 15th placed Everton. Chelsea had 75% possession and 12 shots to Everton’s 5, but couldn’t capitalise on their dominance. The frustrating result ended a five goal winning streak and was the first time since Matchday 1 that Chelsea failed to find the back of the net. Chelsea are the second most prolific attacking team in the league with 37 goals across 17 games, scoring 3 or more goals on six occasions. Fulham have only recorded three clean sheets this season, and could be exposed by Chelsea’s dynamic front half game.
Since 2013, Chelsea have a 9-1-1 record in Premier League fixtures against Fulham, and it hasn’t been a close matchup, with an aggregate score of 17-4 across those eleven games. Chelsea have significantly more attacking firepower than Fulham, ranking third in the league for possession and shots on goal. The pure weight of numbers will be too much for Fulham to compete with, and Chelsea will get back to winning ways.
Chelsea -1
$2.15 (1 Unit)
