In a previous article we talked about the “Laying the Field” betting strategy, how it works and why it’s a good system because it has small risk but the potential for big reward.
In the example in that article, we used the arbitrary odds of 1.75 to illustrate the system in action. But is 1.75 the right odds to use?
Obviously the shorter the price that we set, the less liability and the potential for a greater return on investment, but that also means that it’s less likely to be matched by two horses in a race.
So what is the sweet spot? What price will give the best return on investment?
Sorry to disappoint, but there is no single correct answer. The reason for this is that there are so many variables in horse racing. Every race is different. Track, weather, distance, number of runners and prices of the horses are just some of the considerations. There needs to be enough liquidity in the market you are trading on so that your bets are matched. Even something as simple as the race caller and the camera angles can make a huge difference. If the angles aren’t clear or the race caller isn’t on his game, then that can drastically affect prices during a race. Ever seen a caller announce the wrong horse has won? It happens, and can cause chaos in the trading markets.
The good thing about the “Laying The Field” betting strategy, is that it’s very easy to jump in and have a go. Play with the numbers, test different conditions and figure out what works and what doesn't. Start with low stakes and the risk is rather minimal.
So for someone wanting to give this system a test drive, there are a few common considerations that you should look for to identify which markets are suitable.
* As a guide, look for fields that have at least eight runners. Big fields equal more chances for horses to make a run, and while that can be a good thing, if the race is too bunched up then the market will be too confused to identify winners which doesn’t make good trading.
* Sprints are generally better for this strategy than long distance races, simply because it’s more likely to have more runners in contention at the business end. 1400-1600m races are a nice middle distance.
* Avoid any races which have a short-priced favourite. They’re short for a reason, and the money will be too heavily weighted on their success/failure. Sure, if they lose then it’s good for you, but if you want that to happen then you may as well just lay the favourite straight up. Too often the market will remain confident in a short-priced favourite, even when an outsider is threatening, and you’ll find you won’t get two bets matched. Look for races where the favourite is around $4-5 and there’s a handful of horses that look contenders around that price. Those markets are ideal.
* Watch out for track bias. For example, recent races in Randwick and on the Gold Coast have shown a strong leader bias. That is terrible for this strategy. Too often the leader will skip clear and never be caught, resulting in just one of our bets being matched and a loss on the race. If you see that trend in early races, then avoid that track for the rest of the meet. On the flipside, some tracks often see the rail go off and the horses piling home down the middle of the track. Hobart is a good track for this. Flemington is also useful with the longer straight seeing more horses tire on the line.
* Make sure that your race has plenty of liquidity in the market. If you’re betting on a race in Whoop Whoop and there isn’t enough activity in the market, then your lay bets won’t get matched and too often you’ll find that the winner is the only bet matched even though it was a close race. Stick to big Metro meetings before you find your feet.
Laying two horses under even money is also not the only way to lay the field to make a profit. You can also lay three horses under $3, four horses under $4, etc. The only problem with this approach is that your liability gets bigger and your return on investment becomes less. It’s certainly worth testing various approaches to see what works.
Another variation of this strategy is to place multiple lay bets on each horse, staggered across various prices.
Some traders love to lay bets at 1.01. That’s why you always see thousands and thousands of dollars sitting dead at 1.01-1.03 in the market. Sometimes it happens, a 1.01 chance gets beaten, and the one time it happens, these guys make a lot of money for virtually no risk.
Remember that this system is not about getting your bets matched when the horse reaches your price. It’s about people making mistakes and overreacting to what’s happening. You want to take advantage of punters betting with emotion, taking a price that is too short for the true odds of the situation. If you can do that, then you will make money from this betting strategy.
